上海国际航运中心建设中的系统要求

上海国际航运中心建设和形成的过程。实质上是构筑一个围绕国际航运大系统的过程．该系统由许多相互作用和依赖的子系统纽成，本文从系统工程的观点出发，对各子系统进行分类．并着重对综合运输和物流基础设施、多式联运、航运人文环境和人员素质、信息网络、营销策略等主观子系统进行分析，对航运政策法律体系子系统中的自由港政策、投融资政策、人力资源政策进行探讨，从而对相关子系统提出相应的调整、改善建议和要求．以最终实现整个大系统的协调发展。     

A costly state verification model with diversity of opinions

Summary. In simple models of borrowing and lending with ex-post asymmetric information, Gale and Hellwig (1985) and Williamson (1986) have shown that optimal debt contracts are simple debt contracts where borrowers repay a fixed interest rate whenever possible and lenders seize all the profit when borrowers default. In this note, we depart from their works by assuming that borrowers and lenders have heterogeneous beliefs, and show that simple debt contracts do not necessarily survive as optimal contracts.JEL Classification Numbers: G3, D8.     

Combining fair pricing and capital requirements for non-life insurance companies

The aim of this article is to identify fair equity-premium combinations for non-life insurers that satisfy solvency capital requirements imposed by regulatory authorities. In particular, we compare target capital derived using the value at risk concept as planned for Solvency II in the European Union with the tail value at risk concept as required by the Swiss Solvency Test. The model framework uses Merton’s jump-diffusion process for the market value of liabilities and a geometric Brownian motion for the asset process; fair valuation is conducted using option pricing theory. We show that even if regulatory requirements are satisfied under different risk measures and parameterizations, the associated costs of insolvency – measured with the insurer’s default put option value – can differ substantially.     

大数据背景下保险人合同解除权的制度重构

大数据时代的技术进步深刻地改变着保险交易双方的信息力量对比,降低了保险人对投保人信息披露的依赖程度。保险法律制度面对技术进步带来的变革,需要合理配置保险交易注意义务的结构,加强保险人的信息核查义务,限制保险人合同解除权的滥用,以实现保险交易双方权利和法益的再平衡。     

KTV火灾模拟及安全疏散研究

KTV是人员密集场所,一旦发生火灾便容易造成人员伤亡和财产损失。因此,对KTV火灾进行模拟,研究人员的安全疏散显得尤为重要。文章以某一KTV为例,运用CFAST软件进行火灾模拟与分析,将得出的上下层烟气温度、烟气层高度等参数与人体能承受的相对指标作比较,以此来判定在疏散设计时间内人员能否安全撤离。由此得出的结论可为KTV的人员安全疏散设计提供理论依据。     

Validation of an economic model of paliperidone palmitate for chronic schizophrenia

Abstract

Objective:

Model validation is important, but seldom applied in chronic schizophrenia. Validation consists of verifying the model itself for face validity (i.e., structure and inputs), cross-validation with other models assessing the same issue, and comparison with real-life outcomes. The primary purpose was to cross-validate a recent pharmacoeconomic model comparing long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics for treating chronic schizophrenia in Sweden. The secondary purpose was to provide external validation.

Methods:

The model of interest was a decision tree analysis with a 1-year time horizon with costs in 2011 Swedish kroner. Drugs analyzed included paliperidone palmitate (PP-LAI), olanzapine pamoate (OLZ-LAI), risperidone (RIS-LAI), haloperidol (HAL-LAI), and oral olanzapine (oral-OLZ). Embase and Medline were searched from 1990–2012 for models examining LAIs. Articles were retrieved, with data extracted for all drugs compared including: expected costs, rates of hospitalization, proportion of time not in relapse, and associated QALYs. Outcomes from the model of interest were compared with those from other articles; costs were projected to 2012 using the consumer price index.

Results:

Twenty-six studies were used for validation; 14 of them provided evidence for cross-validation, 13 for external validation, and four for cost. In cross-validation, cost estimates varied ?1.8% (range: ?12.4–20.1%), hospitalizations 5.2% (?12.1–3.1%), stable disease 2.5% (?5.6–1.5%), QALYs 9.0% (4.3% after removing outliers). All estimates of clinical outcomes were within 15%. In external validation, hospitalization rates varied by 6.3% (?0.7–11.3%). The research was limited by data availability and validity of the original results.

Conclusion:

Other models validated the outputs of our model very well.     

On the Natural and Economic Difficulties to Fulfilling the Human Right to Water Within a Neoclassical Economics Framework

We present a neoclassical economic model of the human right to water using a nonrenewable resource model inclusive of a backstop technology. The right is interpreted as a minimum consumption requirement the government is obligated to fulfill in the event that any one household cannot do so independently. Differing by income levels, households maximize utility by purchasing a composite consumption good and water from two distinct, government-owned sources. Facing physical and financial constraints, the government uses fiscal policy to address potential human rights violations. Reducing the analysis to two periods, we develop a novel approach to compare total welfare levels from a joint human rights and neoclassical economics perspective. We define a human rights welfare standard and discuss cases in which traditional social welfare measures would exceed, violate, or meet this standard. We thus offer a unique way to merge economic analysis with human rights research.     

浅述海南戈枕水利枢纽工程溢流坝段简易门式起重机的吊装施工

本文简要描述了在海南戈枕水利枢纽工程溢流坝段施工中使用简易门式起重机的吊装施工过程,指出了一些使用简易门式起重机吊装施工应注意的事项。     

浅析公差原则

公差原则就是处理尺寸公差与形位公差的关系的原则,这是教学中的难点。为了使学生很好的掌握这部分内容,我利用通俗的语言讲解难理解的公差原则中所涉及到的有关术语与定义,对各种公差要求通过实例、公式和动态公差带图进行详细的分析、对比,把这部分内容化繁为简,收到了比较好的效果。     

小型水库的安全隐患研究

文章以4个病险水库为例,探讨了小型水库的安全隐患。通过对防洪、抗震、结构、渗流、金属结构、运行管理等进行分析,得出大部分水库不满足规范要求,存在严重的结构、渗流安全隐患;闸门锈蚀、启闭设备破坏,防汛抢险道路雨天通行困难,无降雨观测设施,大坝的运行管理工作差。