Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.     

Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis

Based on the wavelet analysis approach, this paper firstly examines the dynamic relationship between global economic activity (proxied by the Kilian economic index) and crude oil prices in both time- and frequency-domains. Our empirical results demonstrate significant correlation between crude oil prices and global economic activity at high frequencies (in the short run) during the entire sample period; however, the co-movement between the two at low frequencies (in the long run) is weaker and exists only during certain proportions of the sample period. We also document evidence that global economic activity and oil price are positively correlated, with dynamic lead-lag relationships across time. Our findings are robust to alternative choices of oil price indexes and controlling for other confounding factors such as geopolitical risk, armed conflicts, economic policy uncertainty and equity market uncertainty. The current study provides valuable implications for oil market investors based on the information of global economic situation and its dynamic relationships with oil prices.     

灰色关联分析法在重大错报风险评估中应用研究

重大错报风险的形成原因错综复杂,如何评价风险可能存在的业务领域、风险相对高低以及被审单位整体重大错报风险大小是实施现代风险导向审计的三大核心和难点。首先构建重大错报风险综合评价指标体系,进而引入灰色关联分析评估模型,以更加客观准确地确定各错报风险因素的权重及排序,最终得出各业务领域评估值及综合评估值大小,这样可以为会计师事务所进行单项及不同审计业务之间的资源配置提供依据。     

工会主席专职化对工会维权活动的影响效应——来自雇主—雇员匹配调查的证据

本文利用“中国雇主—雇员匹配数据追踪调查（2012）”,采用多变量 Probit 模型考察工会主席专职化对工会维权活动的影响效应。结果发现：工会主席专职化强化了工会在工伤补偿、改善工作环境及改善住宿和伙食等员工福利方面的作用,而在提高员工工资、发加班费及减少解雇等核心维权活动方面的作用并不显著;工会主席专职化对工会维权作用在不同性质的企业有显著差异,在公有制企业主要表现为改善工作环境,而非公有制企业工会主席的专职化对工会维权的推动作用更大,特别是在发放加班费、工伤补偿等方面。     

Influence factors for operational control and compensation in professional service firms

Professional service firms have distinct operational challenges due to the type of work that is transacted by the employees of these firms, and due to the nature of the employees themselves. In this paper, we develop and present factors that influence professional service operations in firms and compensation structures for professional service providers. We establish professional service influence factors, which we posit will impact agency relationships in professional service firms. That is, we hypothesize that professional service influence factors (PSIFs) will moderate the effect of task programmability and outcome measurability in predicting the use of behavior- or outcome-based compensation schemes (control strategy). Logistic regression is used on data provided by 192 professional service providers in order to examine the impact of the agency variables and moderating factors on control strategies. The results indicate that company- and profession-based factors have moderating effects on task programmability when predicting control strategy. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

探讨交通运输机械针对性维修策略与应用

根据当前我国交通运输机械针对性维修的整体发展状况,分析了我国交通运输机械维修的发展方向,从而进一步探讨了现代交通运输机械维修的策略和具体技术应用所遇到的挑战及总体发展趋势,并针对具体维修策略,提出一些关于交通运输机械针对性维修方面的具体措施和发展思路。     

破解外向型经济生态瓶颈的法律思考——从我国资源环境逆差谈起

资源环境逆差是对贸易成效的一种环境评估指标。目前,我国对外贸易中环境成本外部化的问题比较严重。应从资源安全与防止污染转嫁两方面着手平抑资源环境逆差,一方面,通过完善资源有偿使用制度、资源储备制度,广泛推行国际领域的资源合作与开发,缓解我国目前资源紧缺的现状;另一方面,通过建构贸易政策的环境影响评价制度和征收污染税,防止国际贸易带来的污染转嫁,最终实现我国对外贸易的结构性转型。     

城市休闲与休闲城市

随着休闲概念的普及与发展,城市休闲与休闲城市建设成为城市发展的一个前沿课题.本文在研究城市休闲影响因素和城市休闲体系构建的基础上,对建设休闲城市进行了初步探索.     

Tourist Perception of Crowding and Management Approaches at Tourism Sites in Xi'an

Tourism crowding management is an important part of sustainable development at tourist attractions. This study seeks to recognize visitors' perceptions of crowding and then identify tourism crowding management approaches for tourism sites in Xi'an, western China. Three kinds of study, which were designed using quantitative and qualitative techniques, were undertaken in Xi'an. In the first two studies the actual numbers of visitors at component parts of five tourist attractions were recorded. Next, visitor responses to these kinds of levels of crowding were assessed. In the third study senior managers were interviewed and asked to explain their approaches to crowding management. Taken together, the information collected from the three studies helped build a model that plots the driving forces shaping tourism crowding at tourism sites.