桂林旅游产品结构调整的研究

“十一五”期间桂林旅游产品面临如何调整产品结构，增强旅游服务功能与经济效益。结合桂林特色优势旅游资源开发项目规划研究．探讨以优势资源为主线、以文化旅游为重点提升观光型旅游产品竞争力；以市场需求为目标，开发不同类型的休闲度假产品，完善旅游服务功能；以整合优势资源，差异性发展特色旅游片区．增强桂林旅游整体实力，从而促进桂林旅游的可持续发展。     

烟台市第三产业滞后的原因分析及发展对策

分析了烟台市第三产业发展中面临的主要挑战,研究了服务业所占比重偏低的深层次原因,提出了加快烟台市第三产业发展的对策,认为应充分认识经济发展与第三产业的关系,加快城市化进程,优化服务业结构,制定科学合理的规划,建立良好的现代服务业市场环境和秩序。     

养老金制度的结构性改革与寿险公司的市场拓展

OECD国家养老金制度的结构性改革体现在两个层面：一是养老金制度整体结构的调整；二是政府主导下的公共养老金计划运行机制的转变。基于OECD国家经验数据的回归分析，国家公共养老金计划的保障水平与商业寿险深度之间具有高度负相关性。立足于我国养老金制度改革的政策取向，寿险公司应积极致力于养老金市场拓展，包括谋求参与国家基本养老保险个人账户养老金的发放及个人账户积累养老基金的投资运营；积极参与企业年金市场开拓，充当企业年金基金的法人受托机构；调整寿险产品定位，大力开拓城镇和农村商业养老保险市场。     

金融发展理论中“金融发展”涵义的演进

戈德史密斯（1969）和爱德华·肖（1973）分别对发达国家和落后国家的金融发展状况进行了实证研究，得出了落后国家经济之所以落后，主要是因为其金融发展与发达国家之间存在着明显的差异的结论，由此提出了金融深化的观点，标志着金融发展理论的形成。在金融发展理论的指导下，许多落后国家纷纷改革其金融体制，推行金融自由化，以促进其金融发展。然而20世纪90年代以后，全球金融危机的频繁爆发，引起了人们对金融发展理论的反思。金融发展理论的再度兴起，使金融发展的涵义不断得到丰富与发展，金融发展涵义从结构观、制度观向功能观和环境观逐步演进。     

农业发展与经济增长的变结构协整关系研究

运用变结构协整理论研究我国农业发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,采用循序检验法确定变结构点,发现在1961年和1980年农业发展与经济增长均衡关系发生突变;对1952～2003年的数据进行变结构协整检验,得到两段变结构形式,表现为参数变结构的水平趋势项飘移型和状态开关型协整关系,最后建立了误差修正模型。     

投入产出乘数模型与其扩展方法

在投入产出模型里引入凯恩斯乘数理论，建立能够计算结构化乘数的投入产出乘数模型，是近年来投入产出领域探讨较多的一个问题。从前提假设、乘数效应的传导机制和最终推导结果等方面对凯恩斯乘数模型和投入产出乘数模型进行比较，指出建立投入产出乘数模型将凯恩斯乘数进行结构化处理，应该从放宽前提假设条件入手，并以引入列向旁侧效应为例对原模型进行了扩展。     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy

Many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances. Increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem. The input-output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows. In this article a specificmethod in input-output analysis is reviewed,namely Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA).It is based on comparative static analysis,which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects. SDA has beenapplied, for example, to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use,CO₂-emissions and various other pollutantsand resources. This article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition, in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues.Furthermore, the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies.     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001