Raising the bar (5)

Raising the bar (5). Spatial Economic Analysis. This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in this issue 12(1) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper examines the impact of the level of education on the decision to migrate and finds that it is approximately twice as large if both variables are modelled simultaneously. The second paper is one of the first papers to introduce a spatial component to models of international environmental agreements and to develop an exciting overlap with New Economic Geography. The third paper provides a tool, applied to Beijing, with which urban economic planners can investigate the role of variation and selection mechanisms in cluster development and identify possible paths of growth. The fourth paper contributes to the existing literature on retail geography by examining the role of consumption possibilities as an urban amenity. The fifth paper develops a Bayesian estimator of a linear regression model with spatial lags among the dependent variable, the explanatory variables and the disturbances. Finally, the sixth paper develops a semi-parametric generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for a spatial autoregressive model with space-varying coefficients of the explanatory variables and a spatial autoregressive coefficient common to all units.     

Joint estimation using revealed and stated preference data: An application using a national forest

We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes.     

Site selection to test an integrated approach to agricultural research for development: combining expert knowledge and participatory Geographic Information System methods

The sub-Saharan Africa challenge programme is designed to address the problems of failures of agricultural markets, inappropriate policies and natural resource degradation, that contribute to the continuing deterioration of livelihoods and food security in the region. It is seeking to do this by redefining the roles of scientists and farmers through collaborative learning processes, addressing questions about the level, timing, type and formof participation, as well as themost effective approaches andmethods to foster them. The research domains of the programme deal with sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture, the sustainable management of natural resources, the development of efficient markets, and the promotion of enabling policies. One question that was addressed in designing the initiative was deciding where to work so as to maximize the chances of successful testing of this new approach, so that it would lead to significant reductions of rural poverty. A participatory process was put in place to design a framework to accomplish this site selection, and then to apply it in west, east and southern Africa. A mixture of spatial data analysis and expert knowledge on spatial and non-spatial factors was used, and one primary site in each region was identified to form the basis for the next phase of the challenge programme. Several lessons were learnt from the process, including the importance of adapting themethods to actual conditions, the increased utility of targetting when the quantitative and the qualitative are freely combined, and the continued need for baseline spatial and non-spatial data to improve the targeting of research in the future that is designed to alleviate poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Big Data and Dietary Trend: The Case of Avocado Imports in China

ABSTRACT

The advancement of data science and technology presents a unique opportunity to understand rapidly evolving dietary trend around the world. In this case study, we show that the Baidu index, a measurement of the intensity of user searches for specific words, helps explain and forecast the growth of avocado imports in China. Specifically, we find that China’s avocado imports rise by 8% in response to a 10% increase in the Baidu index. Furthermore, the inclusion of the Baidu index in a standard demand model reduces the prediction error by 2.7%.     

基础地理信息要素数据字典查询系统的研究与开发

研究了基础地理信息要素数据的数据结构,利用VB和ACCESS数据库作为开发工具,设计并开发了基础地理信息要素数据字典查询系统,实现了基础地理信息要素快速、准确的查询。     

上市公司内部审计机构设置及履行职责情况研究

将内部审计机构作为内部控制监督机构是国际内部审计发展的趋势,通过对沪市上市公司2010年报中披露的有关公司内部审计机构设置、命名、职责定位、履职情况、隶属关系等信息进行描述性统计分析,发现沪市公司在机构设置、职责定位、隶属关系方面合规率较高,但存在机构名称多元化、实际履职与职责定位不吻合等问题,主要原因是我国内部审计法律基础薄弱、政策依据缺乏统一性和刚性、政策理念滞后等。基于此,提出了应从完善审计法规、统一内部审计模式等方面予以改进的政策性建议。     

Seat-belt use still low in Kuwait: self-reported driving behaviours among adult drivers

Kuwait mandated seat-belt use by drivers in 1976 and by front seat passengers in 1994. The study objectives were to identify and estimate current factors associated with seat-belt use and levels of potentially unsafe driving behaviours in Kuwait. In 2010, 741 adults were surveyed regarding driving habits and history. Only 41.6% of drivers reported always using a seat belt. Front seat passenger belt use was more common (30.5%) than rear seat belt use (6.5%). Distracted driving behaviours were common, including mobile phone use (‘always’ or ‘almost always’: 51.1%) and texting/SMS (32.4%). Logistic regression indicated that drivers who were young (18–19 years), male, Kuwaiti nationals or non-Kuwaiti Arabs, drove over the speed limit, had traffic violation tickets or >1 car crashes in the last year, were less likely to use seat belts. Targeted initiatives to increase public awareness and to enforce car-safety legislation, including use of seat belts, are necessary to decrease the health burden of car crashes in Kuwait.     

专业化交易地理集中、区域市场一体化与浙中内陆城市圈层化——“义乌商圈”的空间效应分析

基于专业化交易地理集中促成的总合交易费用节约,义乌市场不仅衍生出周边产业集群,从而提升义乌城市集聚度,并进一步引致周边的浙中城市群走上圈层化的发展路径,构建起基于自主层级体系的城市共同体。本文借助新兴古典城市网络分层模型刻画了圈层化的微观机制,并启示内陆城市形成自主共同体,以获取类似海滨城市优势的途径。     

Estimating road traffic injuries in Jinja district,Uganda, using the capture-recapture method

ABSTRACT

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are commonly under-reported in low-and-medium-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the number of RTIs and determine the magnitude of under-reporting by traffic police and hospital registries. A two-source capture-recapture method was applied to RTI data from police and hospital registries. Seven matching variables; sex of the injured, date, place, time, day of crash and road user type were used to get the matched cases. Police independently reported 46 RTIs and the hospitals reported 206 RTIs. Using the capture-recapture analysis, both sources estimated 313 RTIs (95% CI 273–343). The police registry captured 14.4% of the estimated number of RTIs and the hospitals captured 60.4%. The estimated number of RTIs was higher than reported by either the police or the hospitals alone. Neither the police nor the hospitals provided accurate data on RTIs, calling for the strengthening of both sources of data.