ETF基金的投资优势与投资风险研究

由于ETF基金收益率的稳定性、投资的分散性以及高流动性,越来越多的投资者开始投资于这类基金.但是投资ETF并不是一劳永逸的投资方式,它同样存在着许多风险.本文分析了ETF基金的投资风险,以期投资者能更合理的选择投资策略.     

ETF在我国证券市场中的发展

交易所交易基金(ETF)是近年来我国证券市场中备受关注的新型金融产品。我国于2004年推出了第一只ETF——上证50ETF,引起了广泛关注。本文针对ETF在我国发展这一年多以来,与其他投资工具相比凸现的优势、发展中遇到的问题进行了深入论述,并对ETF未来的发展方向进行了探讨。     

What Drives ETF Flows?

The value of exchange traded fund (ETF) assets has increased from $66 billion in 2000 to almost a trillion dollars in 2010. We use this massive expansion in ETF assets to study what drives ETF flows. Using a data set of over 500 ETFs from 2001 to 2010, we show that ETF investors chase returns in the same way as mutual fund investors. While there is an active debate about whether return chasing by mutual fund investors represents the pursuit of superior talent, the existence of return chasing in this passively managed environment should not represent a search for skilled managers. We also show that ETF flows increase following high volume, small spreads, and high price/net asset value ratios. Finally, we find little evidence of superior market timing in ETF flows. Our results suggest that return chasing in both mutual funds and ETFs is more likely the result of naïve extrapolation bias on the part of investors that has contributed to the growth of the ETF industry.     

中国黄金投资市场的现状及发展前景

文章指出,金价上涨并非推动中国黄金投资的唯一动力,中国黄金投资市场近年的快速发展在更大程度上是全球黄金市场金融属性增强和中国黄金投资追赶世界平均水平的结果。从宗教祭祀的神物和权贵财富的象征变为百姓资产组合的一部分和平常的投资标的,黄金投资的平民化是未来中国黄金投资市场发展的主动力。下一步,应积极推进黄金业务创新,加快黄金进入民间资产组合的进程。     

限售股个人所得税新政与企业所得税特别纳税调整分析——以"紫金富豪避税门"为例

紫金富豪避税门事件显示,上市公司限售股股东避税的灰色通道在于将法人股以成本价转让给关联自然人后再在二级市场套现.国税总局规定,自2010年起对个人转让限售股的所得应征收个人所得税.该规定部分堵塞了原有的避税漏洞,但无法追溯既往的限售股转让行为,对以限售股申购ETF行为是否纳税也未予以明确,且可能导致税收套利.税务机关应根据企业所得税法特别纳税调整的一般反避税条款,对无合理商业目的低价转让法人股权的关联企业进行纳税调整,达到反避税目的.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Revisiting the roles of gold: Does gold ETF matter?

This study investigates whether the role of gold changes due to the introduction of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) using sample data of seven countries in which physically-backed gold ETFs have been issued. The results show that the traditional roles of gold do change after the introduction of gold ETFs, particularly in the corresponding stock markets. The functions of hedge and safe haven provided by gold wear off during the post-ETF period in stock markets. In currency markets, however, gold still serves as a hedge and safe haven asset, and such effects become stronger during the post-ETF period. Moreover, gold ETFs play a role of relative strong safe haven than the physical gold does while the leading (lagged) stock returns extremely decline. Like the purposes of using physical gold assets, gold ETFs also provide hedge and safe haven effects to the exchange rate risks. Therefore, we might confirm that physical gold could be largely replaced by gold ETFs and investors could utilize gold ETFs to avoid potential risks in financial markets.     

基于GARCH-VaR模型的ETF基金市场风险的实证分析

ETF基金是我国少有的金融创新产品之一,然而在近年来急涨骤跌的股市中,ETF面临着很大的市场风险,但国内尚缺乏关于ETF基金市场风险的定性研究。同时在此次全球金融危机中,如何加强金融工具的风险管理已成为当务之急。因此,本文以我国上市最早的50E3T为研究对象,在正态分布、t分布与GED分布3种情况下,建立了GARCH族模型计算动态方差,研究了ETF基金的收益风险补偿问题与非对称信息冲击问题,接着用方差——协方差方法求出VaR值,在3种置信水平下通过与实际收益率的比较来度量市场风险,然后对VaR值的准确性进行检验,最后分析得出最适合估计ETF市场风险的模型。     

Optimal static quadratic hedging

We propose a flexible framework for hedging a contingent claim by holding static positions in vanilla European calls, puts, bonds and forwards. A model-free expression is derived for the optimal static hedging strategy that minimizes the expected squared hedging error subject to a cost constraint. The optimal hedge involves computing a number of expectations that reflect the dependence among the contingent claim and the hedging assets. We provide a general method for approximating these expectations analytically in a general Markov diffusion market. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we present several numerical examples, including hedging path-dependent options and options written on a correlated asset.     

(How) has the market become more efficient?

Using a portfolio of Dow Jones Industrial Average index constituents and the index ETF, we document significant intraday deviations from the law of one price. These are especially pronounced at very short time intervals. The extent of deviations is related to volatility, liquidity, and transaction costs of both the index constituents and the ETF. Further, the influence of news arrival, and liquidity (volatility) shocks on the deviations persists for several hours. Finally, we document significant decline (by at least 80%) in the deviations between 1998 and 2010. We find that this decline is largely due to decimalization, the repeal of the uptick rule, and the introduction of automated updating of the NYSE order book. Overall, our findings indicate an increase in operational market efficiency.