The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output

The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labour as an important ingredient. This article shows how the recent huge migrants’ inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labour market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modelled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure.     

自然资源资产全民所有权的实现逻辑及机制完善

研究目的：围绕新时代人民日益增长的美好生活需要，揭示自然资源资产全民所有权的实现逻辑，提出完善全民 所有权实现机制的建议。研究方法：归纳法，演绎法。研究结果：自然资源资产生态属性决定生态产品是自然资源资 产所有权实现的重要内容；全民所有权行使主体直接行使所有权意义上的资源资产管理权利，实现自然资源资产保值 增值；通过自然资源保护和市场交易实现生态产品供给及经济收益最大化，通过公益支出实现公共服务均等化，从而满 足人民日益增长的美好生活需要，构成自然资源资产全民所有权实现的基本逻辑。研究结论：自然资源资产全民所有 权实现，需在改善自然资源资产本底基础上，通过权利赋予、市场流转、收益分配和配套制度建设，为全体公众谋利益。     

阿联酋粮食战略储备项目的先进性和创新性

阿联酋粮食战略储备项目，筒仓仓容276760 t，粮食品种为小麦和稻谷，项目建设点储粮环境恶劣，图纸审查严格，整个项目设计均采用最先进的技术，并严格遵循欧美规范和标准进行设计。     

Which accessible travel products are people with disabilities willing to pay more? A choice experiment

Despite the rapidly increasing number of tourists with disabilities, which is known to have a strong nexus with senior travel market, tourism industry has paid little attention to the distinctive preferences of these tourists for accessible travel products. Using a sample of Koreans with mobility disabilities, this study aims to better understand how they make decisions to choose optimal accessible travel products. The results of the choice experiment indicate that respondents place the heaviest weight on the accessibility of accommodation facilities for their maximization of travel satisfaction. The results also suggest that tourists with disabilities show higher willingness-to-pay values on particular tour buses equipped with more accessibility devices. Based on study findings, this study provides several management implications that help tourism professionals develop appropriate accessible travel products for their clientele with disabilities.     

基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例

文章采用参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)技术,模拟景区未来典型自然灾害风险情景,建立典型致灾因子强度与灾害风险情景对应关系;对旅游资源、旅游设施进行分类,分析游客居民景区内时空分布特征,建立致灾因子强度与景区承载体的脆弱性对应关系;最后通过拟合风险曲线,建立景区综合灾损模型并预测出多情景年均损失。综合景区利益相关方可接受风险,基于灾损和防灾成本进行风险决策。案例研究以九寨沟树正景群为例,模拟九寨沟在分别遭遇20、50、100、200、500、1000年一遇6种暴雨情景下引发泥石流的流速、流量和冲击力,建立6种情景泥石流与树正景群脆弱性关系;预测6种情景潜在损失和人员伤亡;结合可接受风险,提出九寨沟树正寨未来自然灾害防灾降险措施。     

A field experiment investigating age discrimination in four European labour markets

In a field experiment investigating age discrimination, pairs of men, aged 27 and 47, inquired about employment as waiters in towns across England, France, Germany and Spain. Statistically significant discrimination against the older waiter was found in all four countries, but it was considerably higher in France and Spain than in England and Germany.     

Erratic strategic decisions: when and why managers are inconsistent in strategic decision making

While decision makers in organizations frequently make good decisions rooted in stable and consistent preferences, such consistency in outcomes is not always the case. In this study, we adopt a psychological perspective of judgment to investigate managers' erratic strategic decisions, which we define as a manager's inconsistent judgments that can shape the direction of the firm. In a study of 2,048 decisions made by 64 CEOs of technology firms, we examine how both metacognitive experience and perceptions of the external environment (hostility and dynamism) could affect the extent to which managers make erratic strategic decisions. The results indicate that managers with greater metacognitive experience make less erratic strategic decisions. The results also indicate that in hostile environments managers make more erratic strategic decisions. But contrary to our expectations, in dynamic environments managers make less erratic strategic decisions. Similarly, hostility and dynamism interact in their effect on erratic strategic decisions in that the positive relationship between environmental hostility and erratic strategic decisions will be less positive for managers experiencing high environmental dynamism than those experiencing low environmental dynamism. These results have important implications for strategic decision‐making research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vision (im)possible? The effects of in-store signage on customers’ visual attention

We used two eye-tracking field experiments to investigate the extent to which in-store signage is used during navigation and decision making, and how the viewing of signage influences customers’ visual attention and choice behavior. One hundred and seventy-five customers at a grocery store were exposed to signage stimuli while carrying out predefined shopping tasks. Experiment 1 shows that attention toward signage is affected by customers’ levels of store familiarity and in-store search stage (navigation vs. decision making). Experiment 2 demonstrates that signage has a considerable impact on the direction and magnitude of customers’ visual attention during decision making.     

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

We examine natural disasters and long‐run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find no direct effect of long‐run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin‐country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.     

Sustaining cooperation in social dilemmas: Comparison of centralized punishment institutions

This study investigates two centralized punishment institutions for a linear public goods game. These institutions require a certain contribution level and sanction under-contributing players. The two differ in who, among those who do not meet this requirement, receive sanctions. In one institution, all violators are sanctioned, and in the other, only the worst violator(s) is sanctioned. Theoretically, the public goods game of the latter institution yields contributions equal to or greater than that of the former institution with the same requirement and sanction level. The results of an experiment support this theoretical prediction. However, there is a discrepancy between the theory and laboratory observations in that the institution with the theoretically optimal requirement did not yield the highest profit.