利差演进、利差层次与我国利差结构分析

本文从金融学视角揭示了商业银行存贷款利差、中央银行与商业银行利差和国内与国际金融市场利差三个层次,并指出利差三个层次构成了有机的统一体.作者对建国以来历次利率调整进行了综合系统分析,勾画出我国利差变化的轨迹,得出以下基本结论:中国人民银行对利差管理从无序逐步过渡到有序,利差体系从扭曲逐步得到矫正,在金融管制环境下实现了利率总体水平的国际化"磨合".存在的主要问题是:存贷款利差考虑商业银行收益因素较多,兼顾国际化竞争不足;邮政储蓄转存利差在体现政策性的同时负效应越来越大;再贷款利差调整频繁和扩张太快,透视出金融宏观调控手段相对单一.     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

Optimal pair-trading strategy over long/short/square positions—empirical study

Suzuki [Automatica, 2016, 67, 33–45] solves the optimal, finitely iterative, three-regime switching problem for investing in a mean-reverting asset that follows an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck price process and find explicit solutions. The remarkable feature of this model is that the investor can explicitly take either a long, short or square position and can switch the position, with transaction costs, during the investment period. We run empirical simulations of such multiple-regime switching models. There are very few such attempts in the existing literature because it is difficult to find, first, an explicit solution to the problem and second, appropriate financial assets that follow the artificial stochastic process required by the mathematical model. According to the Monte Carlo simulations of the optimal pair-trading strategy, the mean daily Sharp ratio is more than 2.3, whereas the mean Sharp ratio for the historical simulation of the ‘stub’ pairs (combinations of parent/subsidiary companies) is 0.6886. We believe that the results obtained from performing the empirical simulations are remarkable and consider that the optimal switching strategy of the rigorous mathematical model is applicable to businesses in the real world. For the reference many pseudo-program codes are added, which can help to replicate the optimal trading strategies.     

Limit theorems for reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

This paper studies one‐dimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, with the distinguishing feature that they are reflected on a single boundary (put at level 0) or two boundaries (put at levels 0 and d > 0). In the literature, they are referred to as reflected OU (ROU) and doubly reflected OU (DROU), respectively. For both cases, we explicitly determine the decay rates of the (transient) probability to reach a given extreme level. The methodology relies on sample‐path large deviations, so that we also identify the associated most likely paths. For DROU, we also consider the ‘idleness process’ L_t and the ‘loss process’ U_t, which are the minimal non‐decreasing processes, which make the OU process remain ≥ 0 and ≤ d, respectively. We derive central limit theorems (CLTs) for U_t and L_t, using techniques from stochastic integration and the martingale CLT.     

ECONOMIC RECESSIONS,BANKING REFORM AND THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM1

In the 2010 London School of Economics and Political Science Hayek Memorial Lecture, the author argues that flaws in the design of the monetary and financial system were responsible for the global financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The crash reflected the unsustainable nature of the bubble induced by artificial credit expansion created by fractional‐reserve banking under the direction of central banks. Such boom–bust cycles will continue until radical reforms are implemented, including a 100% reserve requirement for demand deposits.     

王朝制度渐进视角下岭南土酋族属的建构--以钦州宁氏家族为中心

岭南钦州的宁氏兴起于南朝末，活跃于隋唐，与高州冯氏、冼氏并称，是岭南地区的少数民族首领，在隋唐文献中被称为越人。许多学者仅仅根据清代民国出土的两方隋唐宁氏家族墓志，就得出宁氏为“汉族移民后裔”的观点。而将有关宁氏家族的文献记载与出土墓志进行对照分析，可以发现岭南宁氏的真实身份为当地土著，宁氏将自身族属建构为“汉族移民后裔”，实际上反映了王朝制度在岭南民族地区的渗透与岭南边疆的内地化进程。     

西方中央银行沟通视角下的预期管理研究：渠道、手段及效果

近年来,中央银行沟通成为一种新型的货币政策工具。基于中央银行沟通视角,分析西方国家在预期管理中的渠道、手段及效果,结论表明中央银行沟通有助于预期管理。借鉴西方国家沟通经验,提出中央银行的有效沟通,需要中央银行独立性及问责制作保障;重视沟通的规律性,强调沟通信息的清晰和准确;注重对宏观经济运行认识水平,提高公众的经济学素养。     

业绩考核制度如何影响央企现金持有?——基于《考核办法》第三次修订的准自然实验

本文基于2010—2017年我国A股上市公司数据,以十八大后推行的业绩考核办法优化修订为准自然实验,选用双重差分模型检验2013年新的《考核办法》实施对中央企业的现金持有的影响,研究发现:与不受该制度影响的民营企业相比,新的《考核办法》显著正向提升央企的现金持有水平,且这一结果均通过平行趋势、控制组调整、变量替换、PSM-DID和安慰剂检验等稳健性检验;通过机制分析发现,业绩考核制度通过发挥抑制央企因超额持现所诱发的过度投资而提升央企现金持有;进一步地,业绩考核还促使央企权衡增持的现金资源二次配置策略,缩减超额持现的股利支付且转而将其用于创新活动,进而提升中央企业现金持有价值。上述结果意味着,业绩考核制度既可以抑制过度投资的无效耗费行为促使央企增持现金,又将增持现金用于“多创新,少股利”的长期价值创造权衡配置,优化增持现金利用效率,提高企业创新能力,进而提升企业价值,这为十八大以来有关中央企业高质发展和国资监管体制建设而进行改革的政策预期效果提供经验证据,同时为进一步全面深化国资监管、积极深入推进业绩考核制度优化修订提供理论依据和经验证据。     

鲁奎山铁矿成因探讨

鲁奎山铁矿为分布于滇中地区中元古代早期昆阳裂谷中,位于康滇地轴南段,赋存于昆阳群大龙组的菱铁矿床。铁矿产于大龙口组底部条带状灰岩中,呈似层状分布,层控明显。该类型铁矿为目前已探明的昆阳群中最大的铁矿,占云南省内已探明铁矿的20%以上。本文通过对鲁奎山铁矿的区域构造、矿床地质、控矿因素的分析,确定矿床成因,为更好的开发利用此类铁矿提供基础。     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.