Unconventional monetary policy in emerging markets

Channels of monetary transmission likely to work in an emerging market (EM) are presented. The Indian accommodative policy cycle, and the papers in this special issue, is used to analyse unconventional aspects of EM monetary policy. It is argued that conditions used to justify unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies routinely hold in EMs.     

基于细化社会核算矩阵的突发公共事件产业影响分析

根据最新的2007年中国投入产出表,再结合其他数据编制的细化社会核算矩阵,可以用来分析突发公共事件的产业总影响和产业间影响。研究发现:劳动密集型产业以及与其他产业具有较高关联度的产业,受突发公共事件冲击的总产出影响较大;而同一突发公共事件冲击所带来的经济影响在不同产业间的分布差异较大。了解这些影响的大小,对于突发公共事件的优化管理具有重要意义。     

论非常规石油的替代性问题

随着常规石油产量的停滞不前和油价的大幅上涨,非常规石油普遍被认为是常规石油的替代品。但是,由于非常规石油可采储量并不多、生产存在许多问题、投资存在较大风险,以及劳动力短缺和易受东道国政策影响等等,因此,非常规石油产量难以大幅提高,并不能有效替代常规石油,其只能在一定程度上补充常规石油生产的不足,并延长石油时代的时间。对非常规石油不能抱过高的期望,而应坚持能源多元化战略,以维护中国能源安全和保持经济的持续、稳定、健康发展。     

来华留学生突发事件处理机制的研究

随着中国经济的发展,留学生教育也随之发展起来,有越来越多的国外学生来华学习。近几年,留学生突发事件发生率不断增加,严重影响了学校正常教学管理工作的正常进行。通过对留学生突发事件的调研和分析发现留学生心理问题是导致突发事件发生的主要原因,建立完善的突发事件处理管理机制和科学的预防手段是留学生教育健康发展的重要保证,是维系高校稳定、社会和谐的重要因素。     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets

This paper analyzes how U.S. monetary policy affects the pricing of dollar‐denominated sovereign debt. We document that yields on dollar‐denominated sovereign bonds are highly responsive to U.S. monetary policy surprises—during both the conventional and unconventional policy regimes—and that the passthrough of unconventional policy to foreign bond yields is, on balance, comparable to that of conventional policy. In addition, a conventional U.S. monetary easing (tightening) leads to a significant narrowing (widening) of credit spreads on sovereign bonds issued by countries with a speculative‐grade credit rating but has no effect on the corresponding weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for a basket of currencies from the same set of risky countries; this indicates that an unanticipated tightening of U.S. monetary policy widens credit spreads on risky sovereign debt directly through the financial channel, as opposed to indirectly through the exchange rate channel. During the unconventional policy regime, yields on both investment‐ and speculative‐grade sovereign bonds move one‐to‐one with policy‐induced fluctuations in yields on comparable U.S. Treasuries. We also examine whether the response of sovereign credit spreads to US monetary policy differs between policy easings and tightenings and find no evidence of such asymmetry.     

Drastic Times Call for Drastic Measures: The ECB LTROs and Credit in The Eurozone Before and After December 2011

We study the impact of the European Central Bank Long-term refinancing operations (ECB LTROs) on credit to the non-financial sector, using panel data on twelve countries of the Euro area between December 2008 and July 2014. The tests show that LTROs tested as a dummy have a favorable impact. However, till December 2011, the impact of the amount of LTROs was insignificant or negative. This suggests that full allotment liquidity measures, disclosing interbank markets liquidity needs, could generate adverse collateral effect disturbing the unconventional monetary policies transmission channels, in particular the signaling channel. Moreover, the effectiveness of the signaling channel of liquidity measures would rely on their use as the sole monetary policy tool carrying all the information about the policy stance, while the ECB, whose mandate usually focuses price stability, has twice raised twice its policy rate in 2011.     

探讨重大突发事件中的大学生价值观教育模式

如何把握重大突发事件教育契机,引导大学生构筑社会主义核心价值体系是高校思想政治教育面临的崭新课题。本文结合学生工作实际,以社会主义核心价值体系内化为大学生思想品质为目标,在尊重大学生认知规律基础上,挖掘重大突发事件的教育资源,营造大学生提升价值观的外部环境,唤醒大学生价值观需求的内在动力;疏导情绪的同时引导大学生将情绪转化为践行价值观的行动;在情感回归理性的过程中引导大学生升华价值观;在反复实践的过程中引导大学生固化为内在品质,形成应对重大突发事件的价值观教育机制。     

危机后发达国家的非传统货币政策研究

次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。