流动性约束视角下我国房价财富效应与最优利率规则研究

后危机时代中国房价的波动引起了广泛关注,如何利用以货币政策为代表的宏观调控抑制高房价透支未来经济发展的程度,成为当前管理层高度关注的焦点。本文建立了新凯恩斯模型框架分析房价波动如何通过流动性约束影响消费,从而揭示了中央银行货币政策与房价的财富效应之间的关系,得出最优利率规则中房价的最优权重随预期通胀、产出缺口、房价和名义利率而变动的结论。通过实证分析本文进而认为,利率规则比货币供应量更能迅速调控房价的增长和居民消费的扩张。中国房价上涨的财富效应虽然比较明显,但流动性约束的作用机制需要一个过程才能显现,利率调控的效果也有一个量变到质变的过程,从而在理论上为中央银行制定应对房价的利率政策提供了一定启示。     

Divestitures,wealth effects and corporate governance

We analyse the market reaction to divestiture decisions and determine the impact of corporate governance practices. We find the market reaction is significant and can be determined using internal governance mechanisms. We evaluate the determinants of the decision to sell using a control sample of firms displaying characteristics often associated with divestitures indicating that these firms may face the same incentives to divest but elect not to restructure in this manner. Our results suggest that a combination of strong internal and external governance may force managers to act in a manner that is incompatible with their personal desires.     

论主权财富基金信息披露法律规制及对中投公司的借鉴意义

主权财富基金(简称SWFs)是近年来兴起的跨国间新型投资形式。因其主权性、投资运作信息的不透明性,西方国家高度关注并采取相应的金融保护措施予以限制。因此,SWFs相对透明的信息披露法律规制有助于缓和母国与东道国之间的紧张对立。实践中,从各国国内立法到国际货币基金组织制定的信息披露规则等措施一定程度上减弱了SWFs的主权性色彩,促进了主权财富基金商业化运作,并有利于国际金融秩序的稳定。这对完善中投公司信息披露法律规制,争取良好的国际投资环境具有重要的借鉴意义。     

中小股东积极主义对债券持有人财富的溢出影响——基于网络投票数据的实证研究

互联网降低了中小股东获取和使用信息的成本,也方便其借助网络进行投票表决。本文借助2008—2018年深交所上市公司的股东大会网络投票数据,基于公司债券持有人视角,理论分析和实证检验了中小股东积极主义的溢出效应。实证结果表明:中小股东主观上基于自身利益的积极主义行为,客观上能够显著增加所在公司的债券持有人财富,即存在正向溢出效应,并且该正向效应在统计和经济意义上均具有高度显著性。在控制内生性影响后,该作用依然存在。进一步探究其内在机理发现,中小股东积极主义通过提升公司业绩和增强财务稳健性,进而增加其所在公司的债券持有人财富。该溢出效应在较差的内部治理环境、投资者学习效应和畅通的外部信息渠道下更为显著。     

基于市场预期的我国货币政策效应研究

本文阐述了动态时间序列指数体系的理论.利用动态时间序列模型对我国货币政策的效应进行了实证检验,得出了动态指数模型能较好地对我同货币政策效应进行度量的结论.检验证明,由于中国人民银行逐渐通过各种方式与公众进行沟通和交流,使得我国货币政策透明度正在逐年稳步提升.     

市场分割状态下红筹股回归A股的经济影响

市场分割其实是一种普遍现象。中国A股市场存在一定的泡沫,市场的大起大落以及可供上市的潜在资源相对匮乏,使得红筹股回归成为稳定市场的选择之一。通过对红筹股回归产生的经济效应的分析表明:红筹股回归将增加投资者的投资品种,有助于提升A股投资者的福利水平;由于A股市场普遍溢价于H股市场,红筹股回归的IPO定价可能会高于其原红筹股价格,因而可能存在财富从A股投资者向红筹股投资者转移的现象。     

如何激发民营企业创新--来自实际控制人财富集中度的视角北大核心

在我国实施创新驱动发展战略的背景下,本文从企业重大事项决策者实际控制人的视角,分析其财富集中度对民营上市公司创新的影响。结果显示,实际控制人财富集中度越高,企业创新水平越低。机制检验显示,实际控制人财富集中度会降低企业风险承担。这表明,实际控制人财富集中度越高,其对创新失败风险的容忍度越低,进而不利于企业创新。进一步研究显示,政府补助(机构投资者)可以发挥“风险缓冲”(“监督制衡”)的作用,削弱实际控制人财富集中度对企业创新的负面影响。本文还发现,财富集中的实际控制人更可能进行技术并购,以作为自主创新不足的替代。本文从实际控制人财富集中度的视角对企业创新的相关研究进行深化,并拓展了政府补助、机构投资者、技术并购在企业创新中发挥作用的相关研究;同时从实际控制人财富分散成本和风险、政府风险分担和机构投资者制衡约束等视角为推动民营企业创新的政策制定和公司治理改革提供参考。     

Wealth in utility,the Taylor principle and determinacy

Wealth in the utility function leads to the discounting to consumer’s Euler equation, enlarging determinacy regions and making it easier for the monetary authority to ensure equilibrium determinacy. We show that a passive policy rule which adjusts nominal interest rate by less than one-for-one in response to the inflation rate is able to rule out equilibrium indeterminacy, if properly specified, due to the presence of the demand channel of the Taylor principle and equilibrium determinacy. Furthermore, the extent to which monetary policy rule can be passive in order to avoid indeterminacy depends critically on the degree of preference over wealth as well as the underlying structures and parameters of the model.     

From structural to transition effects: Institutional dynamism as a deterrent to long-term investments by MNEs

The effect of institutional change on foreign direct investment is often conceptualized through the lens of an improving or deteriorating level of institutional quality that alters transaction costs. However, in the context of comprehensive government intervention in the past decades, this perspective ignores the potential uncertainties and costs associated with the process of institutional change. We propose that institutional change causes structural changes in transaction costs as well as accompanying transition effects due to uncertainty and learning costs. The extent of such transition effects is linked to the process characteristics of institutional change, e.g., institutional dynamism. In this paper, we examine the effects of institutional dynamism on foreign direct investment in long-term capital commitments and hypothesize a negative relationship between institutional dynamism and FDI, and a moderating effect of institutional dynamism on the relationship between institutional quality and FDI. Using investment data by US MNEs aggregated on the host country level, we find support for our hypotheses with some qualifications. We derive implications for the middle-income trap discussion as well as the ongoing fast-paced transition towards a sustainable global economy that is bound to shift attention from differences in the level of institutional quality towards differences in transition processes.     

Political connections and the super-rich in Poland

We study the impact of political connections of the richest Poles on their wealth level, mobility among the rich, and the risk of dropping off the rich list. We use newly collected original panel data (2002–2018) and we find that none of the variables capturing political connections of Polish multimillionaires is consistently related neither to the size of the largest fortunes in Poland nor to the chances of upward mobility on the rich list. While we find that political connections are related to a lower probability of moving down on the rich list, we also obtain that they increase the risk of falling off the list. Our results show that, contrary to some other post-socialist countries such as Russia or Ukraine, there is little evidence that the Polish economy suffers from crony capitalism.