汇率决定理论的发展与前沿述评

汇率决定问题是国际金融领域的一个重要命题,其间得到不断地丰富和发展。本文对汇率决定理论的发展脉络、内容、前沿作系统性地概述,并作出精要地评判。文章指出汇率行为的复杂性将是汇率决定理论研究的一个方向,非线性分析工具将成为汇率行为研究的主要手段。     

China''''s Economic Prospects and Sino-US Economic Relations

I. Introduction The rapid rise of the economic weight of China in the world economy has increasingly caught the attention of many analysts as well as policy-makers, eliciting various opinions on the global implications. Although China’s economic performance in the past 2 decades46 Pingfan Hong / 45 – 55, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2006 or so is indeed miraculous, the rest of the world should become less surprised or bewildered if they see China’s recent performance from a long-run historical perspe…     

我国上市公司资本结构的评价模型

加入世贸组织 ,将对我国国有商业银行的银行业务、优质客户、人力资源和资产质量造成严重的冲击 ,为此 ,国有商业银行必须采取五个方面的对策 :增强银行实力、开展业务创新、提高服务质量、完善人力资源管理制度和加强资产质量管理。     

Changes in the Finnish Wage Structure: Will Demand and Supply Do?

This study addresses changes in the wage structure in Finland between 1977 and 1995, and provides a simple explanation based on the demand for and supply of skills. The single index model of Card and Lemieux (1996) is augmented by incorporating changes in the supply of skills. The augmented model adequately accounts for the changes in relative wages between groups of different education and experience, but does not capture the changes in the within-group distribution.
JEL classification : J 31     

基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

Generalized piecewise linear histograms

We extend the concept of piecewise linear histogram introduced recently by Beirlant, Berlinet and Györfi. The disadvantage of that histogram is that in many models it takes on negative values with probability close to 1. We show that for a wide set of models, the extended class of estimates contains a bona fide density with probability tending to 1 as the sample size n increases to infinity. The mean integrated absolute error in the extended class of estimators decreases with the same rate n^–2/5 as in the original narrower class.     

Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

对《形状和位置公差》新标准的理解和应用

通过对《形状和位置公差》新、旧国际的对比，综述了新、旧标准间的不同之处、便于迅速了解和应用新标准。