经济集聚与区域创新的交互影响及空间溢出

本文从空间视角下考察了经济集聚与区域创新的关系。基于2000-2016年长三角地区152个县级行政区的数据,运用空间联立方程模型考察了经济集聚与区域创新的内生双向影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现:经济集聚与区域创新间存在双向促进关系,忽略区域创新对经济集聚的反向影响会显著高估经济集聚对区域创新的促进作用。经济集聚与区域创新均存在显著的空间溢出效应和地区交互影响,即本地和邻近地区的经济集聚均显著促进了本地的区域创新,本地和邻近地区的区域创新均显著促进了本地的经济集聚。空间溢出效应的边界检验表明,经济集聚与区域创新的空间溢出及地区交互影响均随着距离的增加而减弱。中介效应模型的估计结果表明区域创新通过增长极效应、产业结构优化效应和创新网络化对经济集聚产生反向影响。本文认为经济集聚与区域创新可实现双赢,区域发展和区域创新政策应形成融合联动。应树立经济发展与区域创新的全局战略思维,构建共生互利的区域发展和创新格局。     

储蓄-投资相关性及影响因素的国际研究──基于发展中国家的面板协整分析

储蓄与投资是经济增长的两个基本要素,它们之间的相关关系一直都是现代宏观经济理论研究的核心问题,对此,本文结合最新发展的面板单位根检验及面板协整检验等方法,对中国、巴拉圭等24个发展中国家进行跨国比较,分别从总体样本和单位样本的角度对储蓄-投资的相关关系进行研究,并在此基础上对两者关系形成的各种影响因素进行综合检验。研究结果表明,在本文研究的样本国家及时期内,储蓄与投资在总体上呈现出显著的相关关系,而且与发达国家相比,发展中国家具有相对较小的储蓄-投资相关系数。与此同时,本文研究发现,储蓄-投资相关系数与总抚养比率、经济增长显著相关,而国家规模、贸易开放程度等并非储蓄-投资相关系数大小的决定性因素。     

Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach

We employ recently developed cross-sectionally robust panel data tests for unit roots and cointegration to find whether house prices reflect house related earnings. We use U.S. data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with house price measured by the weighted-repeated-sales index and cash-flows by market tenants’ rents. In our full sample period, an error-correction model is not appropriate, i.e. there is a bubble. We then combine overlapping 10-year periods, price–rent ratios, and the panel data tests to construct a bubble indicator. The indicator is high for the late 1980s, early 1990s and since the late 1990s. Finally, evidence based on panel data Granger causality tests suggests that house price changes are helpful in predicting changes in rents and vice versa. CERGE-EI is a joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.     

汇率与股价关联的实证研究——基于汇改后中国大陆、台湾、香港的数据

通过运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对汇率制度改革后中国大陆、台湾、香港的股市与汇市关系的实证结果表明,中国大陆汇市与股市存在长期稳定的协整关系,短期相互影响明显;台湾汇市与股市只存在短期的相互效应;香港数据表明两者不存在因果关系,但方差分解显示股市变动对汇率波动有一定的冲击效应.     

银行竞争与经济增长的协整和因果关系分析

文章运用中国1979—2006年的时间序列数据,从中国金融变革路径的角度,分析了经济增长和银行集中度的关系,考虑到中国金融体制改革的轨迹,用非国有银行的信贷余额占整个信贷余额的份额作为银行竞争的指标。利用协整和因果关系分析得出：非国有银行信贷余额的份额和经济增长存在长期的协整关系．其信贷余额的增加能够促进经济增长;非国有银行信贷余额比例的增加是促进经济增长的原因,而反之则不是。说明了由政府主导而不是由市场诱发的中国高度集中的银行体制改革促进了我国经济的发展,尤其在中国的劳动密集型行业大发展阶段。考虑到我国地区发展不平衡及沿海产业转移的背景,本文提出中西部地区应该发展中小银行,而东部地区应该适当加大银行的集中度等政策建议。     

Is integration I(d) applicable to observed economics and finance time series?

The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called ‘integration I(d)’. A class of regression models where cointegration works was identified by Granger and yields the ergodic behavior required for equilibrium expectations in standard economics. Detrended finance market returns are martingales, and martingales do not satisfy regression equations. We ask if there exist detrended processes beyond standard regression models that satisfy integration I(d). We show that stationary increment martingales are confined to the Wiener process, and observe that martingales describing finance data admit neither the integration I(d) nor the ergodicity required for long time equilibrium relationships. In particular, the martingales derived from finance data do not admit the time (or ‘space’) translational invariance required for increment stationarity. Our analysis explains the lack of equilibrium observed earlier between FX rates and relative price levels.     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel cointegration analysis

In this paper, the recently developed panel unit root and the Pedroni cointegration tests are applied to empirically examine the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (F–H puzzle) for a heterogeneous panel of 14 Latin American and five Caribbean countries over the period, 1960–2002. The findings indicate that in these countries, the long-run solvency condition is maintained. Finally, employing the Pedroni panel group FM-OLS estimator (2000, 2001), it is found that the statistically significant estimated savings-retention coefficient for the panel is relatively small indicating that the F–H Puzzle is not valid and thus implying the prevalence of a moderate degree of capital mobility.

An empirical analysis of international labour migration in the Philippines

This study empirically investigates the impact of economic, demographic, and political factors on the size of emigration from the Philippines. In 2007, overseas workers from the Philippines sent remittances in excess of US$14 billion annually to their families back home. Although these remittances are an important source of foreign exchange and play an important role in economic development, the determinants of emigration in the Philippines are not well established. A simple unrestricted error correction model of migration was specified and estimated using data spanning the period 1975–2005. Results indicate that the level of unemployment, adult literacy and population density are the key determinants of emigration in the Philippines. The result also indicates that government instability impacts negatively on emigration in the Philippines. The policy implications of the results are discussed.     

创业环境与创业效果评价研究

通过分析创业环境与创业效果评价的必要性,设计了创业环境与创业效果评价的创业平台、创业效果、创业氛围、创业支持4个变量,构建了创业环境与创业效果评价的结构方程模型,运用SPSS与LISREL软件对调查数据进行了运算。研究发现,创业平台与创业氛围正相关,创业平台与创业支持正相关,创业效果与创业氛围正相关,创业效果与创业支持正相关。