A Partially Observed Model for Micromovement of Asset Prices with Bayes Estimation via Filtering

A general micromovement model that describes transactional price behavior is proposed. The model ties the sample characteristics of micromovement and macromovement in a consistent manner. An important feature of the model is that it can be transformed to a filtering problem with counting process observations. Consequently, the complete information of price and trading time is captured and then utilized in Bayes estimation via filtering for the parameters. The filtering equations are derived. A theorem on the convergence of conditional expectation of the model is proved. A consistent recursive algorithm is constructed via the Markov chain approximation method to compute the approximate posterior and then the Bayes estimates. A simplified model and its recursive algorithm are presented in detail. Simulations show that the computed Bayes estimates converge to their true values. The algorithm is applied to one month of intraday transaction prices for Microsoft and the Bayes estimates are obtained.     

企业横向并购后的内部供应链整合

横向并购已经成为企业快速扩张的一种有效手段，而内部供应链的整合将会决定横向并购行为的成败。横向并购后的企业为避免原有的两条供应链各自为战，并且为整合外部供应链打下基础，必须进行内部供应链的整合。通过运用业务流程再造、采用先进的预测方法、采用供应商管理库存以及延迟产品差异化等策略可以实现提高内部供应链效率和响应速度，提升供应链柔性的内部供应链整合目的。     

浅议异行业中公允价值的异同

公允价值在新会计准则中的应用引起人们的普遍关注，对于会计领域中的这一重大改变，资产评估领域应当予以重视。本文针对会计领域中的公允价值和资产评估价值加以阐述比较，弄清两者之间的关系，有利于资产评估业务的开展和发展。     

供应链管理影响因素及评价指标分析

本文认为,供应链凝聚、信息获取能力、区位优势以及信息共享是影响供应链管理成功的四个主要因素,对这四个变量难以直接进行测量。供应链管理成功影响因素测评指标体系是一个多指标的结构,运用层次化结构设定测评指标,从而清晰地表述供应链管理成功影响因素测评指标体系的内涵。供应链管理成功影响因素是总的测评目标,为一级指标,即第一层次;供应链管理成功影响因素中的供应链凝聚、区位优势、信息获取能力、信息共享等四大要素为二级指标,即第二层次;根据各要素的含义和内容,将四大要素(二级指标)展开为具体的三级指标,即第三层次。     

Research on Sustained Development of Supply Network Based on HITS Conception

21st century is a new century with the conception of ＂centralized on customers＂ instead of ＂centralized on products＂. A key feature of nowadays business is the idea that it is supply chains＇ competition, not companies. The present researches to supply chain strategy most concentrated on the operation level. However, the support level which consists of technology, institution, human resource and surroundings is also a factor of cardinal significance to impact the implement of supply strategy. This paper does further research on HITS （Human resource, Institution, Technology and Surroundings） factors to support the supply network sustained development.     

服务外包与产业链长度：来自中国的经验证据*

本文参考Antrs et al（2012）方法，利用中国1997年、2002年、2007年、2012年和2017年投入产出表测度30个省份17个细分行业的产业链长度，并在此基础上分析服务外包对延伸产业链长度的作用。实证结果表明：第一，从整体上看，服务外包对我国产业链长度攀升具有显著促进作用，服务外包每提高10%，可以促进我国产业链长度提升062%。第二，从细分类型的服务外包看，交通仓储外包对产业链长度延伸的促进作用最大。第三，分地区研究发现，服务外包对中部地区产业链长度提升最大，其次是西部地区，东部地区最小。第四，分行业后发现，服务外包对制造业和服务业产业链长度均有提升作用，但是对服务业促进作用是制造业的近2.7倍。     

论IE、TQC与VE的辩证关系

IE、TQC与VE是从西方国家引进的三种现代化管理方法,我国企业正大力推行。本文用辩证唯物主义观点阐述了三者间的关系,这可使企业在应用它们时,减少重复劳动,做到事半功倍。     

不断提升连锁零售业的竞争力

入世后面对外资零售业规模大、实力强、管理水平先进、以低价吸引顾客的经营策 略的巨大挑战,我国零售业必须大力发展连锁业作为战略方向并积极探索提高连锁零售业竞争力 的途径。     

Supporting others and the evolution of influence

In this paper we study environments in which agents can transfer influence to others by supporting them. When planning whom to support, they should take into account the future effect of this, since the receiving agent might use this influence to support others in the future. We show that in the presence of a finite horizon there is an essentially unique optimal support behavior which can be characterized in terms of associated marginal value functions. The analysis of these marginal value functions allows us to derive qualitative properties of optimal support strategies under different specific environments and to explicitly compute the optimal support behavior in some numerical examples. We also investigate the case of an infinite horizon. Examples show that multiple equilibria may appear in this setting, some of which sustaining a degree of cooperation that would not be possible under a finite horizon.     

射频识别(RFID)产业发展格局研究

近年来,在沃尔玛、麦德龙等跨国零售巨头的推动下,射频识别(RFID)技术受到了越来越多的厂商的关注。从射频识别技术的基本概念、分类和产业链结构出发,结合射频识别产业的标准现状,对近年来国内外射频识别产业的发展格局进行分析研究,并对中国如何发展射频识别产业提出自己的一些建议。