国防支出与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国、日本、韩国的实证分析

文章使用Enders-Siklos不对称门槛共整合模型,检定中国、日本及韩国的经济增长与国防支出之间不对称的长期均衡关系,并以门槛误差修正模型(T-ECM)探讨三国的经济增长与国防支出之间领先-落后的因果关系,以及长期均衡关系调整的不对称性。经研究发现:第一,采用Enders-Siklos不对称门槛共整合检定,发现中国、韩国的经济增长与国防支出之间存在不对称的共整合关系,日本的经济增长与国防支出之间具有对称的共整合关系;第二,由Granger因果关系检定,发现韩国、中国的经济增长与其国防支出之间存在有不对称的长期性领先-落后关系,日本的经济增长与国防支出不存在长期性因果关系;第三,由Granger因果关系检定,发现中国的经济增长与国防支出之间存在短期的双向因果互动关系,而日本、韩国则是经济增长单向领先其国防支出。     

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

Euro-dollar real exchange rate misalignments： Is the euro overvalued？

This paper estimates both short term and long run relationship between the real bilateral EUR-USD exchange rate and its real determinants. In the long run, it finds that the non-stationary real exchange rate in levels is linearly co-integrated with real variables. Using an ordinary least squares method with error correction mechanism, it investigates real EUR-USD exchange rate misalignment in the short term. By analysing real variables and their influence on international trade and capital movements, potential economic policies capable of maintaining equilibrium in the balance of payments and avoiding currency overvaluation are considered.     

电力消费与中国经济增长——基于中国30省市面板数据的协整检验

利用2001~2006年我国除西藏以外的30个省市的数据,通过面板单位根及协整检验,考察了电力消费与我国经济增长之间的关系。结果表明,电力消费对我国经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但在不同区域以及不同年份,其促进作用存在一定的差异,其中,东部省市电力消费对经济增长的促进作用明显大于中、西部地区;这一期间,电力消费对我国经济增长的促进作用是逐年增强的。     

汇率升值对就业影响的中日比较

关于就业问题,以往的研究主要从就业总量与就业结构两个角度进行探讨,本文对就业结构的研究进行了拓展,在实证研究中引入汇率,运用协整和误差修正模型对日中两国实际汇率与第三产业产值比重和就业比重之间的关系进行了国别比较。实证结果表明,从长期看日本第三产业就业比重上升与实际汇率升值正相关,而中国的相应变量间不存在类似长期关系。比较分析得出结论:只有在汇率适度浮动,资源在部门间流动壁垒减少这两个条件满足时,汇率升值才会产生资源配置作用,推动劳动向非贸易部门转移,逐步优化就业结构。     

中国货币供应量与股票市场价格关系的实证分析

股票市场作为货币政策传导的渠道,一方面通过货币供应量影响股票市场价格,另一方面股票市场价格的变动反馈到投资、消费等领域,从而影响宏观经济以实现货币政策的目标。本文对我国货币供应量与股票市场价格关系进行了实证检验,分析检验结果后认为我国各层次的货币供应量与股票市场价格存在长期的协整关系,其中股票市场价格处于因方地位,货币供应量处于果方地位。本文的实证结论在一定程度上反映了目前我国股票市场的货币政策传导效率不高,还没有发挥其应有的作用,这与我国股票市场自身缺陷有很大关系。     

上海市外贸发展与经济增长关系实证研究

通过统计计量分析发现,上海对外贸易规模较大且增速较快,对外贸易与经济增长关系密切,二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外贸总额或者进口额每增长1%,则GDP将增长0.5%以上。但是,外贸总额、出口额、进口额增长并不是上海经济增长的格兰杰原因,恰好相反,经济增长是短期外贸总额、出口增长的格兰杰原因。     

西部农村剩余劳动力行业外转移实证分析——以重庆市为例

结合实际,运用传统建模和现代协整建模理论,以重庆市为例对西部农村剩余劳动力转移的特点和行业分布作了较为客观的数学和文字分析,提出了建议。     

THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERS

The short‐run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long‐run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J‐curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long‐run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J‐curve hypothesis.     

论我国货币供应量中介目标的有效性

以普勒基本分析理论为基础，对我国经济的基础冲击进行了两阶段实证分析，结果表明目前的冲击仍然主要来自于商品市场；分析了货币供应量与真实GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系，认为货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有理论上的合理性，但是合理性并不一定意味着效率性，进而通过Granger因果检验对货币供应量的低效性进行了证明。在实证分析的基础上对上述问题的产生原因进行了分析。