Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Why principals tolerate biases of inaccurate agents

Some agents are more accurate than others in estimating the best policy. The more accurately an agent estimates a policy's effects, the more he will resist biases, such as bribes from a special interest. Thus, a special interest needs to pay a larger bribe to an accurate agent than to an inaccurate agent. The accurate agent who is biased will then more likely cause harm than does an inaccurate agent who favors the special interest. Therefore, the principal may gain more from controlling biases of an accurate agent than of an inaccurate one. Thus, high ability of public officials may be associated with little corruption.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?

Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its farmers via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm and nonfarm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession, are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm–nonfarm income inequality may well rise within China but rural–urban income inequality need not. The article concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.     

我国劳动力流动的动态和预期经济效应分析

劳动力流动是市场机制发挥配置资源作用的表现。从静态分析看,劳动力流动调剂了供需双方缺口,提高了整个社会福利水平。从动态角度看,我国的中心城市和经济先发展地区具有吸引资金、技术和知识资本的优越条件,决定着劳动力流动方向,而且因累积循环作用,引起回波效应大于扩散效     

对纳税筹划问题的理性思考

纳税筹划近年来日益受到人们的关注,但国内研究多侧重于筹划策略和方法。本文试图从理论上对纳税筹划的必然性、可能性及其经济和社会效应进行较深入的探讨,完善纳税筹划的指导思想,纠正对其错误的认识。     

美国调节区域经济差异的财政措施及启示

美国的地理位置和历史文化决定了美国区域经济的发展严重不平衡.本文分析了美国政府对落后地区经济的财政调节措施,这对我国在市场经济条件下调节区域经济,推进西部大开发,一定具有深刻的启示.     

重庆市城市土地经济效益评价

从产出和投入两方面构建城市土地经济效益评价的指标体系,采用层次分析法对重庆城市土地的经济效益进行评价,可知:重庆城市土地的经济效益总体水平较低、波动较大,重庆城市近年来投入偏高影响了土地经济效益,而且重庆城市土地利用的集约化水平不高.     

成都四大物流园区错位发展研究

物流园区工商业态的不同而产生的不同的物流需求,再加上交通条件和运输方式的差别,使物流园区在功能上具有不同类型.成都市四大物流园区具有不同的工商业基础和交通条件,应发挥各自的区位优势,进行正确的功能定位,以错位发展实现互补共赢.