颜之推的家庭教育及启示

"爱孩子,这是连母鸡都会的。"但是什么样的爱才是真正的爱,并不是每个父母都有清醒的认识,从颜之推的家庭教育经验中我们或许会得到某些启示。     

一种基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯索赔校正模型

Btihlmann模型是贝叶斯方法在经验费率厘定中最为著名的应用，然而该模型在结构参数先验信息不足的情况下，并不能得出参数的无偏后验估计。本文针对传统方法的不足，运用基于MCMC模拟的贝叶斯方法对历史数据进行校正，通过Gibbs抽样构造出一种多层Poisson模型稳态分布的马尔可夫链，动态模拟出索赔频率的后验分布以及缺失参数值的后验估计，改进了传统的索赔校正模型，提高了计算的精度。利用WinBUGS软件包进行建模分析，证明了该模型的直观性与有效性。     

发展品质旅游的新思考

本文提出了在旅游业中发展品质旅游的新思想。文中给品质旅游赋予的内涵是：品质旅游是能带给游客真正体验的旅游，品质旅游应该是高质量的旅游而不一定是高档次的旅游。作者做了下面的研究：首先，从旅游者的角度分析了寻求品质旅游的游客消费特征；然后，从旅游企业的角度探讨了品质旅游对旅游产品开发的要求；最后得出结论——发展品质旅游是旅游业发展的重要方向。     

俄罗斯政府间财政关系的改革及对我国的启示

近年来俄罗斯对政府间财政关系进行了一系列改革和调整，成功地维护了联邦的统一，促进了经济的复苏和发展。正确处理政府间财政关系也是我国面临的重大课题之一，与我国有相似历史背景、同处于经济转轨时期的俄罗斯在这方面的经验与教训，对我们有更直接的借鉴意义和参考价值。本通过对俄罗斯财政关系现存问题的研究，提出进一步改革与完善的途径和方法，以资我们学习与借鉴。     

Forecasting technology costs via the experience curve — Myth or magic?

To further understand the effectiveness of experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data is carried out. Three hypotheses are tested using available datasets that together shed light on the historical ability of experience curves to forecast technology costs. The results indicate that the Single Factor Experience Curve is a useful forecasting model when errors are viewed in their log format. Practitioners should note that due to the convexity of the log curve a mean overestimation of potential cost reductions can arise as values are converted into monetary units. Time is also tested as an explanatory variable, however forecasts made with endogenous learning based on cumulative capacity as used in traditional experience curves are shown to be vastly superior. Furthermore the effectiveness of increasing weights for more recent data is tested using Weighted Least Squares with exponentially increasing weights. This results in forecasts that are less biased, though have increased spread when compared to Ordinary Least Squares.     

论体验经济时代教育旅游产品的开发

体验经济时代的来临要求我们用全新的视角来看待旅游业。笔者在分析了体验经济和旅游业关系的基础上,提出了教育旅游的体验化趋势,并着重探讨了教育旅游产品的开发。     

略论流通领域全面开放与政府贸易规制创新的路径激励

在流通全面开放的今天，市场流通秩序的校正单靠市场机制这只看不见的手，是远远不够的。市场机制不是万能的，必须依靠政府对贸易进行有效的规制，通过政府对公共利益调控的力量来规制市场机制的不足：同时建立符合国际惯例的商品分销行业管理规制模式，学会按国际惯例办事，提倡诚实守信，健全国内贸易保护与市场准入的政策与法规规制，才有可能从源头上治理市场秩序失灵。     

服装结构设计新方法探议

本文从服装结构构成方法特点出发,提出以建立服装结构设计经验数据库为桥梁将不同服装结构构成方法有机连接起来的服装结构设计新方法,以突破我国服装教育“瓶颈”,创建民族服装品牌。     

Experience Rating versus Employment Protection Laws in a Model where Firms Monitor Workers*

While layoff costs in the U.S. are mostly due to experience‐rated unemployment insurance, layoff costs in European labour markets are primarily a consequence of employment protection laws. In this paper we compare the effects of experience rating and employment protection laws on employment and welfare in a model where unemployment arises due to efficiency wage setting and where labour turnover is inefficiently high. We show that a revenue‐neutral introduction of experience rating reduces labour turnover and increases employment and welfare. The introduction of employment protection laws may also reduce labour turnover but employment declines.     

Momentary well-being matters: Daily fluctuations in hotel employees’ turnover intention

Drawing on affective events theory and the unfolding model of voluntary turnover, the dynamic nature of emotional dissonance, job autonomy, subjective well-being (SWB), and turnover intention are examined in a daily diary study. The study's design employs an experience sampling method. Participants are full-time employees in guest-facing positions in full-service or luxury hotels in the United States. Sixty-five participants completed a one-time baseline survey and a daily diary study twice per day for at least five working days, resulting in a total of 416 day-level observations. Within-person variance in turnover intention is predicted by day-level within-person SWB and emotional dissonance. This study shows that SWB and turnover intention are not stable phenomena among frontline hotel employees. Moreover, the study emphasizes the important moderating role of daily job autonomy and the moderating effects of person-level trait resilience. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are also discussed.