日本参与TPP的政治经济分析

2011年底,日本正式做出了加入TPP谈判的官方决定。这是日本实施其FTA战略的重要举措,同时也是日本民主党政府在综合考虑各种利益得失基础上所做出的一项政治决断。但是,无论从日本国内的情况还是TPP的谈判标准来看,日本在政治、经济和社会等方面仍然面临着一系列困难和制约因素,能否最终加入TPP还存在不确定性。     

基于物流绩效指数的RCEP国家物流发展比较

亚太区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)各成员国的物流绩效的提高,对促进成员国的贸易发展、提升国际贸易水平具有重要意义。利用RCEP各成员国的物流绩效指数(LPI),通过多角度分析、探索物流高水平发展的新路径。分析发现中国在基础设施方面取得了一定的成效,但在清关及物流服务质量和能力方面依然有待提高。通过物流绩效指数聚类,将RCEP成员国分为三类不同物流水平的国家,第一类为物流高水平国家,包括新加坡、日本、澳大利亚、韩国、新西兰和中国;第二类为物流中水平国家,包括印度尼西亚、越南、马来西亚和泰国;第三类为物流低水平国家,包括柬埔寨、文莱、菲律宾、老挝和缅甸。通过计算各成员国LPI变异系数发现,物流高水平国家的物流绩效基本保持稳定,低水平国家中有的能持续上升,有的表现则很不稳定。物流中水平国家,需要保持持续增长趋势,才能不断缩小与物流高水平国家之间的差距,而物流低水平国家则需要全方位的提升。     

Information Effects During the U. S. Subprime Crisis

We investigate the impact of the U. S. subprime crisis on the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific countries on various event dates. Using data from Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan, we find that the subprime crisis negatively affects these stock markets and investor behavior, especially in Hong Kong and Taiwan. In addition, the subprime crisis generally works through more financial linkages than trade linkages. However, when the subsamples are classified according to industry, this result exists only for the banking industry, but both financial and trade linkages become important to explain the impact of the crisis on the manufacturing industry.     

Charismatic leadership in IT firms in Taiwan: an empirical study

This study aims to look at charismatic leadership and management innovation in a sample of Information Technology firms in Taiwan. The literature on such leadership was examined because it reveals how leaders serve as key agents who stimulate others with their vision of the potential of an innovation. Theoretically, we suggest that charismatic leadership behaviour can help management innovation but only when certain conditions are met. Empirically, we find that charismatic leaders must create a higher level of trust in their subordinates at all levels of the organizational hierarchy, based on common perceptions of the firm as a trustworthy entity.     

Anti-corruption commissions: lessons for the Asia-Pacific region from a proposed Australian federal anti-corruption watchdog

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the experience of anti-corruption commissions in the region and argues that the debate on the establishment of a national anti-corruption body in Australia is dependent on the country’s political culture, institutions and elites. Corruption and integrity coexist and are conceived as the obverse and converse, respectively, of a functional and dysfunctional system. Anti-corruption bodies in the Asia-Pacific region are compared against applicable global anti-corruption frameworks, policies and principles. The paper proposes a conceptual model for a National Integrity Ecosystem (NIE), premised on community values and trust and situates the Australian experience within such an ecosystem. A federal anti-corruption watchdog is the missing piece in Australia’s institutional infrastructure. Its acceptance and effectiveness require difficult and sustained change in the underlying political culture of the country and its elites.     

拜登政府准备重返亚太吗?

拜登就任美国总统后,需要对特朗普时期的美国战略进行调整,重建亚太合作关系是其中的重要选项。为此,拜登政府应重新考虑修改并加入CPTPP,加强与盟国的国际经贸合作,并使应对气候变化政策成为拜登政府自贸协定的一个重要标志。     

Do regional trade agreements increase trade? Empirical evidence from the Asia–Pacific region

This article examines the effects of regional trade agreements. The augmented gravity model of international trade is used to test for trade creation and diversion in the context of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. The results of the estimated model indicate that trade has increased among the members of AFTA and APTA but not among the AANZFTA members. Differences in the levels of development appear to have a significant impact on trade flows, suggesting that there can be no general presumption about the extent of trade creation and trade diversion.     

Exploring causality in trade and air passenger travel relationships: the case of Asia-Pacific, 1980–2010

This paper explores the potential of heterogeneous Granger analysis in transport geography research by applying this method to a specific case of the often complex and potentially reciprocal linkages between the deployment of transport infrastructures and spatial economic development: the linkages between rising intra-regional volumes of trade and air passenger traffic in Asia-Pacific. Although conceptual and empirical linkages between both indicators can be assumed based on previous research, relatively little is known about the actual causality. Using heterogeneous Time Series Cross Section Granger causality analysis for the period 1980–2010, we explore the presence of four ‘causality scenarios’ amongst different country-pairs: (1) there is no co-evolution, implying that both patterns develop independently (e.g. Japan–Australia); (2) there is ‘real’ co-evolution in that both patterns influence each other through feedback loops (e.g. South Korea–Philippines); (3) air passenger traffic is facilitated by trade (e.g., South Korea–Philippines); or (4) trade is facilitated by air passenger traffic (e.g. Australia–Malaysia). Some tentative interpretations of this heterogeneity are offered.     

汇率变化与贸易平衡——基于中国与亚太主要贸易体的研究

基于中国与13个亚太主要贸易体的双边贸易数据以及最新的面板协整计量方法,本文对贸易平衡与汇率变动之间的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,人民币相对于各贸易伙伴的升值,在有限程度上能够减少我国的贸易盈余,改善伙伴国的贸易平衡状况。然而数据表明,贸易伙伴国贸易收支的恶化,主要还是由于其经济总量扩张导致对"中国制造"需求增长所致,汇率对于贸易平衡的影响要有限得多。对于美国等发达国家,要减少其相对于中国的贸易赤字,关键是要逐步取消对华技术产品的出口限制,试图通过逼迫人民币升值来改善其贸易平衡状况的想法忽略了问题的本质所在。     

亚太地区油气地缘政治博弈分析及战略选择

文章通过分析亚太地区油权均势特征和油气地缘格局，权衡大国之间的抗衡与制约态势，全方位分析了博弈矛盾基内的中、日、美核心博弈以及与之相关的多极博弈态势。根据均势原则认为亚太地区地缘格局会在较长时期出现大国互相制约，小国在平衡中寻求利益最大化的平静时期。而面对美国及其盟国的多层次地缘政治封锁，中国应该“避风就势，联合抗衡”，保障油气安全及供应多元化。