Modelling short- and long-term effects in the aggregate demand for soft drinks

A dynamic regression model for non-durable commodity demand is specified based on the additive unobserved components seasonal model with causal variables. The seasonal component which includes retailer stock effects is modelled as a seasonal ARMA process with fixed temperature effects. The non-seasonal component incorporates both short-run consumer responses and long-run adaptation to steady-state growth paths. Aggregation effects on per capita demand caused by the increase of new consumers as real income grows are investigated and the resulting growth trends accounted for. It is shown that neglecting these trends in the long-run adaptation process is likely to produce biased predictions and misleading estimates of crucial response parameters.     

When is cash good or bad for firm performance?

Research summary: Cash can create shareholder value when used for adaptation to unfolding contingencies, but can also reduce value when appropriated by other stakeholders. We synthesize arguments from the behavioral theory of the firm, economic perspectives like agency theory, and the value‐creation versus value‐appropriation literatures to argue that the implications of cash for firm performance are context‐specific. Cash is more beneficial for firms operating in highly competitive, research‐intensive, or growth‐focused industries that are typical of contexts requiring adaptation in the face of uncertainties. Conversely, cash is more detrimental to performance in firms that are poorly governed, diversified, or opaque, as are typical of contexts where stakeholder conflicts, information asymmetries, or power imbalances can encourage value appropriation by other stakeholders. Managerial summary: Cash can create shareholder value when used for adaptation to unfolding contingencies, but can also reduce value when appropriated by other stakeholders. While cash‐rich firms have higher performance on average, with those in the 75th percentile having a market‐to‐book value 15 percent higher than those in the 25th percentile, we find that the performance benefits of cash depend on the context. Cash is more beneficial for firms operating in highly competitive, research‐intensive, or growth‐focused industries that are typical of contexts requiring adaptation in the face of uncertainties. Conversely, cash is more detrimental to performance in firms that are poorly governed, diversified, or opaque, as are typical of contexts where stakeholder conflicts, information asymmetries, or power imbalances can encourage value appropriation by other stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国际贸易专业学生社会适应能力培养研究

文章主要从探讨社会适应能力的概念及内容入手，分析了国际贸易专业学生社会适应能力研究的意义，然后在分析国际贸易专业学生社会适应能力现状的基础上，结合目前人才市场对国际贸易专业学生的需求特点，提出了培养在校国际贸易专业学生社会适应能力的具体措施和方法。     

Behavioural adaptation to climate change among winter alpine tourists: an analysis of tourist motivations and leisure substitutability

Understanding market responses to climate change impacts has important implications for the sustainability of Australia's winter tourism destinations. Utilising a framework incorporating push–pull tourist motivations and the theory of leisure substitutability, this study sought to explore how winter tourists in Australia will adapt to changes in snow cover in Australia's alpine regions under future climate change scenarios. The results of a questionnaire completed by 231 respondents indicated that tourist motivations were related to behavioural adaptation, and that there is a general preference among the current winter market for spatial substitution in the event of poor snow. Those motivated by recreation specialisation or snow-related attributes were likely to opt for spatial substitution, while tourists motivated by self-expression and après ski activities displayed resilience to poor snow conditions. The results demonstrate a clear division between leisure-driven tourists who valued participation in sport, and experience-driven tourists, who displayed higher resilience to reduced snow under projected climate change scenarios. These results have practical implications for winter tourism destinations, both in terms of targeting experience-driven tourists in the case of reduced snow as well as the longer term sustainability and viability of winter tourism destinations.     

Weather risk management at the Olympic Winter Games

The globally celebrated Olympic Winter Games (OWG) are highly dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. To determine the range of weather impacts on the Games, this study examines the official Olympic post-Games reports from 1924 to 2010. Impacts include preparations for the Games, holding outdoor opening–closing ceremonies, outdoor sporting competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and television broadcasts. The study also examines the range of historical adaptations that have developed to manage weather risks at the OWG. Three adaptation eras are identified, spanning the history of the games: emergent adaptation, technological transition, and advanced adaptation. Analysis reveals that while weather-induced impacts have always been a part of the Games, these impacts would be far greater if not for technical climatic adaptations. With the average daytime temperature of host locations steadily increasing from 0.4°C at the Games held in the 1920–1950s to 7.8°C at the Games held in the twenty-first century, it would be difficult to imagine recent host cities/regions successfully delivering the diverse Games programme exclusively on natural ice and snow. The connection between the evolving needs for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organisers and the growth of the Olympics in size and scope is also discussed.     

Perceptions of climate change impacts,adaptation and limits to adaption in the Australian Alps: the ski-tourism industry and key stakeholders

This paper explores perceptions of ski-tourism representatives and other regional stakeholders about climate change impacts, limits to tourism development and adaptation strategies in the Australian Alps. This area faces rising temperatures, declining rain and snow falls, and shorter skiing seasons. Open-ended interviews examined the perceptions, plans and attitudes of the ski industry and those of conservation managers, local government officials and Australian researchers into tourism and/or climate change effects in the Australian Alps. All interviewees accepted climate change was a reality; several, however, questioned the worst-case scenarios. The major tourism-related adaptation strategies were snowmaking and diversifying to year-round tourism; the success of these strategies will vary according to individual resorts’ snowmaking capacity and potential summer tourism revenue. Currently non-snow-based tourism revenue is worth only approximately 30% of winter revenue. Social resistance to increased water and electricity use for snowmaking emerged as an important issue. Competition for water, including the needs of ecosystems, agriculture and fire protection in this summer-fire-prone region, and fire management issues, is a key concern. Current conflicts between the ski industry and other stakeholders over climate change adaptation call for a collaborative adaptation and change policy within the Australian Alps.     

Landraces as an adaptation strategy to climate change for smallholders in Santa Catarina,Southern Brazil

Adapting to climate change has become a pressing and urgent issue given the alarming rapidity with which climate changes is taking place. Agriculture is strongly conditioned by climatic factors, but subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable because smallholders do not have adequate financial resources to adapt to climate change. Agrobiodiversity provides one option for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Landraces developed in the western region of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, are part of a deliberate strategy by smallholders to achieve a state of food sovereignty and independence from commercial sources of hybrid seed. The ability of smallholders to collectively conserve climate-adapted landraces indicates the depth of local knowledge and capability within local communities that can be drawn on to meet the future challenges of climate change.     

Factors That Distinguish Proactive Versus Reactive Exporters: Decisions by Export Firms in a Developing Country

This study explored factors that distinguish proactive versus reactive export marketing strategies of Zimbabwean export companies. It identified key variables that contributed most to the discrimination between proactive firms with high levels of adaptation of export marketing strategy against reactive exporters with low levels of adaptation of export marketing strategy. Data were collected through a structured multi-item questionnaire involving a randomly selected sample of 105 exporting organizations. The overseas experience of management and strategic orientation of the company, cultural values, and legislation were found as key variables that discriminated between reactive exporting firms using low adaptation of export marketing strategy from those proactive exporters with high adaptations.