经济高位运行 深层次矛盾突出——对当前宏观经济的分析与思考

2006年，中国经济增长速度再次加速，经济是否过热成为大家议论的热点。我们分析认为，虽然目前的经济高增长有一定合理的成分，但也使经济发展过程中固有的矛盾更加突出。事实上，经济发展中出现的问题（过热倾向）一方面需要短期政策的应对，更重要的是深层次矛盾的凸显意味着中国经济转型已到了不得不为的时候了。面对目前的经济发展态势，政策措施应兼顾短期与长期两方面，而且更多地需要从理顺利益关系、转变政府职能等制度性方面着手。     

楼面裂缝原因分析和防治措施的探讨

结合工作经验,对楼屋面板产生裂缝的原因进行了详细地分析,从设计、材料、施工三大方面提出改进和防治措施,从而提高建筑结构的安全性。     

The random-walk hypothesis revisited: new evidence on multiple structural breaks in emerging markets

We examine whether stock prices in 18 emerging markets follow random-walk or mean-reversion processes in the presence of sudden and gradual multiple structural breaks. Our tests endogenously determined the structural shifts and are more powerful than either the traditional random-walk (unit root) tests or the single structural break tests. In all emerging markets, we find strong evidence for multiple structural breaks. When we use single break tests, the random-walk hypothesis is rejected. However, when we use tests of double level shifts in the mean and make due allowance for multiple structural breaks, the results are consistent with the random-walk hypothesis in the vast majority of the sampled markets. The evidence proves robust to using price indexes whether denominated in U.S. dollars, in local currencies or in real terms, and also to using fractional integration tests. Our results contradict some previous studies for emerging markets which restrict structural breaks to only one-time shift.     

Impact of introducing eco-innovation measures on productivity in transport sector companies

This paper analyses the impact of factors related to innovation and the environment, among others, on labour productivity in the Spanish transport sector. The methodological approach used in this study was based on the CDM structural model. The main advantage of this model is its capacity to integrate investment in R&D and the generation of knowledge and production innovation. The data used in the estimations were obtained from the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) database. PITEC is a panel-type database jointly prepared by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology (FECYT). The econometric results show that reducing the environmental impact has a statistically significant and positive effect at all stages of the innovative process and above all on labour productivity of transport firms, where the improvement of labour productivity can reach 8.35% compared to non-ecoinnovative companies. This finding could alert firms in the transport sector to the need to improve their activities by adopting environmentally proactive attitudes.     

On Unmodeled Breaks in the Turn of the Year,Turn of the Month,and January Effects

We produce convincing new evidence that the turn of the year (TOY), turn of the month (TOM), and January effects are critically dependent on the sample period over which they are estimated. The TOY effect is significant in the value‐weight portfolio from 1962 to 1997. It becomes insignificant in the medium‐size portfolio after 1994 and in the equal‐weight and low‐size portfolios after 1997. The TOM effect becomes insignificant in the value‐weight and high‐size portfolios after 1978, in the equal‐weight and medium‐size portfolios after 1997, and in the low‐size portfolio after 1998. January effects are significant in some subperiods but not others.     

演化发展经济学与新结构经济学——哪一种产业政策的理论范式更适合中国国情

国际学术界有关产业政策的研究存在着两种不同的理论范式：演化经济学和后新古典经济学,这两种不同的理论范式在发展经济学领域中表现为演化发展经济学和新结构经济学的不同。两者的产业政策基于完全不同的理论基础：技术赶超或比较优势;新结构经济学有关政府作用的理论仍是以新古典经济学的市场失败理论为基础的,而演化发展经济学则在批判市场失败理论的基础上提出了一系列的新理论。在演化发展经济学家看来,新结构经济学不适合于中等收入国家,特别是在运用于作为超大型发展中国家的中国国情时存在着严重的缺陷;即使是运用于低收入国家,也是有局限性的。事实证明,技术赶超而非比较优势战略更适合中国国情;以自主创新为核心的基础全面的价值链升级正是我国所有地方政府都面临的共同挑战,而《吉林报告》则忽视了这一关键问题。《吉林报告》的缺陷说明,聚焦于传统意义上产业部门之间区别的新结构经济学已不适应新国际分工对产业政策提出的新要求,演化发展经济学所关注的价值链特定环节、核心技术和组织能力已经成为产业政策的核心问题。因此,一个重要的问题就摆在了中国经济学界的面前：是通过新结构经济学研究中国经济发展问题,还是在演化发展经济学基础之上,针对中国作为超大型发展中国家的国情,发展一种历史和国情特定的中国经济发展理论?     

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

We explore how investor attention paid to dangerous nuclear tests influences financial market outcomes. To measure the attention paid to North Korean nuclear threats, we introduce a weekly Google search volume index for keywords on North Korean nuclear events. Using a time‐varying structural vector autoregression model with block exogeneity restrictions, we find that investor attention paid to nuclear threats has heterogeneous effects on South Korea's stock prices across industries and over time: attention on only the first nuclear test was negatively related to the stock price index, which vanished thereafter. Moreover, the investor attention paid to the nuclear risk reduced stock prices, especially in the banking industry, during the entire sample period.     

对地方金融风险的研究：文献综述视角

地方金融风险问题越来越受到学术界的关注,但很多方面尚未达成共识。本文试图对相关文献梳理和提炼,并对当前研究热点剖析,希冀掀起新的研究热潮。     

中国农业问题形成的因素分析

中国农业存在着诸多问题,这些问题产生的原因既有自然方面的,也有社会和经济方面的。对自然的依赖、劳动对象的生理性、长生产周期、土地要素的难以替代性是中国农业问题产生的自然原因;古老的产业、弱势的地位、户籍制度等是中国农业问题产生的社含原因;农业竞争的独特性、经营方式的限定性、产品的特殊性等是中国农业问题产生的经济原因。