存款准备金率调整对流动性过剩的影响

本文通过对当前我国经济状况的研究,对央行调整存款准备金率所产生的效用进行分析,认为存款准备金率的调整不能从实质上解决流动性泛滥的状况。并提出政策建议。     

商业银行流动性过剩与区域金融资源配置失衡

本文从区域金融学的角度对我国商业银行流动性变化及其区域差异进行了剖析。研究发现，东部沿海发达地区信贷资金投放量过度，城乡金融资源配置差别太大，区域金融资源配置的失衡导致了全国城市商业银行流动性过剩。文章认为，疏通、引导社会资金流向，改善、优化欠发达地区的金融生态，防范、控制发达地区的金融风险，分步实施我国地区均衡开发战略，这是解决当前全国流动性过剩的根本路径。     

总分行制度下基于Delta-EVT模型的操作风险度量研究

总分行制度下制度设计缺陷及人员管理等方面的失误是商业银行操作风险产生的重要原因之一.在操作风险损失数据不完全的情况下,首先将损失进行分类,并选取总行对分行管理人员配备的误差、机构内部人员的组合误差、员工素质问题、分行出现问题后向总行报告的时间延误和总行及时处理问题分行的能力等特定的风险因子,继而借助Delta-EVT模型,采用Delta方法计算由以上风险因子导致的操作损失.通过计算,由于控制失效或外部事件引起的超额损失,再利用门槛值将两者结合起来,用EVT方法可以较准确地估算出在分行经营过程中和在向总行传递信息过程中由于制度设计不合理导致的操作风险.     

Drift Estimation of Generalized Security Price Processes from High Frequency Derivative Prices

This paper presents a framework for using high frequency derivative prices to estimate the drift of generalized security price processes. This work may be seen more generally as a quasi-likelihood approach to estimating continuous-time parameters of derivative pricing models using discrete option data. We develop a generalized derivative-based estimator for the drift where the underlying security price process follows any arbitrary state-time separable diffusion process (including arithmetic and geometric Brownian motion as special cases). The framework provides a method to measure premia in derivative prices, test for risk-neutral pricing and leads to a new empirical approach to pricing derivative contingent claims. A sufficient condition for the asymptotic consistency of the generalized estimator is also obtained. A study based on generating the S&P500 index and calls shows that the estimator can correctly estimate the drift parameter. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

实施负所得税制的必要性和可行性

负所得税制度首先由美国芝加哥大学的米尔顿·弗里德曼提出,后来又在西方经济学界得到了发展。本文则针对我国目前存在的弱势群体、城乡收入差距和内需不足等实际问题,分析了负所得税制度在我国实施的必要性和可行性,同时还运用负所得税制度的基本思想提出了超额累退所得税制     

中国外汇储备增长与流动性过剩关系的实证分析

随着中国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的不断加深,中国外汇储备的规模呈现急剧攀升的态势,与此同时,中国的通胀也长期走高,稳定物价已经成为当务之急。那么两者究竟有无内在联系?本文利用主流的计量经济学研究方法对中国2004Q1-2011Q4间的外汇储备和货币供应量的时间序列数据进行了实证分析。结果显示,二者确实存在稳定的协整关系,而且由格兰杰因果关系检验可知,外汇储备规模的急剧扩大是造成中国目前流动性过剩的重要原因。因而,本文最后就如何化解当前流动性过剩的现状从外汇储备方面提出了简要的政策建议,即遏制外汇储备失控增长,提高外汇储备管理水平,优化外汇储备结构和币种。     

Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade

This paper examines the role of oil market uncertainty on currency carry trade payoffs. We find that oil market uncertainty can impact currency carry trade excess returns. When oil market uncertainty rises, expected currency excess returns will increase. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of oil market uncertainty and, after controlling for traditional uncertainties, different types of oil shocks. The results also hold well in both developed and emerging markets, as well as for oil-related currencies, non-oil currencies, commodity currencies, and non-commodity currencies. Additionally, oil market uncertainty can be priced in the cross section of currency carry trade excess returns. This effect can be explained by investors becoming more risk averse under high oil market uncertainty and requiring greater compensation for bearing such risk. Moreover, our measure of oil market uncertainty, the downside risk from the oil market, is quite different from that of traditional aggregate measures.     

Effects of Milk Marketing Order Regulation on the Share of Fluid-Grade Milk in the United States

The share of raw milk meeting fluid quality (Grade A) standards in the United States rose steadily through the latter half of the twentieth century, but a shrinking portion of that was used in fluid products. Grade A milk exceeds the quality standards for the manufactured products for which it has been increasingly used. We present an econometric model that exploits regional and temporal variation in policy implementation to identify the effect of marketing orders on the Grade A share of milk. Results support the hypothesis that marketing orders significantly encouraged the growth in the Grade A share of milk.     

社保基金持股上市公司的股权融资偏好

社会保险基金的投资行为在一定程度上可反映出国家政策走向,因此,受到市场投资者的关注。而社保基金的投资信息只能通过其持股上市公司的信息公布才得以披露。这些上市公司为增加机构投资者的持股比例,提前将信息泄露给其他机构投资者,公司股价会产生一个在信息披露之前反应的超额收益,损害了中小投资者利益。     

流动性过剩影响因素的实证分析

通过货币的供求对比测度出流动性过剩,采用主成分分析方法研究了流动性过剩的影响因素。实证结果表明,货币存量的持续高位、经济增长、持续低利率与人民币升值、物价指数的高涨、外汇储备和净出口增加导致流动性过剩,资产价格与流动性过剩之间存在反向关系,各因素之间存在着交互影响。实证结果与理论分析结论高度吻合。