Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

Resilience: Lessons from banks that have braved the economic crisis—And from those that have not

Resilience – a firm's ability to adapt, endure, quickly bounce back, and then thrive despite a catastrophic event – addresses diverse managerial constructs including performance (Carmeli & Markman, 2011). Our exploratory study expands this line of research by making two contributions: first, we develop and test a new revelatory measure for resilience – VOLARE – combining financial performance measures with volatility data. Then, applying this new measure to the financial industry, from 2002 to 2011, we identify highly resilient international financial services firms (IFSFs; e.g., banks) and compare them with less resilient IFSFs. Second, we assess three factors – bank size, home-market solidity, and product and market complexity – that the literature has traditionally shown to be highly predictive of banks’ performance. Consistent with our expectations, the results corroborate that VOLARE is complementary to, but distinct from, traditional financial measures of firm performance. We explain these deviations from traditional studies and suggest further research topics.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Abstract The literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings. This conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied. An alternative approach – of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries, measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to GDP and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time – reveals a more consistent picture. The most recent studies find a significant negative correlation: an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate. We discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation, and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation. Against this background, we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth. One hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy. Another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market‐friendly policies in other areas. Both explanations are supported by ongoing research.     

电子商务环境下企业物流的建设策略

随着电子商务的迅猛发展,物流在电子商务中所起的作用越来越大,成为日益密切的互动关系。物流是实施电子商务的根本保证,电子商务也促使传统物流向现代物流发展。本文将从现代物流和电子商务的一些基本特征入手,探讨在快速发展的电子商务环境下企业物流的发展前景和应对策略。     

Farmers' Preference for Farming: Evidence From a Nationally Representative Farm Survey in India

Using data from a nationally representative farm survey in India, we have analyzed Indian farmers' stated preference for farming as a profession. Findings show that more than 40% of farmers dislike farming as a profession because of low profits, high risk, and lack of social status, yet they continue with it owing to a lack of opportunities outside agriculture. Farmers who express a preference for moving out of agriculture are mostly those with small landholdings, poor irrigation facilities, fewer productive assets including livestock, and follow a cereal‐centric cropping pattern. They also have relatively lower access to credit, insurance, and information, and are weakly integrated with social networks such as self‐help groups and farmers' organizations. Importantly, the disinclination for farming, conditional on other covariates, is not significantly differentiated by caste, an important indicator of social status in rural India. Yet, within a caste group, the dislike for farming moderates with larger landholdings.     

Are some Indian banks too large? An examination of size efficiency in Indian banking

In this paper we use data from the years 1997–2003 to evaluate the size efficiency, as distinct from scale efficiency, of Indian banks. Following Maindiratta [Maindiratta A (1990) J Econ 46:39–56] we consider a bank to be “too large” if breaking it up into a number of smaller units would result in a larger output bundle than what could be produced from the same input by a single bank. When this is the case, the bank is not size efficient. Our analysis shows that many of the banks are, indeed, too large in various years. We also find that often a bank is operating in the region of diminishing returns to scale but is not a candidate for break up.

Measuring performance in the presence of stochastic demand for hospital services: an analysis of Belgian general care hospitals

Since demand for hospital services is subject to substantial variability, the relationship between uncertain demand, excess capacity, hospital costs and performance should be investigated thoroughly. In this paper a waiting time indicator to proxy hospital standby capacity is incorporated into a multi-product translog cost function for Belgian general care hospitals. The indicator is derived from queuing theory and improves on the conventionally used (inverse of the) occupancy rate. The multi-product stochastic frontier specification allows calculation of cost elasticities and marginal cost of seven hospital departments, as well as the degree of economies of scale and scope and enables identification of differences in efficiency.

多级政府级次下的经济增长与财政支出规模优化研究

笔者在巴罗经济增长模型的基础上,建立了一个两级政府提供公共物品的经济增长数理模型,说明政府级次划分对经济增长绩效的影响.并采用计量分析的方法,分别对我国中央政府与地方政府财政事权划分的合理性、最优事权划分标准进行了检验与测算.     

New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries

This paper updates and extends the time-series evidence on the convergence of international incomes using a set of 29 countries over the period 1900–2001. Time-series tests for stochastic convergence are supplemented with tests which provide evidence on the notion of “β-convergence” predicted by the Solow model. The evidence indicates that the relative income series of 21 countries are consistent with stochastic convergence, and that β-convergence has occurred in at least 16 countries at some point during the twentieth century. Further examination of the properties of the β-convergence test provides anecdotal evidence of conditional convergence in three additional countries for which the convergence hypothesis was initially rejected. Consideration of convergence clubs strengthens the evidence in favor of convergence. Analysis of the cross-country dispersion of incomes over time also suggests that convergence has occurred over the 1900–2001 period, particularly within certain clubs, with structural breaks associated with World War II in many countries causing a break in the convergence process.