Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors

This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies.     

From ‘just a swimmer’ to a ‘swimming mother’: women’s embodied experiences of recreational aquatic activity with pre-school children

Increased academic attention on the gendering of leisure pastimes in recent years has highlighted the centrality of the gendered body in influencing how leisure is accessed, experienced and transformed. To date, however, little attention has been paid to how women experience aquatic leisure activity, the second most popular form of leisure activity in the UK, and where female participation predominates. This paper presents results from research investigating the aquatic leisure experiences of 22 women, with children aged under 3, in the North-East of England. A number of key themes emerged from the data, which highlighted the centrality of the gendered, lived body as a key social construct contouring participant perceptions in the swimming pool environment. Women reflected upon their self-perceived physical deficiencies when wearing revealing swimming costumes, particularly under the critical gaze of ‘other’ bodies, whether present or imagined. The co-presence of other bodies was also central in shaping lived experiences, and the presence of ‘dependent’ children’s bodies shifted bodily intentionality away from the self towards perceived maternal responsibilities and the management of perceived risks, including ‘dirt’ and ‘germs’ and the negotiation of the tacit rules of the swimming pool. Results also suggest that the emphasis on maternal responsibility in aquatic leisure activity and timing of parent-toddler sessions could lead to reproduction of gender inequalities and the exclusion of some fathers from participation.     

Money Allocation to Out-of-Home Leisure Activities and the Organization of These Activities in Time and Space

Monetary budgets influence activity participation and related travel as they demarcate limits on how people organize their activities in time and space. In this paper, we are interested in money allocation to out-of-home leisure activities and how this is affected by duration, sociodemographics, and time-location variables. Analyses were carried out by applying a seemingly unrelated regression model to a leisure activity data set. The analyses revealed that expenditures for out-of-home leisure activities are influenced by the variables mentioned above. Moreover, the results indicate that there is a substitution between expenditure of each activity.     

基于多源数据的环长株潭城市群县市区活跃度测度与分析

了解一个城市群内各县(市)区的活跃度可以为该城市群服务设施的配置及等级结构的优化提供依据。基于环长株潭城市群夜间灯光数据、客流量数据以及新浪微博签到数据,利用数理统计分析,对环长株潭城市群内64个县(市)区的活跃度进行测度,并对经济活跃度和人口活跃度的组合状况进行分类分析。结果显示:长沙市内五区的活跃度居前五位,而距离各中心城区较远的县市区活跃度较低,总体上呈中心-外围的圈层分布,且具有沿轴向扩展与多极点并存的空间分布格局;核心区的经济活跃度与人口活跃度基本一致,而外围区则不一致;从经济活跃度和人口活跃度的组合关系来看,表现出高-高、高-低、低-高及低-低等4种类型。     

Does Multinationality Affect the Propensity to Innovate? An Analysis of the Third UK Community Innovation Survey

The paper is developed at the interface between internationalization and innovation studies. It utilizes data on innovation from the UK Community Innovation Surveys 3 and 2 (CIS3 and CIS2) to assess whether multinationality affects the innovation propensity of surveyed enterprises. The indicators of innovation propensity—our dependent variables—are taken from the following CIS sets of variables: innovation outputs; innovation inputs; innovation outcomes (patent applications); innovation continuity/sustainability. The latter element is considered to be the ability of the enterprise to sustain innovation over a long period of time and the relevant variable is derived from both CIS3 and 2 data. This allows the paper to introduce dynamic elements into the analysis. Four hypotheses are developed and tested. Our main hypothesis states that multinationality per se (i.e. being part of a multinational company network) affects the propensity to innovate. We also test for three sub‐hypotheses related to characteristics of multinationality: belonging to a group vs being independent; degree of multinationality; being part of a foreign vs domestic multinational. The results show that all those CIS enterprises that belong to a multinational corporation—whether UK or foreign—are more likely to exhibit innovation propensity; they are also more likely to engage in innovation activities on a continuous basis.     

药品物流作业活动调查与工作分析

通过对药品物流企业物流作业活动的调查研究和工作分析,详细描述药品物流作业活动内容、目标、要求,从事药品物流作业活动人员所需职业能力;概括说明药品物流特点和药品物流从业人员必须知识与能力,为药品物流企业建立物流作业活动的标准操作规程,物流人才的培养、从业人员职业能力的提升提供参考。     

基于职业教育理念的《概论》课教学一体化设计与思考

近年来,在坚持"素质为核心、能力为基础"的职业教育理念,推进项目化教学改革进程中,高职示范院校的思想政治理论课教学改革也迈出较大步伐,正努力探索一条体现课程内在价值、反映时代特点、符合教育教学规律、适应学生发展实际需要的教学改革之路。课程改革是教学一体化的系统改革,需要在转变观念的前提下,对课程进行一体化设计。     

对创新大学生党支部活动内容与形式的思考

高校创新大学生党支部活动内容与形式是加强基层党建工作的需要。当前要找准党支部活动与人才培养的结合点,精心设计主题活动,积极开展社会实践,充分利用校园网络阵地和学生公寓平台创新党建工作,切实提高党支部活动的针对性和实效性。     

基于粗糙集的团购网站销售额影响因素分析

运用粗糙集算法,对所搜集的不确定甚至不完整的有关团购网站的信息进行推理,结论是：相对平均原价和团购种类,团购活动期数、购买人次、平均折扣率和热门城市数量对团购网站销售额的影响更重要;团购活动期数和购买人次越多,销售额越高;但平均折扣率和热门城市数量的多少对团购网站销售额的影响不大。可见,相对于价格,诚信在团购网站发展中起到更重要的决定作用;团购网站应通过团购导航网吸引更多的顾客,并实施差异化发展策略,进而以优质服务提高顾客的忠诚度。     

浅论财务监督在国家财产安全中的地位与作用

在地勘单位企业化进程中，财务部门对单位经济活动、资金运行具有极其重要的监督职能，把好财务这道闸门，对于防止国有资产流失具有举足轻重的作用。目前地勘单位财务部门财务监督尚存在对预算编制不够重视，费用支出管理制度不够健全，会计信息模糊，财务人员索质不高等问题。应从依法理财，健全内部控制制度，完善内部监督，加强社会监督，加大违法违规的处罚力度，提高会计人员素质等方面入手加强财务监督。