Optimal foreign debt for Egypt: A stochastic control approach

This study assesses the foreign debt policy in Egypt and contrasts it versus the optimal policy during the period 1985–2008. It also presents a forecast of the optimal debt during the period 2009–2014. The optimal debt policy was derived using an open economy model for Egypt. The uncertainties in the model stem from the uncertainties in the interest or debt service payments and the uncertainties in the rate of return on investments. The stochastic control approach was used to find the optimal debt policy. It was found that Egypt could borrow externally as long as the trend in the rate of return on investments exceeds the trend in the real interest rate or the trend in the rate of the debt service payments. The analysis finds that Egypt's foreign debt was higher than the optimal level before 1997. After 1997, foreign debt seems to converge to the optimal level. However, Egypt's foreign debt is still below its optimal level which results in an opportunity cost for the economy to grow, otherwise, GDP could have recorded a favorable increase.     

A decision analytic approach for technology portfolio prioritization: aviation safety applications

A decision analytic approach for evaluating new aviation safety products and technologies is developed and demonstrated to consolidate five existing program assessment metrics to develop a unified metric that simultaneously considers the relative importance and contribution of each. This allows for a meaningful and objective evaluation and comparison of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) advanced aeronautical products and technologies. The resulting decision model is referred to as the Composite Program Assessment Score (CPAS). The CPAS includes the five existing metrics; technical development risk, implementation risk, fatal accident rate reduction, safety benefits and cost, and safety risk reduction, which are each defined and quantified by different sources. The CPAS involves the scaling and combination of these individual metrics. In this paper, two alternative combinatorial modeling approaches to calculate the CPAS are presented. The weighted sum model and an additive value theory model are compared and contrasted. The resulting CPAS metrics allow an overall comparison of all 48 of the NASA AvSP products and technologies. Currently CPAS is based on preliminary weight measures from subject matter experts to reflect the relative importance of each metric. Actual case studies of both linear and non‐linear value functions are demonstrated.     

Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities,jump intensities,and correlations

We study the impact of financial contagion on the dynamic asset allocation problem of a CRRA investor facing an incomplete market with two risky assets. We apply a Markov chain regime-switching framework with state-dependent jump intensities, diffusion volatilities and diffusion correlations. The key model feature that a switch to the bad contagion regime is triggered by a loss in one of the risky assets allows for the implementation of a hedging demand against contagion risk. Moreover, a state-dependent diffusion correlation combined with heterogeneity in jump intensities and volatilities can, e.g., generate a flight to quality effect upon a systemic jump.     

浅析保险公司风险管理与控制

本文首先阐述了保险公司风险管理的内容,其次,分析了我国保险公司风险管理现状。同时,从细化责任,全员参与;设立保险公司全面风险管理机构;提高客户信用评级管理水平;利用SAS助力保险公司加强风险管理等方面就如何有效加强保险公司风险管理与控制进行了深入的探讨,具有一定的参考价值。     

Institutional dimensions underlying public trust in information on technological risk

This paper examines the determinants of trust in public information on technological risk in a petrochemical complex located in Tarragona (Spain). Data from focus groups (eight) and a questionnaire survey (N = 400) are drawn together to analyse how two local communities exposed to major chemical hazards perceive information on risk and its sources. Results show how trust relies on two main factors, namely expertise and trustworthiness, that are significantly influenced by a third one, antagonism. Results also illustrate the relevance of the institutional context when understanding how communities give meaning to the available information on risk.     

中小企业金融服务供给及风险控制研究

本文在对上海市和长三角地区中小企业融资状况调查数据分析的基础上,讨论了在目前宏观经济环境下中小企业的融资约束问题.文章对在上海市建立中小企业融资服务平台以及直接补贴金融机构的支持政策作了探讨,并且结合上海国际金融中心的建设提出了一些政策性建议.     

Surviving progress: managing the collective risks of civilization

As optimism is becoming ever more apparent, progress carries with it both promise and pitfalls. Though it is quite natural for humans to take an optimistic view of life, this optimism must at the same time be tempered with realism. We cannot therefore let a focus on average, or expected, outcomes cause us to ignore possible high-stakes (existential) risks associated with what is becoming an increasingly complex world. In this paper, we argue that a more complete view is necessary for a proper assessment of not only the technical aspects of high-stakes risk management, but also the social, political, and economic framework within which it is carried out. Unfortunately, attention to such crucial details is not often the case.     

美国商业银行风险管理经验及其启示

由于受金融危机的影响,国内银行正面临着越来越大的来自风险、管理和利润的压力.完善的风险管理体系是保证商业银行持续发展和稳定的关键.因此,基于美国商业银行风险管理的现状,通过借鉴美国商业银行在风险管理方面的经验和教训,对中国商业银行风险管理提出了建议.     

维护保险产业安全 促进经济金融发展

本文认为,保险业是现代经济的重要产业,是现代金融业的重要支柱,是社会保障体系的重要组成部分,具有经济补偿、资金融通和社会风险管理等重要功能,它是社会的"稳定器",是经济发展的"助推器",是维护国家金融安全和经济安全的重要力量.目前从总体上来说,我国保险业安全状况良好.文章提出,保险产业安全是一个动态变化的过程,因此,要进一步完善防范、化解保险风险和保护被保险人利益的机制和制度.进一步完善促进可持续发展的政策措施,进一步改进保险监管,切实建立维护保险产业安全的长效机制.     

A note on estimating the divisional cost of capital for diversified companies: an empirical evaluation of heuristic-based approaches

This note provides an empirical analysis of the potential for heuristic-based approaches to derive a divisional cost of equity from a firm's total cost of capital. Since an empirical relationship between fundamental information and systematic risk has previously been shown in other studies, idiosyncratic information on risk and performance ought to serve as a good proxy to calculate divisional adjustments. Two practically used, heuristic-based approaches are tested and a significant relationship is found between one of the measures and CAPM beta. This method may offer a plausible and comparatively uncomplicated method for adjusting a firm's total cost of capital for divisional use.