商业银行核心竞争力的三维评价研究

研究商业银行的核心竞争力评价问题对繁荣我国的金融市场具有重要意义。首先构建了评价商业银行核心竞争力的指标体系，采用系统的思想提出了一种分析核心竞争力的三维评价模型，并给出了综合评价核心竞争力的最优点法。在此基础上深入讨论了该模型的投影操作。     

The Recruiting Problems in Chinese Enterprises

The thesis states the problems and tendency of current recruiting and the situation, in which there is no rule and no circumference. It will help us to act successfully during the process of hiring and the development of the enterprise.     

三要素法在求任意信号作用下的系统响应中的应用

<正> 综合商社发源于日本、昌盛于日本,并为日本经济的繁荣 作出了巨大贡献,同时,也成长为企业巨人。从业务额来看,它已经远远地把其他任何类型的企业甩开,博得了美国、韩国 等许多国家的青睐并纷纷效仿。 但事实却表明,这种巨人的体质却是非常虚弱的,无论是 用利润总额还是利润率来衡量,都是“低能儿”。有人已预言 了它们的消亡。它们究竟还能存活多久取决于其内部机制的 变革。它发展的成功经验值得借鉴,以助于组建我国的综合 商社,而对它走入的误区,我国也应引以为戒。     

基于收入分布的收入差距扩大成因的分解

本文采用核平滑化的半参方法估计了1987年、1996年、2004年我国城市居民收入分布曲线,并且基于收入分布又进一步分解了导致城市居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。收入差距扩大的成因可以分为两类:一是劳动者的劳动力特点的普遍变化,如劳动者教育水平的提高,行业、职业分布的变化;二是对劳动力特点回报率的变化,如教育回报率的提高,各行业、职业回报率差异的扩大等。本文发现后者是导致收入差距扩大的主要原因。     

林业现代化评价方法探讨

论述了林业现代化评价指标数据的来源与取得方法、指标设计的基本思路，并且建立了林业现代化的评价模型。认为林业现代化评价指标的标准值应该以中等发达国家相应指标的实际值平均数为主，以专家咨询法（Delphi）定为辅；林业现代化评价指标的权重必须采用层次分析法（AHP）和专家咨询法确定。此外，还详细阐述了林业现代化评价指标权重的计算过程、计算公式和国内外常见的5种现代化评价标准。     

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) who were required to solve a quantitative judgment task that did not involve distributed knowledge. This task consisted of ten factual questions, which required percentage estimates. While we did not find statistically significant differences in accuracy between the four methods overall, the results differed somewhat at the individual question level. Delphi was as accurate as FTF for eight questions and outperformed FTF for two questions. By comparison, prediction markets did not outperform FTF for any of the questions and were inferior for three questions. The relative performances of nominal groups and FTF were mixed and the differences were small. We also compared the results from the three structured approaches to prior individual estimates and staticized groups. The three structured approaches were more accurate than participants’ prior individual estimates. Delphi was also more accurate than staticized groups. Nominal groups and prediction markets provided little additional value relative to a simple average of the forecasts. In addition, we examined participants’ perceptions of the group and the group process. The participants rated personal communications more favorably than computer-mediated interactions. The group interactions in FTF and nominal groups were perceived as being highly cooperative and effective. Prediction markets were rated least favourably: prediction market participants were least satisfied with the group process and perceived their method as the most difficult.     

中国经济增长的周期性波动研究及其产业结构特征(1992～2010年)

本文使用基于贝叶斯方法的结构突变模型,研究了1992～2010年我国经济增长的周期性波动特征。研究发现,该阶段我国经济增长分别经历了一次六阶段的U形中长周期和一次三阶段的V形短周期,国际经济环境的变化对我国经济的影响日益显著,同时经济增长的波动存在季度性。通过对三次产业GDP增长率的分析,我们还发现三者之间存在着较大偏离,第二产业对我国经济增长的周期性波动起着决定性的影响,同时第二、第三产业之间的关联性在不断增强。     

GDDS型高性能电工电子系统实验装置快速维护方法

对快速、有效、全方位维护GDDS型高性能电工电子系统实验装置的方法进行了系统的总结，这种方法的检修思路对高校的电工实验装置维护具有实际指导意义。     

信息系统规划理论及其实现途径研究

信息系统规划是企业信息化建设的一个重要环节,是信息技术支持企业实现其战略目标的关键因素。基于信息系统发展阶段,基于BP-ISP集成关系和基于战略对应SAM模型的三条思路,提供了三种典型的信息系统规划方法的实现途径。     

山东经济可持续发展能力的实证分析

本文从经济发展、社会发展、资源、环境、科技等6个方面共33项指标,运用因子分析方法对山东省内17个地市的可持续发展状况进行了以定量分析为主的实证分析研究。在此基础上得出了17个地市的可持续发展水平的综合排名,最后分区域提出改善可持续发展能力的相关建议,希望对山东省的可持续发展具有实际的指导意义。