Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries*

We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5–10 yrs), expected TFR‐errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium‐term and long‐term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so‐called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR‐levels also apply for the future.     

Food Stamp Benefits and Child Poverty

In 2000, 8.8 million children lived in households participating in the Food Stamp Program, making this assistance program a crucial component of the social safety net. Despite its importance, little research has examined food stamps' effect on children's overall well-being. Using the Current Population Survey from 1989 to 2001, we consider the impact of food stamps on three measures of poverty—the headcount, the poverty gap, and the squared poverty gap. We find that in comparison to the headcount measure, food stamp benefits lead to large reductions in the poverty gap and squared poverty gap measures.     

银川市暂住流动人口的调查与研究

通过调查 ,对宁夏回族自治区暂住流动人口最为集中、流动量也最大的首府银川市所辖三个城市区的流动人口做了分析 ,从理论和实践上提出了对宁夏城市流动人口的相关对策     

人口老龄化对社会经济的影响——基于江苏省第五次人口普查数据的分析

根据2000年江苏省第五次人口普查资料和预测数据,分析了江苏省人口老龄化的现状与发展趋势,结合经济因素分析研究了人口老龄化对国民收入及代际之间分配、对劳动力资源供给、对消费市场等社会经济方面的影响.     

A minimax property of Lahiri-Midzuno-Sen’s sampling scheme

We consider parameter spaces which are generalizations of spaces discussed so far in connection with minimax strategies. We give a lower bound for the minimax value and derive, under weak assumptions, minimax strategies consisting of the expansion estimator and an appropriate design. This design is of the Lahiri-Midzuno-Sen type for an important subclass of parameter spaces.     

The Systematic Analysis on the Relationship between Population and Agricultural Sustainable Development in Hebei

Regional agricultural sustainable development is the basement and important component of sustainable development system. In view of the relationship between population and regional agricultural sustainable development, this paper proposes some countermeasures on coordination development between population and sustainable agriculture in Hebei Province.     

把北京建成“人水共存共荣”的城市——关于人与水资源关系的探讨

协调首都人口与水资源关系是“绿色奥运”紧迫而重要的命题。针对当前北京市水资源严重短缺,人口规模超过水资源承载力的现实,除综合点评“开源节流”多项对策外,提出了“人水共存共荣”的新思路。重整水环境,古为今用,延伸古水系价值与风貌,用以构建现代化生态型绿色都城。量水而行,严控人口规模,适度吸纳流动人口。树立科学观,力争人与水和谐才能可持续发展。坚持首都政治和文化中心地位,舍弃首都经济“中心论”。利用经济杠杆,市场机制,以供定需,调整现有产业结构,实施水资源优化配置。依《水法》用水治水、管水,以使北京成为人水共存共荣的大都市。     

中国人口结构转变下的保险发展

保险发展和人口发展息息相关,人口结构状况对保险发展有重要影响。在我国人口再生产转变过程中,人口结构发生了较大变化,这种变化必将影响到我国保险业的发展。如何应对人口结构变化的现状与趋势,将是保险发展中不能回避的问题。但是,不同的人口结构,对保险发展的影响不同。文章分析了我国的对保险发展影响明显的相关具体人口结构的变化和趋势,指出我国保险发展必须根据这些变化和趋势,未雨绸缪,积极采取应对措施,并提出了相关的思路。     

新疆“脆弱生态环境-人口”系统安全预警机制初探

浅析人口过多与过少阶段新疆"脆弱生态环境-人口"系统安全问题,将人口承载力预警模型与最少人口规模警戒线相结合构建预警机制。具体分两步:首先,在人口增长阶段应用综合评价、生态足迹等方法,建立人口承载力预警模型,目的在于对即将出现或已经出现的超载警情给予预报与评价;其次,根据人口再生产规律,考虑未来人口可能不断减少、影响系统协调发展的问题,此时需参考人口衰减、经济停滞国家的情况,对最少人口规模警戒线进行探索,做到提前预警。最后,对预警机制的实际应用进行了简单的步骤探讨。     

基于模糊层次分析法的西部人口素质问题分析

基于模糊层次分析法对中国西部人口素质问题进行综合评价,建立了西部人口素质问题量化模型,为合理解决西部人口素质问题提供决策依据。