盈余操控方式对创业板上市公司IPO后业绩的影响

通过对创业板上市公司从应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理两个视角比较不同盈余操控方式对IPO后企业业绩的影响。实证分析结果表明,创业板公司IPO前后同时实施应计项目操控和真实活动操控两种盈余操控行为。其中真实盈余管理是IPO后企业业绩下滑的深层次原因,且不同盈余操控方式对IPO后3年业绩影响具有时间差异。     

模糊层次分析法优化BP神经网络的交通冲突预测模型

本文通过全面剖析影响交通冲突的原因,以交通流量、道路几何设计和道路环境三方面的因素建立指标层次结构体系。提出基于模糊层次分析(FAHP)法优化BP神经网络(BPNN)的预测模型,应用于交通冲突预测。     

白音查干矿井涌水量预计

矿井涌水量计算是矿床水文地质勘查中一项重要而复杂的工作,也是矿床水文地质勘查中的根本任务之一。运用大井法和廊道法对首采区、首采工作面和开切眼涌水量进行了预计,认为大井法计算的涌水量成果较为可靠,矿井最大涌水量为296.80m3/h,为今后的矿井安全生产提供了理论依据。     

The effects of haze pollution on stock performances: evidence from China

Haze pollution has become the most important environmental issue in China in recent years. Using the data of PM_2.5 concentration and stocks of listed companies located in Beijing between 2010 and 2014, this article investigates the effects of haze pollution on stock performances. Empirical results indicate that haze pollution has significant negative effects on stock returns and significant positive effects on stock volatilities, through the channel of investors’ mood. Furthermore, the effects of haze pollution on stock returns emerge gradually and the effects of haze pollution on stock volatilities weaken gradually over time during a trading day.     

The nature of ethical entrepreneurship in tourism

This article examines ethical entrepreneurship in tourism by developing a Weberian Ideal-Type Construct for an ethical tourism entrepreneur, and thereby deeper understanding of ethical tourism entrepreneurship. This research contributes to the extremely scarce literature at the academic juncture of ethics, tourism and entrepreneurship, which is significant as tourism is characterised by entrepreneurial idiosyncrasies with ethical challenges. The study is methodologically rooted in Personal Construct Theory. The qualitative findings from 15 semi-structured interviews with entrepreneurs, who have been commended for their ethical business conduct, show that ethical entrepreneurship in tourism is based on intuitionism, care and relationships, future-orientation, humility and benevolence as key virtues. These findings challenge the more traditional views of entrepreneurial attributes, such as egoism, risk-taking and opportunism.     

Using partial identification methods to estimate the effect of violence against women on their children’s health outcomes

A growing literature in economics seeks to estimate the costs of violence against women by examining, for example, its impact on the health outcomes of their children. However, it is difficult to assign a causal interpretation to these nonexperimental studies due to the presence of unobservable characteristics affecting violence and health outcomes simultaneously. The lack of credible instrumental variables applicable in several countries further limits our knowledge. I address this gap by using new partial identification methods to estimate the relative size of the unobservables needed to eliminate the estimated effects in nonexperimental studies. I also expand the external validity of the analysis by using data from five standardized nationally representative household surveys in Latin America. Consistent with previous studies, cross-sectional estimates show large negative associations between violence against women and an array of child health outcomes. However, when accounting for omitted variable bias, at best, two-thirds of the estimates remain robust and they are concentrated on the outcomes with the largest cross-sectional estimated impacts.     

Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.     

包西高速铁路引入鄂尔多斯地区方案研究

包西高速铁路作为我国"八纵八横"高速铁路通道中重要的纵向通道之一,建成后呼包鄂城市群和关中平原城市群将实现有效连接。鄂尔多斯市为典型的"一城双核"城市,包西高速铁路的引入将对地区客运布局产生较大影响,根据鄂尔多斯地区城市及铁路现状、城市总体规划及交通规划,结合地区客运量及特点,提出地区内包西高速铁路引入方案及车站设置方案,确定合理的引入及客站布点,研究地区内高速铁路客站布局,结合地区客流特点,确定高速铁路车站分工;合理确定引入地区线、站位方案将有助于完善鄂尔多斯铁路枢纽的客运铁路布局,有助于完善鄂尔多斯地区高速铁路网络,提升呼包鄂城市群的辐射效应,促进城市建设和经济发展。     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.