期权会计准则经济后果的实证研究及启示

美国现行的股票期权会计准则是准则制定者与利益相关集团博弈的结果,在此过程中,针对会计准则的经济后果的实证研究对准则的完善起着积极的推动作用。本文就相关实证研究结果进行分析和比较,并在此基础上对我国未来的股票期权会计准则的制定提出相关建议。     

Demand chain management in manufacturing and services: web-based integration, drivers and performance

This paper investigated the relationship between Internet-enabled supply chain integration strategies and performance in manufacturing and services. It summarizes the literature on demand and supply integration and describes four web-based strategies. A stratified random sample was collected from UK manufacturers and services, and there was strong evidence that demand chain management (DCM) led to the highest performance in manufacturing, but few signs of DCM in services. Manufacturers and services relying on only web-based demand or supply integration outperformed their low integration counterparts, but lagged DCM in manufacturing. The study also investigated DCM adoption drivers and found that rational efficiency and bandwagon effects drove change. The findings have some important implications for theory as well as for manufacturing and service companies interested in improving their performance.     

Nonparametric inference on multivariate versions of Blomqvist’s beta and related measures of tail dependence

We consider nonparametric estimation of multivariate versions of Blomqvist’s beta, also known as the medial correlation coefficient. For a two-dimensional population, the sample version of Blomqvist’s beta describes the proportion of data which fall into the first or third quadrant of a two-way contingency table with cutting points being the sample medians. Asymptotic normality and strong consistency of the estimators are established by means of the empirical copula process, imposing weak conditions on the copula. Though the asymptotic variance takes a complicated form, we are able to derive explicit formulas for large families of copulas. For the copulas of elliptically contoured distributions we obtain a variance stabilizing transformation which is similar to Fisher’s z-transformation. This allows for an explicit construction of asymptotic confidence bands used for hypothesis testing and eases the analysis of asymptotic efficiency. The computational complexity of estimating Blomqvist’s beta corresponds to the sample size n, which is lower than the complexity of most competing dependence measures.      

人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析

本文根据中国的14个主要贸易伙伴样本性质的不同，分别选用误差修正模型和几何分布滞后模型，检验了人民币双边汇率与双边贸易收支的关系，并计算分析了双边汇率对双边贸易收支的短期影响和长期影响及双边汇率对不同贸易伙伴的影响差别。分析表明，在长期人民币汇率贬值几乎能改善我国对所有贸易伙伴的贸易收支，马歇尔-勒纳条件成立；在短期人民币汇率贬值恶化我国对大多数贸易伙伴的贸易收支，马歇尔-勒纳条件可能不成立。双边汇率贬值对双边贸易收支的影响可能呈现“J”曲线或“W”曲线形态。人民币汇率变化对发达市场经济伙伴的贸易收支敏感度高于对其他贸易伙伴的敏感度，随着人民币汇率制度改革的深入，汇率的价格传递机制会逐渐完善，这些差别会逐渐缩小。     

中国税收与经济增长关系的实证检验

经验证据表明:我国GDP对税收有显著的正向影响;税收与国内生产总值的关系不会明显偏离均衡状态,税收与经济税源之间保持着合理的关系。从经济增长率最大角度,我国最优宏观税率应该是20%左右。税收应该随着经济增长而增长,宏观税率的提高要与经济增长适度,说明了“拉弗”曲线在我国的重要现实意义。     

全球经常项目失衡问题的实证研究

近些年,全球经常项目失衡问题成为经济学家竞相研究的热点问题,并提出了众多不同的观点。本文利用全球范围内52个国家或地区!"1980￣2004年的经济数据对影响经常项目失衡的多种经济因素进行实证研究,就当前分析全球经常项目失衡原因中的一些经济变量对经常项目的影响程度提供了经验分析,并且对解决当前全球经常项目失衡问题提出了相关建议。     

Factors facilitating and impeding the development of export market-oriented behavior: A study of Hong Kong manufacturing exporters

We test a model of the antecedents to market-oriented behavior in firms' export operations (i.e., export market-oriented [EMO] behavior). Using data from Hong Kong-based industrial manufacturing exporters, we explain 73% of the variance in EMO activity. Our findings confirm the importance of variables such as export coordination, export experience, and the export environment in determining EMO behavior levels. However, several hypotheses are refuted, contradicting previous research findings. For instance, in our sample, centralized decision-making generally is positively related to EMO activity—particularly under conditions of high environmental turbulence: this contradicts findings of studies in Western exporting businesses where centralization generally inhibits EMO behavior. Furthermore, unlike their Western counterparts, market-based reward and training systems and managers' export commitment and emphasis on market orientation do not predict EMO behavior. We suggest that these unexpected findings may be due to differences in culture between Asian and Western businesses.     

Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades

This paper presents a framework to model duration, volume and returns simultaneously, obtaining an econometric reduced form that incorporates causal and feedback effects among these variables. The methodology is applied to two groups of stocks, classified according to trade intensity. We find that: (1) all stocks exhibit trading volume clustering (which is significantly higher for frequently traded stocks); (2) times of greater activity coincide with a higher number of informed traders present in the market only for the frequently traded stocks; (3) the more frequently traded stocks converge more rapidly (in calendar time) to their long-run equilibrium, after an initial perturbation.     

上市公司经济增加值(EVA)指标应用的实证研究——基于信息技术行业

上市公司的业绩评价备受关注,评价标准的选择涉及到众多相关者的经济利益。本文选取经济增加值评价指标,以沪深两市上市信息技术行业作为样本,运用实证方法研究后发现,EVA评价指标与企业价值的相关度优于传统财务评价指标,能够较好的反映企业真实的价值创造能力。     

新疆教育与经济增长关系的实证分析

教育的良好发展能促进经济的持续增长，经济增长的质量又从根本上制约教育投入的力度，进而影响教育的持续发展。新疆教育与经济增长关系的实证研究呈现三个紧密相关：教育与经济增长总体上紧密相关；教育与第三产业从业人数及劳动生产率、高教发展与第二产业紧密相关；教育经费投入比重及支出结构与GDP总量及人均GDP紧密相关。