Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.     

科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性及政府干预

从理论上论述了政府干预科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性的必要性、途径及作用机制。基于以耦合系统内部结构为表征的实体子系统脆弱性和以公共创新环境、耦合系统综合效益为测评工具的虚像子系统脆弱性3个维度构建耦合系统脆弱性指数，分别采用静态面板固定效应回归及动态面板两阶段系统GMM回归，实证检验了我国政府干预对耦合系统脆弱性的实质影响。研究表明：在各类干预举措中，政府采购政策与知识产权保护政策效应明显，特别是知识产权保护政策效应潜力巨大；财政政策领域明显存在过度干预现象，其它政策效应或不显著或有违初衷，亟待调整与完善。     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

It makes me feel vulnerable! The impact of public self-disclosure on online complaint behavior

Genuine reviews are essential for financial performance and for customer trust. In the case of a negative experience, withholding negative reviews may lead to biased online information. This paper aims to investigate two factors that may prompt customers to withhold their complaints (i.e., identity disclosure and locus of control). The study adopts a sequential exploratory mixed-method approach. An exploratory interview phase compares public vs anonymous online environments, and explores the reasons why dissatisfied customers might decide not to complain. An experiment then shows that vulnerability is a key mechanism preventing negative reviews. This effect is exaggerated when customers perceive that they do not have control over the events happening in their lives (i.e., external locus of control). Our work uncovers an important determinant of online complaint behavior, vulnerability. It also offers practical suggestions, such as improving confidentiality, to increase a customer's willingness to complain following a negative experience.     

一种社区商业模式脆弱性探析

脆弱性分析在诸领域中作为新兴研究方法,越来越受到关注。研究社区商业脆弱性是实现社区商业良性发展的重要内容。本文利用脆弱性原理,针对便利城模式表现出脆弱性的不同侧面,在环境因素干扰及居民多样化需求下,便利城结构发生不稳定性和波动现象,通过建立脆弱性模型及气压场模型,分析了便利城结构脆弱性现象及产生原因并提出应对策略。     

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities

Climate change is an inevitable trend,which challenges security of water resources in China,especially in cities.Assessing vulnerability of water resource to climate change in cities has important role for policy makers. The paper constructs a vulnerability function,including exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,according to the vulnerability concept proposed by IPCC,establishes an assessment indicators system of water resources to climate change in cities,and analyzes vulnerability features of Chinese cites based on 655 cities＇data in 2006.The vulnerability assessment results show that there are distinctive differences among all the cities,between east,central and west cities,between ordinary,big and mega cities,while there is no statistical significant difference between north and south cities.Based on the research,the paper suggests that strategic emphasis should focus on the central cities and ordinary cities     

再议因患寡而患不均:中国家庭住宅权属差异及其对内需增长的影响

住宅权属差异导致了家庭住宅财富差异,进而影响了家庭消费偏好.本文基于一个非住宅耐用品消费决策的随机最优控制模型,采用1991—2006年 CHNS 数据并运用动态面板数据模型,考察了家庭住宅权属差异对耐用品消费的影响.本文的主要发现是,同理论预期一致,自有住宅家庭的耐用品消费明显高于租住房屋家庭,而且住宅权属消费效应随着家庭脆弱性增强而下降.本文的政策含义是要通过降低家庭脆弱性、创新保障性住房分配模式来缩小居民住宅权属差异和促进消费增长     

A new pattern of risk management: The Hyogo Framework for Action and Italian practise

On January 2005, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2025: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002]. This “white paper” seeks to promote “an effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002. p. 1] outlining a strategic and systematic approach to reduce vulnerabilities and risks to hazards.

The current paper discusses each aspect of the Hyogo approach in relation to the Italian experience. Italy represents an interesting case because of its multiple hazard environment, and the fact that it has developed an integrated approach to risk reduction planning. Strengths and weaknesses of the “Italian way” of dealing with risk are identified, and compared with the theoretical processes suggested by the framework. Implementation of selected key actions in Italy has helped identify a series of obstacles to progress, further defining the gap that still exists between theoretical framework and actual practise.

The various activities constituting “risk management” (viz., assessment, prevention, mitigation, monitoring, early warning, preparedness) are here considered in a comprehensive framework wherein each phase is connected to the others. The paper focuses on natural hazards, which are more frequent in Italy (landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, natural soil erosion). The main results include:

• A new process for dealing with risk, using the framework for guidance, is identified. We track the reasons for Italy gradually adopting this process in dealing with her vulnerabilities to natural hazards.

• Those factors that appear to interfere with an integrated approach to risk management are identified as a function of selected experiences.

• Guidelines for analysing vulnerabilities to disaster in a multi-hazard, integrated context are proposed.

金融普惠可以提高减贫质量吗?——基于多维贫困的分析

切实提高减贫质量对我国打赢打好脱贫攻坚战和守住脱贫成果至关重要。金融普惠作为当前我国金融改革和脱贫攻坚的重要举措,是否有助于提高减贫质量仍是有待回答的问题。文章基于中国家庭金融调查2015年数据,从多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性两方面出发研究了金融普惠对我国农村减贫质量的影响。研究发现,金融普惠可以同时降低农村家庭多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性,并且对多维贫困问题严重的农村家庭有更大的作用;区分不同贫困和不同金融服务发现,金融普惠可以显著降低收入贫困、教育贫困及生活质量贫困,对健康贫困的影响则不显著;银行营业网点与金融服务点渗透、以及储蓄、贷款、保险及数字金融服务使用可以提高减贫质量,而其他金融机构渗透、信用卡使用及银行服务评价的作用相对有限。进一步地,文章研究了金融普惠减贫质量效应的环境条件,发现村庄市场及制度环境和家庭需求环境改善有助于充分发挥金融普惠的积极作用,相反则可能构成一定的制约。最后,文章检验了金融普惠的影响机制,发现促进农村家庭人力与物质资本积累、以及地区经济发展等在其中发挥了重要的中介作用。文章结论为我国提高减贫质量提供了可靠的政策工具,同时也可促进我国全面建成小康社会和经济实现高质量发展。     

Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore,India

Integrating adaptation and mitigation response actions to climate change in urban-level policies requires comprehensive information on vulnerability patterns, yet a majority of local governments and decision makers in various cities in developing nations lack spatially explicit information on climate change vulnerability and its key drivers. In addition, there is no standardised method for an all-inclusive vulnerability assessment at the local level. Results from higher broad-scale vulnerability assessments are difficult to implement conceptually and technically at the local scale. We present a climate change vulnerability assessment approach at the city scale that considers three main components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were assessed within each component and were combined using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The standardisation of indicators under each component was conducted, along with weighting, at each level of the vulnerability assessment hierarchy. The vulnerability assessment approach was applied to an urban area in India; namely, Bangalore metropolitan area. The application of vulnerability assessment approach was demonstrated and a spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability patterns was presented. The spatial pattern of vulnerability identifies areas urgently requiring attention to adaptation action, while vulnerability assessment enables policy intervention and prioritization at local spatial scales. This study presents a rational to integrate vulnerability assessment approach within the urban planning realm in Bangalore metropolitan area where according to our study approximately 91% of the area is facing high degree of climate vulnerability.