2008: Golden Time in Gold Market

Pushed by increased demand from both jewelers and investors, China has become the drivin, g force behind the world's gold market in 2007. Chinas gold market this year has maintained its growing momentum with booming demand, not only in the domestic market but also in the international market.     

The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

演化视角下全产业链创新网络结构及核心企业行为对创新绩效的影响——以苹果公司网络为例

从理论上分析了全产业链创新网络结构特点以及核心企业行为模式与创新绩效的关系,提出相关假设;从开放性的2个维度,即开放广度和开放深度量化核心企业开放式创新的行为模式。依据偏最小二乘法,将结构和行为模式的表征变量作为自变量,创新绩效的4个表征变量作为因变量,进行交叉检验;最后选取1个主成分进行回归分析,检验理论假设。     

Effects of time processing orientation, agreement preferences and attitude towards foreign businessmen on negotiation adaptation

An experiment was conducted among Singaporean executives to determine how they adapt to a foreign partner depending on the partner's time processing orientation and agreement preferences, and their attitude towards businessmen from the country the foreign partner was from. Results showed that Singaporean executives tended to have monochronic time processing and preferred written to oral agreements. Further, when a foreign partner exhibited a monochronic processing orientation, these executives had greater liking for and were more willing to accept this trait than when he had a polychronic processing orientation. Liking for the foreign partner was also enhanced. In terms of agreement preferences, the executives showed greater liking for and willingness to accept the trait when the foreign partner had a written than an oral preference. Finally, willingness to accept the foreign partner as a business partner was enhanced once they knew where the foreign partner came from, regardless of their attitude towards businessmen from that country. Implications are discussed and directions for future research furnished.     

Pricing assets with stochastic cash-flow growth

We model the time series behavior of dividend growth rates, as well as the profitability rate, with a variety of autoregressive moving-average processes, and use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the appropriate discount rate. One of the most important implications of this research is that the rate of return beta changes with the time to maturity of the expected cash flow, and the degree of mean reversion displayed by the growth rate. We explore the consequences of this observation for three different strands of the literature. The first is for the value premium anomaly, the second for stock valuation and learning about long-run profitability, and the third is for the St. Petersburg paradox. One of the most surprising results is that the CAPM implies a higher rate of return beta for value stocks than growth stocks. Therefore, value stocks must have higher expected returns, and this is what is required theoretically in order to explain the well-known value premium anomaly.     

Time is not money

In an ultimatum bargaining experiment, we study how subjects bargain over the returns to their investments of money and time. The most notable finding is that a third of the subjects demand no compensation for their time investments, whereas almost all subjects demand compensation for equally costly monetary investments.     

Women’s investment in career and the household division of labour

This paper examines how partners in a couple share domestic work according to the woman’s investment in career. Investment is measured relatively to other women or to the partner. While previous studies mainly focused on the influence of wages and earnings, we extend them by considering more dimensions describing the intensity of the woman’s attachment to the labour market. We use the 2010 French Time Use survey to estimate a model of household division of labour in dual earner couples. We find that the more women are invested in career, the less domestic work they perform during weekdays, which is partly substituted by their partners but only on weekend days. The sharing of tasks is thus less unequal in those couples. However, women still spend more time than their partners on average performing domestic work, even when the woman outperforms him in career, implying no role reversal in the division of labour.     

Working Time as Gendered Time

Household-labor time and market-labor time are organized in part through the social structure of unequal gender relations. Generally, women do more household work than men, women's market work is undervalued, and the greatest rewards for market work accrue to men. The career model of employment is biased in favor of men who have few household responsibilities. Even noncareer seniority-sensitive job paths assume male incumbency with limited competition from household responsibilities. In this article we discuss the gendered underpinnings of the organization of time in contemporary Western society by critically examining household-labor time and the masculine models of career and noncareer employment. In addition to the important feminist goal of pay equity, we argue for a feminist politics of time that promotes alternative work-time arrangements for women and men to foster gender equality in the market and at home.     

Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.