The savings multiplier

A theory of macroeconomic development based on the novel concept of savings multiplier is developed. Capital accumulation changes relative prices, amplifying incentives to save as the economy grows. The savings multiplier hinges on two mechanisms. First, accumulation raises wages and leads to redistribution from the consuming old to the saving young. Second, higher wages raise the price of old-age care and, in anticipation of this, the young save more. Our theory captures important aspects of China׳s development and suggests new channels through which the one child policy and the dismantling of social benefits have fueled China׳s savings rates.     

El desempeño económico financiero y responsabilidad social corporativa Petrobrás versus Repsol

Alterations in the institutional environment, as a result of the markets integration process and the consequent alterations in stakeholders’ conduct are one of the important vectors of changes in companies’ behavior. In that context, in addition to their yields those companies happen to worry about their attitudes in relation to social and environmental factors. Thus, the corporate social responsibility (CSR) is seen as one more strategy to maintain or increase their income and to harness the enterprise development. The main purpose of this study is the verification of the existing relation between Social Responsibility and the economic and financial performance of two companies in the business of Petroleum, Gas and Bio-combustibles. The investigation was based on a comparison of social-environmental practices developed by Petrobras S/A (Brazil) and Repsol S/A (Spain). For the purpose of verification of the relation between social-environmental performance and the economic-financial one, a linear regression analysis was carried out.     

中国的国际贸易与外商投资

随着中国经济的发展,越来越多的外商决定来中国投资.通过使用波特的钻石理论来分析中国的市场,我们可以清楚的看到,中国的国际贸易与外商投资情况发展的很好.     

A Brief Survey of Modern Optimization for Statisticians

Modern computational statistics is turning more and more to high‐dimensional optimization to handle the deluge of big data. Once a model is formulated, its parameters can be estimated by optimization. Because model parsimony is important, models routinely include non‐differentiable penalty terms such as the lasso. This sober reality complicates minimization and maximization. Our broad survey stresses a few important principles in algorithm design. Rather than view these principles in isolation, it is more productive to mix and match them. A few well‐chosen examples illustrate this point. Algorithm derivation is also emphasized, and theory is downplayed, particularly the abstractions of the convex calculus. Thus, our survey should be useful and accessible to a broad audience.     

风险评估标准和儿童用品风险评估研究

本文对国内外的风险评估相关标准进行了研究，分析了标准术语、适用领域方面的差异，总结了产品质量安全风险评估的一般过程，并提出了儿童用品质量安全风险评估的构想。     

统筹城乡发展中农民权益保障问题思考——以成都改革为对象的分析

农民问题的核心是农民的权益保障问题。论文对成都统筹城乡改革中有关农民权益保障,包括经济权益、社会权益、政治权益的基本情况进行了调研分析,在经验归纳的基础上指出,在坚持中国共产党及其政府作为制度的整体设计者与公共资源的主体供给者前提下,从农民的权益诉求出发,落实并保障农民的权益。     

The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

Mr. Market's Mind: Finance's Hard Problem

The market as a mind is the implicit premise in any discussion on whether the market is rational or not. Still, its implications, in terms of ontology and epistemology, are hardly understood. In particular, this paper defines the market's version of the mind-body problem and labels it as finance's “hard” problem. Its denial by modern finance causes this dominant paradigm to fail in dealing with reality in general and to produce incomplete investment knowledge in particular. Finally, as part of facing up to this problem, this paper offers a glimpse at a practical approach which may enrich investment research.