Output dynamics,flow equilibria and structural change—A prolegomenon to evolutionary macroeconomics

In an evolutionary approach to macroeconomics, the market disequilibrium dynamics resulting from structural change need to be properly represented at the aggregate level. As suggested by the late F.A. Hayek, a suitable equilibrium concept required to this end as a frame of reference, is that of a flow equilibrium. The paper explores the corresponding flow dynamics that draw attention to variables not usually considered in macroeconomic theorizing. Using statistical estimates for these new variables for the West German manufacturing sector during the German unification process allows some important new insights on the relationships between structural change and macroeconomic performance.

Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo and empirical evidence concerning out-of-sample tests of Granger causality. The environment is one in which the relative predictive ability of two nested parametric regression models is of interest. Results are provided for three statistics: a regression-based statistic suggested by Granger and Newbold [1977. Forecasting Economic Time Series. Academic Press Inc., London], a t-type statistic comparable to those suggested by Diebold and Mariano [1995, Comparing Predictive Accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 253–263] and West [1996. Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability, Econometrica, 64, 1067–1084], and an F-type statistic akin to Theil's U. Since the asymptotic distributions under the null are nonstandard, tables of asymptotically valid critical values are provided. Monte Carlo evidence supports the theoretical results. An empirical example evaluates the predictive content of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for growth in Industrial Production and core PCE-based inflation.     

上市公司现金股利政策的现状及影响因素分析

本文从保护投资者角度出发,分析了上市公司现金股利分配的现状和影响因素。研究发现,我国上市公司在利用证券市场融资的同时,为追求自身利益而不顾对广大投资者的回报,现金股利分配极不规范,存在现金股利支付率低以及超能力派现等不规范等问题。并从企业外部因素、企业内部因素以及股东意愿方面分析我国上市公司现金股利分配不规范的可能原因。     

上市公司现金股利政策影响因素研究——来自钢铁行业的经验数据分析

本文以2002年～2004年派发现金股利的钢铁上市公司数据为对象,对其现金股利政策的影响因素进行了实证研究,结果表明:公司的现金股利支付率与每股收益以及每股经营现金流量净额呈正相关关系,与资产总额没有显著相关关系,与公司净资产收益率和公司的利润增长率呈负相关关系。     

京津冀经济圈生产要素流动的实证分析

分析了京津冀经济圈中劳动力要素、资金要素、技术要素的流动现状和特征,并提出了优化生产要素流动的几点建议。     

上市公司现金股利分配情况分析

本文以2001年证监会发布的《上市公司新股发行管理办法》为起点,对我国A股上市公司2001￣2005年度现金股利分配情况从数量和质量两个方面进行了分析。结果表明,2002年以后由于政策性和公司自身原因,派现上市公司所占比率出现小幅回落;A股上市公司在收益质量不高的情况下,明显存在超能力派现的现象。而股票获利率高于无风险利率水平的公司比率上升,是理性表现。     

Productivity and environmental regulation: the effect of the nitrates directive in the French pig sector

This paper measures the ensuing changes in productivity in the French pig sector following the introduction of the European regulation addressing water pollution by nitrates from agriculture. Productivity is measured using the Malmquist–Luenberger index. The sources of changes in productivity observed are examined by breaking down this index into its technical progress and efficiency components. The results show that in the early stages, increases in productivity were stimulated by increased efficiency, before being driven by technical progress. The estimations regarding the sources of efficiency gains for the farms in the sample (technical efficiency, efficiency of scale and environmental efficiency) are then used to estimate the indirect costs and benefits (or negative costs) linked to the introduction of the environmental regulation controlling the disposal of organic manure and the management of nitrogen surplus from pig farms. The existence of a “win-win” effect as regards the Porter hypothesis relation between efficiency and environmental regulation is highlighted for the French pig sector.      

上市公司财务能力与持续现金股利政策的实证分析——基于沪深A股数据

本文以1999年￣2004年连续派发现金股利的沪深A股上市公司为样本,分析了上市公司盈利能力、长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对持续现金股利政策的影响程度。研究结果表明:在持续现金股利政策下,上市公司实现的盈利约有40%作为现金股利派发给了股东;而上市公司长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对其持续现金股利政策无显著影响。     

Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows?

This study investigates the persistence of cash flow components (core and non-core cash flows) using a cash flow prediction model. By extending the Barth, Cram, and Nelson (Account Rev 76(January):27–58, 2001) model, we examine the role of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows beyond that of accrual components. We propose a cash flow prediction model that decomposes cash flows from operations into core and non-core cash flow components that parallel the presentation and format of operating income from the income statement. Consistent with the AICPA and financial analysts’ recommendations, and as predicted, we find that core and non-core cash flows defined in our paper are differentially persistent in predicting future cash flows; and these cash flow components enhance the in-sample predictive ability of cash flow prediction models. We also analyze the association of in-sample prediction errors with earnings, cash flow and accruals variability. We find that disaggregating cash flows improve in-sample prediction, especially for large firms with high cash flows and earnings variability.

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。