供应链绩效的敏感性分析：长期视角

首先分析了供应链系统相对有效率和相对无效率情况下,供应链子系统的绩效变化对供应链系统绩效的影响机制和影响程度,得出一些有益的结论。同时提出测量供应链子系统重要性的基本指标和判断方法,帮助供应链管理者诊断供应链运营中的薄弱环节,提高供应链管理的效率。     

Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

Abstract

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period length should be modelled together in order to understand the intricacies of the underlying processes. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to connect all the above-mentioned pieces in a climate trend uncertainty quantification framework. Inference in such models allows us to observe some seemingly nonsensical outcomes. We argue that they must be pondered rather than discarded until we understand how they arise. We would like to stress that the main focus of this paper is the use of BNs in complex probabilistic settings rather than the application itself.     

利用RBF神经网络对装备完好性敏感性进行分析

装备维修保障系统作为装备系统的组成部分,对维持武器装备处于高水平的任务可用状态扮演着不可或缺的角色,高技术武器装备对维修保障的敏感性高。论文确立了装备完好性敏感性分析指标选取的原则,借鉴美军诊断装备完好性的方法,选取了本地库存满足率、工作区率、基地库存满足率等一系列有较强的实际意义的敏感性指标,使用熵权法确定了这些指标的权重,并对源数据进行了标准化处理．最后运用RBF神经网络对装备战备完好敏感性进行了分析,为部队掌控装备完好性提供了一个新的思路。     

投资项目评价方法的比较分析

回顾了投资项目评价方法的发展,分析了现有评价方法之间的关系。然后,从投资项目的收益流、投资价值、投资成本、投资时机、影响因素以及应用范围等方面,对已有投资项目评价方法进行了比较分析。最后,通过将期权博弈方法与其它评价方法进行两两比较,讨论了期权博弈方法的优越性,指出期权博弈方法是目前战略投资环境中评价项目价值最可靠、最合理的方法。     

CEO inside debt and investment‐cash flow sensitivity

This paper provides a new explanation for investment‐cash flow sensitivity from the perspective of CEO inside debt holdings. We examine the effect of CEO pensions and deferred compensation (inside debt) on investment‐cash flow sensitivity for a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms from 2006 to 2012. We find that the firms with higher relative CEO leverage ratios (CEO's debt/equity ratio scaled by the firm's debt/equity ratio) generate higher investment‐cash flow sensitivity. Moreover, one standard deviation increase in the logarithm of the relative CEO leverage ratio enlarges investment‐cash flow sensitivity by 50 per cent. This positive relationship still holds even after we take account of endogeneity and financial constraints.     

Revisiting a Theory-Supported Approach to Teaching Cross-Cultural Management Skills

Abstract

Cross—cultural skills are a major criterion for success in the global business environment. For American managers in multinational organizations, this means learning to manage cultural difference at three levels: self, interpersonal, and organizational. Since literature indicates that training programs based on cross—cultural and learning theories are more effective, this paper examines a training program that Serrie first reported in a 1992 issue of JTIB. The five related and synergistic activities discussed in the paper give participants experience in dealing with and solving real—world problems in cross-cultural management at all three levels. The process is reassessed in terms of recent theory, and to confirm the efficacy of this approach, a pretest—posttest experiment was conducted with a treatment group and control groups. Results show that the treatment group was the only one to show a significant (at p < 0.05) increase in intercultural expertisea measure of cross—cultural skill. Limitations and implications are discussed.     

河南物流业产业波及效果现状分析

针对河南省物流业产业波及效果动态分析,可以探求物流业同国民经济体系中相关产业的技术经济联系,进而找出物流业发展的一般规律,认清物流业同其他产业的关联度,这对产业结构优化和产业政策的制定是非常重要的。     

CEO政治关系与薪酬-回报的非对称敏感性

本文从信任角度研究了公司如何设计针对具有政治关系CEO的薪酬契约。具体来说,分析并验证了两个推论:第一,由于股东对CEO不完全信任,CEO现金薪酬对负股票回报的敏感性要大于对正股票回报的敏感性;第二,CEO的代表委员类政治关系会增进股东对CEO的信任,从而这类CEO薪酬-回报的非对称敏感程度较低。本文从薪酬契约角度发展了当前高管政治关系的研究,并且为薪酬契约设计研究提供了新的经验证据。     

Service Quality and Customers' Willingness to Pay More for Travel Services

Abstract

Increasingly sophisticated and price conscious consumers have combined with forces of globalisation and electronic commerce to create new challenges for travel agents. To maintain efficiency and profitability, travel agents need to know the links between service quality and customers' willingness to pay more (WTPM). These links are explored through measuring customer perceptions (N = 122) of service quality, loyalty and WTPM. The results revealed firstly that while many consumers were able to pay more for travel services, fewer were willing to do so. Secondly, overall service quality and its underlying dimensions were positively associated with selected WTPM items. These findings support and extend previous studies on the service quality-behavioural intentions link and provide practical implications for the travel industry in relation to a differentiated price and service strategy.     

Causal Effects of Regulatory, Organizational and Personal Factors on Ethical Sensitivity

Prior researchers have studied individual components of a theoretical decision-making model. This paper presents the results of a more complete study of the model components and presents limited support of theory. The study examines the relative importance of regulatory, organizational, and personal constructs on an individual's ethical sensitivity. Auditors from the major international accounting firms, located in two southeastern cities, are surveyed. Structural equation modeling is used to allow for the simultaneous evaluation of the three constructs of interest. The results indicate that the regulatory and organizational constructs are negatively correlated with the personal experience construct. The three constructs are not significant causal factors on ethical sensitivity. This result may be due to the manner in which ethical sensitivity is typically measured or may indicate that the complexity of the ethical decision-making process is not fully captured in the theoretical models. Thus, the models suggested in the prior literature and the results presented in prior studies of the individual components may need to be reconsidered.