Fuzzy multicriteria for developing a risk management system in seismically prone areas

Earthquakes pose a predominant risk to cities in seismically prone areas. This paper addresses the need to mitigate the exposure of cities to seismic risk in general and to existing and new build structures in particular. The many and complex factors to be considered require a form of Multi-Criteria Decision making system to be adopted. To cope with the interactions between socio-economic factors and the roles of multiple participants, criteria and alternatives the paper proposes the use of a fuzzy multi-criteria model. The fuzzy methodology forms the basis for the development of a composite fuzzy risk index for prioritizing different regions in Iran. The findings suggest that early risk assessments in seismically prone areas should be conducted in order to determine the multi-dimensional aspects of seismic risk including vulnerability and emergency response management.     

From coping to adaptation to economic and institutional change – Trajectories of change in land-use management and social organization in a Biosphere Reserve community,Mexico

Smallholder farming communities are increasingly affected by local impacts of international market dynamics, and (inter)governmental economic and nature conservation policies to which they respond through coping or adaptation. Although the attributes that underpin the capacity to adapt are widely agreed upon in literature, empirical evidence on how rural communities can develop adaptations are still scarce. Here, we provide such evidence based on a comprehensive driver-response reconstruction of a community in the buffer-zone of a Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico. We found that coping (between 1990 and 2000) was gradually replaced by adaptations (1995–2010) based on: (i) diversification of land-use, (ii) improved social organization, (iii) improved communal decision-making, and (iv) more sustainable forms of land management. The diversification of local farming systems through inclusion of organic forest-based palm and coffee cultivation and the establishment of associated organizations, formed the basis of these changes. These adaptations were mainly supported by improved social, institutional and political capital. Communal forest resources, long-term support of an NGO and a highly motivated population, were essential circumstances that allowed these trajectories to develop. However, current unequal land and power distribution could undermine and debilitate adaptive capacity. Communities and supportive organizations need to be aware and capable to adjust continuously to prevent today's adaptation strategies from becoming tomorrow's coping responses.     

A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer

In this paper, we propose a new profit-to-provisioning approach that can be used in the macroprudential decision-making process. We construct new Banking Prudence Indicators (BPI) that largely capture the risk of cyclicality of profit and loan loss provisions and should monitor the forward-looking ability of the expected credit loss approach under International Financial Reporting Standard 9. We evaluate the performance of our newly proposed BPIs using two econometric exercises. Overall, they exhibit good statistical properties, are relevant to the countercyclical capital buffer decision-making process, and might contribute to a more precise assessment of both systemic risk accumulation and risk materialization.     

International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During the taper tantrum, while controlling for the EMEs’ economic fundamentals, financial conditions also deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) During the EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities. (5) However, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode; it also occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008 and, subsequently, during financial stress episodes related to the European sovereign crisis in 2011 and China’s financial market stresses in 2015.     

A communication framework for climatic risk and enhanced green growth in the eastern coast of Ghana

Progresses made in global responses to climate change shows that adaptation is gradually finding its way into development planning, yet delays are generally expected from competing priorities of several sectors, policy and knowledge challenges. To understand these dynamics, a pathway for enhanced climatic risk communication, which is a form of a non-structural adaptation, was analyzed in Ghana’s coastal zones. Two learning platforms, the Community-based Risk Screening Tool for Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL), and U-Learning (Theory U-Process) were used to engage the state level policy-making process in governing development within coastal zones in the face of increased climatic risks and climate change impacts. Local livelihood priorities showed that a national level development planning framework that excluded local contexts of climatic risks face possible maladaptation. Subsequently the process that was engaged in the local contextualization of climatic risks and development in selected Districts culminated in the consensus framework, Coastal Zone Green Growth (CZGG), informed mostly by concerns over clean energy usage and ecologically compatible use of coastal resources. Therefore the CZGG potentially provides co-benefits for enhanced ecosystem services, livelihoods and adaptation. Thus, it constitutes a denominator for measuring climatic risks and adaptation to potentially inform the policy-making process towards sustainable coastal zone management practices. Except for the desired goals of CZGG being far reaching and futuristic, they overlapped with goals of the adaptation strategies of the local population, which are similar to development goals. Therefore communicating localized contexts of coastal climatic risks of which sea level rise is seen often as remote to planning, could strengthen risk management in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and enhance resilience of vulnerable communities. However, this will require the designation of a body which is accustomed to the local issues to facilitate, harmonize and coordinate multi-sector actions and diverse stakeholders’ interests for the CZGG to become a reality in contributing to ICZM in Ghana.     

Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab,Pakistan: A multilevel analysis

This study estimates the prevalence and extent of vulnerability to poverty in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A multilevel model is used to analyze survey data of about 90,000 households distributed across 150 towns/tehsils. Empirical estimates show that the vulnerability rate is higher than the rate of poverty, and poverty-induced vulnerability is higher than risk-induced vulnerability. Moreover, idiosyncratic-vulnerability is higher than covariate-vulnerability. Unlike previous studies that find poverty to be a rural phenomenon, this research shows that poverty and vulnerability are equally high in urban areas. A high level of urban vulnerability adds urgency to anti-poverty interventions given a rapid urbanization in Pakistan.     

金融稳定性评估理论基础、方法与应用

金融危机的频繁爆发,使得金融稳定性评估成为现代金融经济学研究的重要问题,大量权威文献或者对金融稳定性进行理论分析,或者对金融稳定性问题进行实证研究,考察金融稳定性丧失所带来的经济与社会成本。金融稳定性的应用评估,可分成单一机构、子部门、区域和国家四个层次,分别进行定性的诊断式评估和定量的状态或趋势评估。以中国为例,采取结构化方式构建金融稳定指数和金融稳定判别区间,在单个金融机构稳定性参数分析基础上,按照一定的规则和权重,可以计算区域、金融子部门(行业)和金融系统的稳定性加总状况。本文最后提出了中国金融稳定性评估的应用模式和可操作实践框架。     

Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking

Weather forecasts, climate change projections, and epidemiological predictions all represent domains that are using forecast data to take early action for risk management. However, the methods and applications of the modeling efforts in each of these three fields have been developed and applied with little cross-fertilization. This perspective identifies best practices in each domain that can be adopted by the others, which can be used to inform each field separately as well as to facilitate a more effective combined use for the management of compound and evolving risks. In light of increased attention to predictive modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify three major areas that all three of these modeling fields should prioritize for future investment and improvement: (1) decision support, (2) conveying uncertainty, and (3) capturing vulnerability.     

Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity

This paper develops a Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index (VFII). Currently, there is no standard indicator of vulnerability analysis in food security research, and this paper responds to this challenge. The primary objective in this paper is to demonstrate how to develop a potential indicator and establish its validity through comparison with other traditional food security indicators, such as per capita calorie consumption (PCC), food consumption score (FCS) and the coping strategy index (CPI). Structurally, Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index is a multidimensional index of the probability of covariate shock occurring (exposure), the accumulative experience of food insecurity (sensitivity) and coping ability of households (adaptive capacity). The paper applies the index to households in southern Nigeria, using the World Bank’s generalised household panel dataset. The results show 61% of households in the study to be highly vulnerable to food insecurity, 12% mildly vulnerable and 27% not vulnerable. Traditional and single indicators, such as FCS and PCC are not good indicators of vulnerability to food insecurity whereas CPI is a better indicator of vulnerability to food insecurity compared to FCS and PCC. The VFII developed in this paper includes components of FCS, PCC, and CPI and regarding ranking, the VFII was found to be reliable. Most importantly, the analysis using the VFII reveals how dietary diversity or calorie consumption indicators can exclude some households who are vulnerable to food insecurity. The paper concluded that accurately target long-term support to vulnerable households, policymakers who seek to address the underlying causes of food insecurity cannot rely on single indicators, and for this type of goal, the VFII makes a useful contribution.     

Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada

To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011–2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010–2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981–2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (−17% days), operating ski lifts (−3%), skiable terrain (−9%), reduced snow quality (e.g., -46% days with packed powder), snowmaking days (−18%), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., +300% in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10% decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small −20%, intermediate −14%, large −8%). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.