基本养老保险基金：做实账户制还是名义账户制？

我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险个人账户在本质上体现的是养老权而不是财产权,基本养老保险个人财户权益的根本意义在于保障企业职工的社会养老权。我国从2001年开始实行做实企业职工基本养老保险个人账户试点,这不仅未能化解养老金支付风险,而且加大了养老保险基金保值增值难度,基金贬值程度也随着做实比例的提高而增大。另外,做实个人账户抬高了储蓄率并抑制了投资和消费需求,对经济发展产生了挤出效应。为解决上述问题,应建立更加公平可持续的养老金制度,通过名义账户制从根本上体现企业职工的财产权和社会养老权,解决做实账户制所出现     

门诊保障制度改革:“以门诊换住院”的政策效应分析——基于中国职工医保抽样数据的实证检验

本文利用中国医疗保险研究会2017年职工医保抽样数据库(CHIRA)和66个样本城市职工医保门诊报销政策文件,将实施"门诊统筹"作为外生冲击和改革变量,研究门诊保障制度改革对参保患者门诊和住院服务利用、医疗费用支出的影响。基于双变量Probit模型以及OLS模型的回归结果显示,门诊保障制度改革会带来两种效应:门诊服务和住院服务的"替代效应",即门诊保障制度改革显著提高了参保患者对门诊服务的使用(年门诊就诊概率上升37.3%),同时减少了对住院服务的使用(年住院概率下降4.6%);门诊费用和住院费用的"支出效应",即门诊保障制度改革显著提高了参保患者的年门诊费用支出,同时减少了年住院费用支出,但不会降低参保患者的年医疗费用总支出。进一步研究发现,改革带来的政策效应因门诊保障程度、参保群体(在职职工和退休职工)和改革时长存在异质性。     

Determining analogies based on the integration of multiple information sources

Forecasting approaches that exploit analogies require the grouping of analogous time series as the first modeling step; however, there has been limited research regarding the suitability of different segmentation approaches. We argue that an appropriate analytical segmentation stage should integrate and trade off different available information sources. In particular, it should consider the actual time series patterns, in addition to the variables that characterize the drivers behind the patterns observed. The simultaneous consideration of both information sources, without prior assumptions regarding the relative importance of each, leads to a multicriteria formulation of the segmentation stage. Here, we demonstrate the impact of such an adjustment to segmentation on the final forecasting accuracy of the cross-sectional multi-state Kalman filter. In particular, we study the relative merits of single and multicriteria segmentation stages for a simulated data set with a range of noise levels. We find that a multicriteria approach consistently achieves a more reliable recovery of the original clusters, and this feeds forward to an improved forecasting accuracy across short forecasting horizons. We then use a US data set on income tax liabilities to verify that this result generalizes to a real-world setting.     

基于最小费用模型的航材调度研究

基于最小费用模型，建立了一定航材供给条件下，单架机缺件和多架机缺件的航材调度总费用函数；同时，考虑航材共享模式解决方案，建立了在航材共享条件下最小费用模型函数，并提出航材物流运输中广义效费比的概念，给出共享模式下广义效费比函数，并应用算例验证了最小费用模型函数和广义效费比函数的有效性和实用性。研究表明，航材共享模式可降低航材调度物流费用。     

Cost Savings of Contracting Out Refuse Collection

The article discusses the possible cost savings of contractingout refuse collection in the Netherlands. Our findings indicate that similar to foreigneconometric studies cost savings ofapproximately 15–20% apply to the Netherlands.Moreover, compared with the existing literature we show thatdifferent production technologies apply to internal municipal waste collection units and externalrefuse collection firms. Different cost functions have to be estimated for the sub-samples.Though significant cost savings exist on contracting out wastecollection, households will not experience these cost savings on a one to one basis. Privaterefuse collection firms must pay VAT while public entities are exempted. Thus, the fiscal systemhinders a more pronounced role for private refuse collection firms.     

A decentralized solution to the car pooling problem

Existing carpool optimization techniques based on the centralized approach serve policy-makers’ goals, but neglect the realities of participants. Moreover, absent strict enforcement, participants often ignore centralized solutions and maximize their own savings. We present a new heuristic, formulated and tested on real-world, and simulated car pooling problem instances, that mimics a decentralized carpool self-organization process. Our findings reveal system-wide savings similar to centralized models, and a potential strategy for improving carpool utilization.     

Convergent validity between revealed and stated recreation demand data: Some empirical evidence from the Basque Country,Spain

In a travel cost exercise, reported past visits to mount Jaizkibel, a natural area located in the Basque Country (Spain), are compared for convergent validity to stated intended future trips under the assumption that the natural resource's conditions will remain the same. In line with the results obtained by other studies, the empirical evidence of this application suggests that revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) do not produce consistent data, i.e. do not achieve convergent validity. The paper deals with the convergent validity literature in continuous-choice studies by using two-staged count data models for recreation demand. Differences in preference structures and welfare estimates are tested assuming both common and different data generating processes for the RP and SP data.     

一种考虑风险因素的供应链利益分配策略

供应链的成功运营必须以公平合理的利益分配方案为基础。对影响利益分配的因素要进行分析,并且制定出供应链中的几种利益分配模式。考虑到风险因素,根据供应链利益分配方案,建立起供应链利益分配系统的体系结构,这样才能完成系统实现的过程。     

企业合并会计处理方法之选择

购买法和权益集合法是企业合并的两种最主要的会计处理方法。购买法和权益集合法各有利弊，从理论上讲，购买法更为合理，更能反映合并活动及其后果，但净资产公允价值的确定有一定的困难。权益集合法比较简便，但会产生较高的合并收益且容易被用来进行财务操纵，从而对资本市场资源配置的效率有负面影响。目前美国财务会计准则委员会已提出废除权益集合法。但在中国，换股合并正逐渐增多，且考虑到权益集合法操作简单，在明确规定限制条件的前提下，应当允许企业采用权益集合法。