环境规制约束能倒逼我国产业技术创新吗——基于Lagrange函数模型的分析与讨论

环境规制的内驱机制是产业技术创新能力的提升，其能否促成环境规制倒逼产业技术创新?于此命题，将产业技术创新分解为治污技术创新与生产技术创新，建构环境规制与产业技术创新的传导机制模型，并做出经验验证。研究表明：环境规制强度与生产技术创新呈类库兹涅茨曲线关系，与治污技术创新呈正向关系；环境规制增强提升企业治污技术创新的同时，也强化了对生产技术创新的投入挤占，使得当环境规制达到中等强度后，生产技术创新呈现出不确定的特点。为此，应实施差异化的环境规制政策，强化对规制政策实施的追踪问效；完善治污激励补贴机制，强化政府对危废处理行业的扶持力与监管力，丰富环境规制配比政策设计；强化命令控制型与公众参与型环境规制工具的有机组合，健全环境信息反馈系统，倒逼企业治污技术的强化与创新。     

The influence of crediting and permanence periods on Australian forest-based carbon offset supply

Governments globally are developing increasingly ambitious carbon emissions reduction schemes that include significant emissions offset credits for forest-based carbon sequestration. Such strategies can present significant challenges in highly modified and intensively farmed regions where forest land use opportunity and establishment costs are high. This article evaluates the economics of land-use change via active afforestation for local carbon abatement in the Australian state of South Australia, a region with high supply costs representative of long-established temperate farming regions. We found that there is no economically viable abatement below $38 tCO₂e⁻¹, however up to 154 Mt CO₂e of abatement could be available up to prices of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹.Variation in current Australian Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) policy parameters related to permanence and crediting periods were also assessed. Recent ERF contracts involve a 100-year land-use change commitment (permanence period) and a 25-year crediting period where payments for growth in carbon from the land-use change is contracted. We compared outcomes of this arrangement to a scenario with equal 100-year permanence and crediting periods. We found substantial differences in carbon supply at some price points for a 25 rather than a 100-year crediting period. Under ERF parameters the first economically viable revegetation options occur at $42 tCO₂e⁻¹, however, we found a 69 percent reduction in economically viable supply at a carbon price of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹. The results highlight the role offset crediting policy can have on dis-incentivising land-use change and the need for landholders to be compensated fully for temporal opportunity costs.     

A critique of the paper by Kanabar,R. and Simmons,P. (2016), ‘To defer or not to defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model’, Applied Economics, 48, 58, 5699-5716

We suggest corrections to the paper by Kanabar and Simmons and provide analyses for deriving the internal rate of return arising from a UK state pension deferral decision and for an actuarially fair deferral scheme.     

中压电网中性点接地方式分析与探讨

针对中压电网中性点不接地供电网系统的不断扩大及电缆馈线回路的增加,单相接地电容电流也在不断的增加,改造电网中性点接地方式、合理选择电网中性点接地方式,已是关系到电网运行可靠性关键的技术问题,文中就电网的中性点接地方式进行分析和探讨。     

变压器中性点保护分析

分析电网故障及非全相运行时,不接地变压器中性点所产生电压偏移值,从而针对分级绝缘的变压器中性点,不接地时应采用避雷器和间隙保护来达到安全运行。     

低碳经济的目标与经济发展的碳中性

二氧化碳排放是公共物品,其影响所及并非一家、一国而是全世界。全球气温升幅越大损失越大,升温宜控制在+2℃以内。全球每年若以1%GDP的减排投入,可避免每年5%～20%GDP的损失。以GDP数量增长推动经济繁荣的时代必须成为过去,低碳经济的成长方式以去物质化为必要条件以去碳化为充分条件,经济发展最终与碳排放脱钩。低碳经济标示一个新文明的开始它不仅涉及生产模式、生活方式、价值观念的改变,还涉及南北两个世界、穷国与富国间发展权益冲突的新平衡。     

企业异质性、技术变迁与动态比较优势

运用中性技术和偏向性技术对比较优势进行理论拓展,异质性企业理论扩大了H-O模型的比较优势。与中性技术相比,偏向性技术具有扩大或缩小出口的作用;偏向于丰裕要素的技术进步有助于扩大出口;而偏向稀缺要素的技术进步不利于出口扩张。要素禀赋、企业异质性和偏向性技术进步使得一国出口产品具有锁定在密集使用丰裕要素的固化特征,难以实现比较优势的动态升级。这一结论不仅可以解释中国多年来未能实现出口产品的动态比较优势问题,也为进一步的经验验证提供理论支持。     

国有企业发展轨迹考察及改革策略选择

在次贷危机的影响下,我国先后提出了以四万亿投资和振兴十大产业规则为主要内容的刺激经济的一揽子计划。这些政策措施都是旨在促进国有企业更好的发展,但与此同时也引发了国进民退这一观点,然而,国退民进与国进民退都是从静态的形而上学的角度来看待国有企业和民营企业的发展。本文以建国60周年的经济大环境为背景,来说明国有企业发展的动态效率,并结合市场中重工业及基础设施等的正的外部性的存在来说明国有企业改革的动力。最后,提出了完善国有企业改革的相关政策建议。     

GMDH网络在短期负荷预测中的应用

文章提出基于自组织方法的GMDH（Group Method of Data Halldlin亩型神经网络并将它应用于短期负荷预测。与一般的前馈神经网络不同,GMDH网络的结构确定于训练过程之中,因而可大大提高神经网络性能。它能充分、合理地利用数据,自动进行变量组合,筛选及判断从而得到合适的模型,特别适用于数据预测。将这种用自组织方法所构成的GMDH型神经网络应用于广西某地区电力局的短期负荷预测,采用Matlab6．5进行仿真实验,证明其在短期负荷预测方面有很好的应用前景。     

Do central bank foreign exchange interventions affect market expectations?

The aim of this article is to study the impact of the Brazilian central bank swap interventions on the FX market from 2006 to 2013. In this period, these nontraditional interventions were the main FX instrument of the Brazilian Government. Since the central bank operates through a sequence of daily interventions in most of the period, we employ the event study method, which is appropriate to investigate cumulative impact of intervention episodes. We analyse the effects on the risk neutral distribution of BRL-USD exchange rate, which incorporates economic valuation besides the likelihoods. We investigate both changes in level and in the dynamics of the moments. Our tests indicate that interventions have little effects on the exchange rate distribution. We only find evidences of some impact on the dynamics of the mean, volatility and skewness over long horizons when the central bank takes short positions on the exchange rate.