贵州省雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究

[目的]从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防雷减灾能力4个方面确定13个评价指标开展雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究,实现定量化的雷电灾害风险评价。[方法]应用闪电监测资料、土壤数据库资料、GTOP30数据集以及社会经济统计和相关地理信息数据,基于目标、准则、指标层建立雷电灾害风险评价模型,采用投影寻踪方法获取指标权重,定量化分析致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及防雷减灾能力强弱,研究综合雷电灾害风险并完成等级划分。[结果]贵州省雷电灾害风险西部高于东部,整体呈现由西南部向东北部递减。其中西部的水城、六枝、普定、晴隆以及贵阳的云岩区、南明区、白云区中北部为高风险区,次低及低风险区主要分布在威宁及赫章西部区域、开阳东北部、平塘中东部、独山、荔波、万山、玉屏、碧江、思南、石阡、沿河的部分区域。[结论]通过灾前风险识别,可针对性的制定综合对策,为提高贵州省雷电灾害防御能力提供科学决策参考。     

基于OMP分解的宽带Chirp信号多参数估计

将信号稀疏分解——正交匹配追踪(Orthogonal Matching Pursuit,OMP)引入到阵列 信号处理领域,在OMP分解的基础上,提出了宽带Chirp信号多参数估计方法。首 先根据宽带Chirp信号形式建立过完备原子库,对阵列接收信号在该过完备原子库上利用 OMP做稀疏分解,从而由最佳匹配原子的参数获得信号的起始频率和调频斜率的估 计,得到宽带Chirp信号形式。在此基础上,再根据阵列结构和已获得的宽带Chirp信号形式 建立另一个原子库,通过计算阵列接收数据与原子库中原子之间的互相关矩阵的迹,搜索迹 的最大峰值找出最匹配的原子,进而由最佳原子的参数获得信号的波达方向角度（Directio n of Arrival, DOA）的估计。仿真实验证明了该算法对参数估计的有效性,并且表明与WVD ( Wigner Ville Distribution)方法相比,该方法能更有效地对信号的波达方向角度进行估 计。     

网络用语的语音隐喻现象探析

隐喻学研究受到各领域学者的关注,在语言学领域也取得了极大成效,但是在语音层面的研究篇幅不多。在大量网络用语中存在着语言隐喻现象,即含有一定形象意义的词变成了音的一个符号标志,夹杂在自然语段中代替近似音节使用,映射着一个较为主动的意象。网络用语的语音隐喻现象有其时代动因以及语言自身的音韵学、声音模仿学渊源。     

广义空间调制系统的低复杂度检测算法

针对广义空间调制（GSM）系统接收端最大似然（ML）检测算法计算复杂度极高的缺点,提出了一种基于压缩感知（CS）信号重构理论的低复杂度信号检测算法。首先,在多输入多输出（MIMO）信道模型下,通过改进正交匹配追踪（OMP）算法,得到一个激活天线索引备选集;然后,利用ML算法在该备选集中进行遍历搜索,检测出激活天线索引和星座调制符号。仿真结果表明所提算法的检测性能接近于ML算法,且复杂度约为ML算法的2%。因此,所提算法在保证检测性能的同时也大大降低了计算复杂度,实现了检测性能与复杂度之间的平衡。     

灰色关联投影法在高速公路沥青路面预养护措施选择中的应用

高速公路沥青路面预养护措施的决策,是预养护的一项关键技术。综合应用灰色关联分析法和矢量投影法,并介绍了该方法的基本原理,建立了一种基于多目标灰色关联投影法的预养护措施选择的决策模型。用实例证明所得的决策结果与基于费用效益比较,与项目级综合评判的决策结果基本一致,说明该方法应用于选择高速公路沥青路面最佳预养护措施是可行有效的。     

No-arbitrage in Discrete-time Markets with Proportional Transaction Costs and General Information structure

We discuss the no-arbitrage conditions in a general framework for discrete-time models of financial markets with proportional transaction costs and general information structure. We extend the results of Kabanov et al. (Finance Stoch 6(3):371–382, 2002; Finance Stoch 7(3):403–411, 2003) and Schachermayer (Math Finance 14(1):19–48, 2004) to the case where bid-ask spreads are not known with certainty. In the “no-friction” case, we retrieve the result of Kabanov and Stricker (Preprint 2003). Additionally, we propose a new modelization based on simple orders which appears to be powerful whatever the information structure is.     

台湾地区未来50年人口变动趋势预测研究

根据1983-2001年台湾地区人口数量及结构的相关数据,以2001年台湾地区总人口数为基数,运用中国人口预测软件(CPPS),选取了总和生育率、平均预期寿命、出生性别比、生育模式四个预测参数,用高、中、低三套预测方案对台湾地区未来50年(2002-2051年)的人口变动趋势进行预测分析。台湾地区需要在适当控制人口规模的同时,将两性人口和老少人口比例各自保持在一个适度的区间内,使人口数量、人口结构处于最佳安好状况,从而对台湾地区社会、经济发展形成强有力的支持并有利于人、自然、社会的和谐发展。     

RISK-MINIMIZING HEDGING STRATEGIES UNDER RESTRICTED INFORMATION

We construct risk-minimizing hedging strategies in the case where there are restrictions on the available information. the underlying price process is a d -dimensional F-martingale, and strategies φ= (ϑ, η) are constrained to have η G-predictable and η G'-adapted for filtrations η G C G'C F. We show that there exists a unique (ηG, G')-risk-minimizing strategy for every contingent claim H ε E ² (_T, P ) and provide an explicit expression in terms of η G-predictable dual projections. Previous results of Föllmer and Sondermann (1986) and Di Masi, Platen, and Runggaldier (1993) are recovered as special cases. Examples include a Black-Scholes model with delayed information and a jump process model with discrete observations.     

基于DEA方法的特色小镇的绩效研究

本文从“产城人文”融合视角对特色小镇的绩效水平进行评价。运用数据包络分析的CCR模型,从投入角度对江、浙等省市的19个特色小镇进行了评价分析,从有效性、稳定性、效益性、投影等角度进行分析,指出非有效DMU改进方向,通过计算推理出影响DMU有效的关键因子。通过分析现阶段特色小镇发展现状和存在的问题,有针对性地提出促进小镇发展的方针意见,为小镇推行者提供决策依据,丰富小镇建设理论及实践经验。结果表明部分特色小镇盲目扩张,投资过大,存在一定的资源浪费现象;投入及产出结构失衡,管理创新能力发挥有限;对于特色小镇发展而言,产业、投资、规划依次是影响发展的关键因素。     

The Lure of Work‐Life Benefits: Perceived Person‐Organization Fit As A Mechanism Explaining Job Seeker Attraction To Organizations

Drawing from person‐organization (P‐O) fit theory, we explain how the provision of work‐life benefits (WLBs) increases job seeker attraction to organizations during the early recruitment stage because of a perceived value fit between job seekers and the organization. Our results from an experimental study using a sample of 189 MBA students who belonged to two generational groups (Millennials and Gen Xers) and were seeking employment during a period of economic recession support our expectations. We found that job seekers develop higher P‐O fit perceptions for organizations that supplement standard pay with WLBs in their recruitment materials compared with organizations that supplement standard pay with health care benefits or offer only standard pay. In turn, such organizations are assessed as more attractive prospective employers. We also found that generational group moderated the path between P‐O fit and job seeker attraction such that Millennial job seekers were more likely to be attracted toward organizations with which they had strong fit perceptions than their Gen X counterparts. Theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.