结构性去杠杆下的中国宏观经济*——2018年中期中国宏观经济分析与预测

2018年以来中国经济平稳运行，物价水平稳定，就业形势整体向好，经济增长质量稳步提升。不过，当前中国经济仍然面临一定的下行压力，尤其需要警惕消费增速过快下滑、宏观税负进一步加重、民间投资复苏乏力、部分企业效益状况显著恶化、去杠杆过程中金融体系不稳定性加剧等主要风险点。此外，杠杆率高企是现阶段中国经济面临的突出问题，而且中国的杠杆率在不同部门之间以及各部门内部均体现出明显的结构性特点。为此，中央在2018年专门提出了“结构性去杠杆”的新思路。在“结构性去杠杆”稳步推进的大背景下，宏观政策既要积极应对经济下行压力，谨防去杠杆带来的经济增速超预期下滑风险，又要激发经济内生增长动力，促使经济实现长期可持续发展和“高质量发展”。     

供给侧改革视角下的养老旅游产业发展研究--以广东省阳江市为例

供给侧结构性改革作为适应和引领经济发展新常态的重大创新,用改革的办法对错配的供需结构和扭曲的要素配置进行矫正,根据需求结构变化及时优化供给结构,实现资源优化配置和经济长期均衡发展。阳江作为滨海旅游城市,应抓住机遇,深化养老旅游产业供给侧结构性改革,优化养老旅游产业的供给结构,合理配置养老旅游资源,扩大养老旅游服务的有效供给,推进养老旅游产业的持续健康发展。     

Latent vs. Observed Variables: Analysis of Irrigation Water Efficiency Using SEM and SUR

In this paper we compare conceptualising single factor technical and allocative efficiency as indicators of a single latent variable, or as separate observed variables. In the former case, the impacts on both efficiency types are analysed by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), in the latter by seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). We compare estimation results of the two approaches based on a dataset on single factor irrigation water use efficiency obtained from a survey of 360 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China. The main methodological findings are that SEM allows identification of the most important dimension of irrigation water efficiency (technical efficiency) via comparison of their factor scores and reliability. Moreover, it reduces multicollinearity and attenuation bias. It thus is preferable to SUR. The SEM estimates show that perception of water scarcity is the most important positive determinant of both types of efficiency, followed by irrigation infrastructure, income and water price. Furthermore, there is a strong negative reverse effect from efficiency on perception.     

审视新结构经济学:一个多维视角

要素禀赋论又被称为要素比例理论,被誉为国际贸易理论的一大柱石. 新结构经济学以要素禀赋理论为基础,将一国的产业结构变迁归因于要素禀赋结构的变化.本文的分析表明:新结构经济学忽视了某些重要的历史因素和现实因素;如果按照新结构经济学的建议来制定一国的发展战略,企业在要素使用结构上将会高度一致,从而可能导致一国经济在面临外部冲击时产生巨大波动.     

Financial functional analysis: a conceptual framework for understanding the changing financial system

The financial system is currently undergoing a revolution brought about by e-finance, digital convergence, new market entrants and government-encouraged competition. New market entrants such as Apple, Alibaba, Facebook and Google come from industries such as IT, retail, social media and telecoms, and, therefore, do not fit comfortably within traditional financial institutional structures. A functional perspective might provide more practical insights into this revolution; however, the functional perspective has had a limited impact. This paper will investigate the benefits and limitations of financial functional analysis; probe the underpinning principles of sociology’s structural functional analysis; revisit Merton and Bodie’s (1995) six core financial functions in relation to new entrants in the financial landscape; and, finally, argue that in the new financial environment, functional analysis provides a more coherent and explanatory framework of the financial system for students and practitioners alike.     

转型期中国土地利用的时序优化与空间释放

随着中国经济快速发展和人口集聚，建设用地需求快速增加，土地供需矛盾日益突出，资源保护和管理的压力逐渐加大。中国经济已步入新常态，经济结构转型倒逼土地供应结构优化调整。发达国家城镇化发展阶段起步较早，在土地节约集约利用与管理方面积累了宝贵经验。结合中国城市土地利用现状，借鉴美国、英国、德国等发达国家土地利用与管理经验，可从盘活存量土地、提高土地供给精准度、建立多元化供地机制三方面实现土地节约集约利用及有效管理，促进供给侧结构性改革。     

Empowerment and resident support for tourism in rural Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): the case of Pomerania,Poland

Despite empowerment being a crucial component of sustainable tourism, few scholars have quantitatively operationalized empowerment and looked at how it applies to rural societies within the post-communist European Union (EU) member states. Knowing the high priority of sustainable rural development goals within the EU, empowering residents within these post-communist societies has become a pertinent issue especially where those societies appear more reluctant to engaging in democratic ways of decision-making. In response to this gap, this study tests the cross-cultural validity of the Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale, and then evaluates how empowerment predicts residents’ support for tourism within the municipality of Choczewo, Pomerania, Poland. Using a theoretical perspective that blends Social Exchange Theory with Weber's Theory of Formal and Substantive Rationality, these non-economic empowerment dimensions are coupled with a measure of resident perceptions of economically benefiting from tourism to see if rural residents in Choczewo, Poland, are more swayed by the economic or non-economic benefits of tourism. Results show that residents within this Central and Eastern Europe setting are more influenced by the pride and self-esteem boost associated with psychological empowerment and the perceptions of increased community cohesion (i.e. social empowerment) than the economic promises of tourism.     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Integration of financial and management accounting systems: The mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness

Two fundamental options exist for management accounting system (MAS) design: Either financial records can be used as a database for management accounting (integrated accounting system design), or the MAS can be based upon a separate system, i.e., a third set of books beside financial and tax accounting records. Since the 1990s, many German-speaking firms have changed from the second to the first option, which has instigated a highly controversial debate.Our paper contributes to this debate by empirically analyzing (1) whether the integration of financial and management accounting has a positive impact on controllership effectiveness, and (2) what causal inferences relate both variables. We use structural equation modelling for a sample of 149 dyads surveyed from German top 1500 firms. We identify no significant effect of the technical aspects of MAS integration, but a fully mediating influence of a consistent financial language on controllership effectiveness. Our results thus imply that consistency with financial reporting is an important property of MAS design from management's point of view.