Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

中韩自贸协定关税减让特征及其产业影响

本文根据中韩自贸协定的关税承诺表,将中韩双方贸易产业分成敏感产业、半敏感产业和非敏感产业,并从降税优惠幅度、降税方式及比例、过渡期的设置等3方面对这3类产业的降税特点进行分类比较,发现中方对其敏感产业的降税力度要比韩方稍大,对非敏感产业的降税力度稍小于韩方,而对半敏感产业,中韩双方旗鼓相当。结合2012~2016年中韩各产业进出口贸易额,分析中韩自贸协定对中韩产业的进出口影响,发现在敏感和半敏感产业上,中国对双方降税优惠安排的利用更加充分,中国的降税安排在总体上也比韩国更能促进双方贸易自由化。但同时,中国的部分敏感产业也受到了中韩自贸协定的负面冲击,对此在产业结构升级、负面清单等方面提出应对之策。     

Financing Renewable Energy in Indonesia: A CGE Analysis of Feed-In Tariff Schemes

This paper examines the impact of promoting clean (renewable) energy production through feed-in tariff (FIT) schemes on Indonesia’s economy and on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For numerical analysis, we designed a hybrid computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly incorporates electricity generation technologies. The Indonesian FITs have been stipulated in Government Regulation No. 79/2014 on National Energy Policy. We assume that the government sets a 15% subsidy rate for renewable generation technologies. Two possible financing schemes are implemented: (i) the FIT is paid by electricity consumers through the endogenous electricity tax rate; and (ii) the FIT is financed by a carbon tax adjustment. The results show that the effects of both FIT scenarios on macroeconomic and CO2 emission accounts are negligible. These negligible effects are due to the low shares of renewables (geothermal and hydro) generation load in total electricity mix. Therefore, we argue that Indonesia’s current FIT regulation is insufficient to boost the national clean energy production and therefore is ineffective to reduce the national emissions.     

产学研联盟的隐性知识转移阻碍及互惠性协调研究

产学研联盟是推动区域经济发展的重要载体。产学研联盟的相对优势在于各主体能够通过知识转移,实现知识共享。随着对知识理论的深入研究,隐性知识被视为包含着企业核心能力,是企业成长的关键资源。然而,现阶段大量研究表明产学研联盟的隐性知识转移遭遇阻碍,导致很多核心知识和关键技术难以分享,严重制约产学研联盟的发展。分析产学研联盟的隐性知识转移阻碍成因,从互惠性偏好视角探讨隐性知识转移阻碍的协调机制对于推进产学研联盟的健康、长远发展具有现实意义。     

中印经济比较与合作

我国和印度在经济结构上形成鲜明对比,我国以制造业为核心,印度靠服务业带动。跨越了制造业的印度,虽然经济发展速度不如我国,但印度的经济发展质量超过我国。我们的“世界工厂”地位其实存在许多问题,而印度制造业正快马加鞭,将挑战我国的“世界工厂”地位。我国服务业发育严重不良,我国可以从印度的发展中学到不少的经验,最重要的经验就是印度强大的服务业。中国和印度的互补性合作将创造中印双赢的局面。     

“碳关税”对我国贸易的影响及应对策略——以纺织品行业为例

文章首先介绍了"碳关税"的概念;从成本竞争优势和环境责任的被动承担两个方面介绍了实施碳关税对我国贸易的总体影响;随后介绍了"碳关税"实施对我国纺织品行业的影响;最后从政府、行业和企业三个层面提出纺织品行业应对"碳关税"的策略。     

居民生活用电阶梯电价基础电量的测算

利用2010年浙江省城乡居民消费支出的截面数据和其他统计数据,基于扩展线性支出系统模型推算出浙江省城镇居民生活阶梯电价第1档电量为160kW·h／月,能覆盖浙江全省82．4％的居民用户,并结合城乡居民家庭各类家用电器的拥有量,揭示了居民各收入群体电力的消费行为和差异,验证了160kW·h的月户均用电量可以满足全社会80％以上家庭的主要家用电器的电能需求。运用扩展线性支出系统模型和计量经济学的方法．对居民基本生活用电的需求电量进行了研究和实证分析。     

知识生产激励锦标赛模型研究

本文以互惠偏好及其与制度共生演化为切入点,反思现有知识生产激励锦标赛模型对知识生产者互惠偏好演化路径的影响,揭示导致知识生产激励扭曲的偏好根源,提出必须根据当今团队知识生产的特点,建立与互惠偏好相融合的知识生产激励制度,使互惠偏好在知识生产合作中得到强化,促进知识生产效率的提高和知识生产的和谐可持续。     

美国反倾销贸易效应的实证分析

基于美国1998—2007年对外反倾销案的动态面板数据,应用一阶差分广义矩估计方法(SYS-GMM)考察其关税和反倾销对被诉国出口贸易和贸易份额的影响,结果表明:美国关税和反倾销措施在被诉国和被诉行业中都存在贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应,其中,对中国反倾销的贸易效应最大;比较关税与反倾销措施对被诉国出口的影响,发现美国实施反倾销措施的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应远大于关税,表明反倾销措施已经成为美国取代传统关税控制进口的重要贸易政策。     

Economics and politics of food standards,trade, and development#

Standards have played an important role in food trade for a very long time. Their rapid growth in recent years has triggered vigorous debates on their impacts on international trade and development, with many arguing that standards are “non‐tariff barriers” to trade and that standards are marginalizing the poor. I present conceptual frameworks and review empirical evidence on the equity and efficiency effects and the political economy of standards. Models which incorporate essential aspects of standards yield complex theoretical results and nuanced conclusions. Careful empirical analyses support such nuanced arguments and find complex effects. For trade, standards can create welfare gains but also involve rent redistribution which induces lobbying by interest groups to set the standards at their preferred level. This makes it difficult to distinguish socially desirable standards from those resulting from political rent‐seeking. For development, it is crucial to explicitly account for (a) the endogeneity of the institutional organization of value chains and (b) both smallholder contracting and employment creation on large scale farms when considering the impact of standards on development and poverty.