The influence of accountability on overconfidence and resistance to change: A research framework and experimental evidence

This paper presents a research framework and demonstrates how commitment to a particular course of action might lead to information search that is biased in favour of the chosen alternative. The framework also incorporates accountability as a strategy for mitigating overconfidence and resistance to change.An experiment was conducted to test the predictions of the proposed framework. Results of the experiment indicate that commitment to a particular cost allocation system leads to increased desirability of the chosen system and decreased desirability of the rejected alternative. The results also show that managers who are committed to a particular cost allocation system become too conservative and overconfident in their preferred system, which leads to high resistance to change. These effects, however, were attenuated by making the managers accountable for the negative consequences of their decisions.     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.     

Learning across the life cycle: Experimentation and performance among the hollywood studio heads

Guided by notions from the literature on organizational learning, this paper investigates how product line experimentation and organizational performance change across the careers of top managers. Its subjects are the studio heads who ran all the major Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. The study found first, that product line experimentation declines over the course of executive tenures; second, that there is an inverse U‐shaped relationship between top executive tenure and an organization's financial performance; and third, that product line experimentation is more likely to benefit financial performance late in top executives' tenures. These findings are consistent with a three‐stage ‘executive life cycle’. During the early years of their tenures, top managers experiment intensively with their product lines to learn about their business; later on their accumulated knowledge allows them to reduce experimentation and increase performance; finally, in their last years, executives reduce experimentation still further, and performance declines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Philosophical Foundations of Eminent Hong Kong Chinese CEOs’ Leadership

Because of the importance of Confucian doctrines in shaping ethical business practices under Chinese leadership, revealing the roles of other Chinese ethical doctrines in modern Chinese leadership is informative. A thorough understanding of the ethical foundations of Chinese leadership is necessary for fruitful interaction with Chinese leaders, according to cultural fit theory. The present study illustrates the philosophical foundations of business management, based on dialogues with five eminent corporate executive officers (CEOs). It reveals that the CEOs practice a style of Chinese leadership synthesizing Confucian, Daoist, Mohist, and Legalist doctrines. The Confucian doctrines advocate benevolence, harmony, learning, loyalty, righteousness, and humility. They are the most prevalent tenets that support paternalism and collectivism. The Daoist doctrines emphasize flexibility and reversion (e.g., the principle that the weak can defeat the strong). They bolster the leader’s forbearance. The Mohist doctrines underpin thrift and working with the masses whereas the Legalist doctrines inculcate self-control and innovativeness. Hence, contemporary Chinese leadership does not rely exclusively on Confucian ethics and this reflects evolution over 1000s of years.     

Strategic groups as reference groups: Theory,modeling and empirical examination of industry and competitive strategy

Previous studies on strategic groups have mainly focused on their static characteristics in order to test the theory of strategic groups and intraindustry performance differences (Porter, 1979; Cool and Schendel, 1988; Fiegenbaum and Thomas, 1990). In contrast, this study takes a longitudinal, dynamic perspective and describes the forces driving strategic group membership and structural evolution. It proposes that a strategic group acts as a reference point for group members in formulating competitive strategy. A partial adjustment model of strategic mobility is then developed which incorporates the idea of a strategic group as a reference group. It models strategic change in an industry both within and across strategic groups. The model is tested in the context of an in-depth industry analysis of the more significant firms in the insurance industry over the 1970-84 time period. The results suggest that strategic groups act as reference points for firm strategies and that predictions of future firm strategies and industry/group structures may also be successfully derived.     

Modeling society with statistical mechanics: an application to cultural contact and immigration

We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values (opinions, behaviors, etc.) are favored by individual interactions under given social conditions. Predictions at the population level are then drawn using methods from statistical mechanics, a branch of theoretical physics born to link the microscopic and macroscopic behavior of physical systems. We demonstrate our approach building a model of cultural contact between two cultures (e.g., immigration), showing that it is possible to make predictions about how contact changes the two cultures.     

Localized Innovation and Productivity Growth in Asia: An Intertemporal DEA Approach

Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic viewpoint adopted until now. New databases on output, labor and capital input in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors are developed for 40 countries. Using intertemporal DEA, it is found that changes in the global production frontier are localized at high levels of capital intensity. This result is stronger in agriculture than in manufacturing. Further, a decomposition of labor productivity growth in eight Asian countries for the period 1975–1992 into the effects of capital intensification, learning and innovation is made. The results suggest that there is a particular development path in which increases in capital intensity appear to be a prerequisite to benefit from international technology spillovers.JEL Classification: O14, O30, O40, O47     

Applying efficiency measurement techniques to the measurement of productivity change

Deterministic frontier analysis (DFA), stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), and data envelopment analysis (DEA) are alternative analytical techniques designed to measure the efficiency of producers. All three techniques were originally developed within a cross-sectional context, in which the objective is to compare the efficiencies of producers. More recently all three techniques have been extended for use in a panel data context. In the latter context it is possible to measure productivity change, and to decompose measured productivity change into its sources, one of which is efficiency change. However when efficiency measurement techniques, particularly SFA, have been applied to panel data, it has infrequently been made clear what the objective of the analysis is: the measurement of efficiency, which may vary through time as well as across producers, or the measurement and decomposition of productivity change. In this paper I explore the use of each technique in a panel data context. I find DFA and DEA to have achieved a more satisfactory reorientation toward productivity measurement than SFA has.     

In at the deep end: Conducting processual research on organisational change

This article provides a series of reflections on the practice of carrying out processual research on organisational change. At a broad level, some of the main tasks associated with conducting company case studies are described and the benefits of this approach for dealing with complex change data are outlined. At a more specific level, the article addresses three main areas tied to the actual “doing” of processual research. First, the notion of tacit knowledge and “getting your hands dirty” by engaging in ongoing in-depth fieldwork. Second, the design and implementation of a longitudinal case study research programme. Third, the advantages and concerns of combining a range of different data collecting techniques in carrying out processual studies. Overall, the main intention is to provide some useful reflections and practical insights, as well as providing something of the flavour of carrying out this type of research.     

信息披露监管模式变更影响企业投资效率吗？——基于双重差分模型的实证检验

基于制度变迁理论考察信息披露监管模式由“辖区监管”变更为“分行业监管”对投资效率的影响。研究发现：分行业信息披露监管模式的实施有效抑制了上市公司非效率投资行为,且对于低质量信息披露以及高盈余管理行为的上市公司抑制效应更加明显;提高会计信息可比性,降低代理成本是其发挥抑制作用的重要路径。在排除了替代性解释和内生性问题以及通过安慰剂检验后,研究结论仍然成立。