Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Biofuel policies and the environment: Do climate benefits warrant increased production from biofuel feedstocks?

We examine whether climate benefits warrant policies promoting biofuel production from agricultural crops when other environmental impacts are accounted for. We develop a general economic-ecological modelling framework for integrated analysis of biofuel policies. An economic model of farmers' decision making is combined with a biophysical model predicting the effects of farming practices on crop yields and relevant environmental impacts. They include GHG emissions over the life cycle, nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, and the quality of wildlife habitats. We apply our model to crop production in Finland. We find that under current biofuel production technology the case for promotion of biofuels is not as evident as has been generally thought. Only reed canary grass for biodiesel is unambiguously desirable, whereas biodiesel from rape seed and ethanol production from wheat and barley cause in most cases negative net impacts on the environment. Suggested policies in the US and the EU tend to improve slightly the environmental performance of biofuel production.     

Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.     

Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe

Food consumption causes, together with mobility, shelter and the use of electrical products, most life cycle impacts of consumption. Meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption. A healthier diet might have less environmental impacts. Using the E3IOT environmentally extended input output database developed in an EU study on Environmental Impacts of Products (EIPRO), this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the European status quo and three simulated diet baskets, i.e. a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations, the same pattern with reduced meat consumption, and a ‘Mediterranean’ pattern with reduced meat consumption. Production technologies, protein and energy intake were kept constant. Though this implies just moderate dietary shifts, impact reductions of up to 8% were possible in reduced meat scenarios. The slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects. Second order rebounds were estimated by applying the CAPRI partial equilibrium model. This analysis showed that European meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market. Higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes.     

An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展耦合分析

为研究各省区市的旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展水平的耦合关系,采用SPSS17.0统计软件,利用多指标综合评价的主成分分析法(PCA),对我国大陆31个省区市的旅游产业发展水平进行综合定量评价;然后,运用多层次分析法,结合问卷调查数据,对大陆各省区市旅游目的地网络营销系统进行定量评价,得出各省区市旅游目的地网络营销系统综合评价值;最后,对旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展进行耦合分析,达到帮助旅游目的地制定正确的旅游网络营销及产业发展政策的目的。     

“两个中心”背景下浦东产业结构转型分析

在上海建设国际金融中心和国际航运中心的背景下,以回归分析、偏离—份额分析为基础对1993—2008年浦东经济进行了分析,发现浦东存在第三产业比重较低、第二、第三产业内部结构失衡、外部环境成本较高、创新产品转化能力欠缺等问题,并提出了浦东产业结构转型的相关建议。     

甘肃省县域经济差异变动的空间分析

以甘肃省县域单元为研究对象,综合运用SPSS、GeoDA和ARCGIS 9.2软件,对甘肃省县域经济发展时空差异分析后发现:甘肃省各县整体发展比较落后且经济发展差异有拉大趋势;县域经济发展水平呈现出西高东低,北高南低的趋势;1999—2008年甘肃省县域人均GDP中心,位于肃南县并向西北移动;空间聚集特征明显,经济发达地区位于河西地区;按照2008年甘肃省各县经济发展水平综合指数,甘肃省各县可分为经济发达地区、经济较发达地区、经济欠发达地区和经济不发达地区;1999—2008年人均GDP平均增长速度和相对发展率表明,河西地区发展速度明显快于其它地区。     

1990年以来江苏省区域经济差异时空格局演化及其成因分析

以1990—2007年江苏省县域人均GDP为研究指标,运用不平衡指数和空间统计模型对江苏省区域经济发展水平进行定量研究,并结合GIS的空间分析功能,系统分析了江苏省区域经济发展时空差异及空间格局演化。结果表明:江苏省区域经济发展在空间上具有较强的自相关性,在整体格局上呈现出一定的集聚态势,空间格局更多表现为苏南部分地区的高度集聚和苏北部分地区的集聚态势,成为江苏省区域经济发展的集聚核心区和低度集聚区,而苏中地区的集聚态势显得并不强烈。同时,针对区域经济自相关性发展趋势进行解释并指出以县域经济为单元的区域经济发展空间差异将长期存在。最后,构建空间数据模型对此种格局形成的原因进行空间统计学上的探讨,指出规模企业空间分布差异及人才空间分布差异是导致县域经济发展差异的主要因素,为区域经济差异分析提供了一种交互式的、可视化的新手段,进而为政府部门制定区域经济协调发展政策提供决策依据。     

我国C2C电子商务的地理格局及其演化机制

从空间计量经济学的角度,从省域和市域两个空间层次对中国的C2C电子商务发展极其演化机制进行实证研究。研究结果表明,中国的C2C电子商务发展存在由东部沿海到内陆地区梯度降低的空间分布趋势,空间集聚程度非常高,且对当地物流行业发展起到推动作用。C2C电子商务水平与当地的经济发达程度高度相关,社会经济观念的转变、居民受教育程度的提高、互联网相关技术的普及、物流业的迅猛发展以及适当的地方产业集聚等都是促进C2C电子商务发展的重要因素。