煤炭增碳剂商品归类化验关键点分析

煤炭、增碳剂商品的归类需要结合元素、成分含量、工艺过程、物理指标等多项指标进行分析,增碳剂、人造石墨等商品其元素均为碳,组分含量通常也无明显差异,加之行业标准表述与税则中的品名、注释分歧较大,此类商品的准确归类是税则27章的归类难点。本文对煤炭、增碳剂的归类化验关键点进行探讨,以便于精准化验、准确归类。     

A Copula Nonlinear Granger Causality

We propose a new copula nonlinear Granger causality test that is more robust than the current available linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests when there exists an asymmetric and nonlinear directional dependence. To perform the statistical test of the copula nonlinear causality, the Gaussian Copula Marginal Regression (GCMR) model and copula directional dependence (Kim and Hwang, 2017) are employed in this paper. By using GCMR and two-sample permutation test with rank sum statistic for the copula nonlinear Granger causality, we can confirm that the result of the proposed copula nonlinear Granger causality test is a reliable test through the simulated data and real data both for small and large sample sizes.     

Evaluation of import substitution strategy in Indian telecom sector: Empirical evidence of non-linear dynamics

The Indian telecom sector, post-liberalization, is characterized by the heavy dependence on the imports of telecom products, even though several policy initiatives have been taken by the government during the last three decades to reduce import dependence. This study investigates to what extent the policy measures adopted after 2012 have impacted the import, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and domestic manufacturing performance in the telecom sector. A series of non-linear time series techniques are employed to capture the complex dynamics among these variables. The outcomes of the study suggest that the import, FDI, and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the telecom sector share non-linear relationships that exhibit regime shifts, time-varying behavior, and asymmetry. The study highlights that the FDI drives the import and, in normal circumstances, FDI and imports have the potential to influence IIP in the telecom sector in the long-run. The findings indicate that the policy measures adopted by the government are justifiable as the import substitution strategies have the potential to get transmitted to the telecom sector in the future. Based on the empirical findings, the study proposes a set of policy measures, which should help the sector to grow intrinsically while lowering the import dependence.     

High‐involvement HRM,job satisfaction and productivity: A two wave longitudinal study of a Spanish retail company

The strategic human resource management literature lacks longitudinal studies, and the causal associations between human resource management (HRM) and organisational performance (OP) remain underexplored. We tested cross‐lagged relationships between high‐involvement work systems (HIWS), job satisfaction, and store productivity based on a large longitudinal dataset from the retail sector comprising two waves of data. The first wave (2011) included 6,016 employee responses from 104 stores, and the second wave (2015) included 5,842 employee responses from 94 stores. The quantitative study suggested counterintuitive negative associations. A subsequent qualitative study indicated that the association may have been conditioned by the recessionary action taken by the company in response to financial difficulties. The longitudinal research design, the compilation of data during difficult economic situations, and in a relatively unexplored sector such as the retail industry help to shed some light on the universalism of the HRM‐OP relationship and its boundary conditions.     

Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the US, using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and real GDP per capita, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2012:Q2. The full-sample bootstrap non-Granger causality test result suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality running from the real house price index to real GDP per capita. A wide variety of tests of parameter constancy used to examine the stability of the estimated vector autoregressive models indicate short- and long-run instability. This suggests that we cannot rely on the full-sample causality tests and, hence, this warrants a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to examine the causal relationship between these two variables. Using a rolling window size of 28 quarters, we find that while causality from the real house price to real GDP per capita occurs frequently, significant, but less frequent, evidence of real GDP per capita causing the real house price also occurs. These results imply that while the real house price leads real GDP per capita, in general (both during expansions and recessions), significant feedbacks also exist from real GDP per capita to the real house price.     

Empirical Analyses of Extreme Value Models for the South African Mining Index

While the classical normality assumption is simple to implement, it is well known to underestimate the leptokurtic behaviour demonstrated in most financial data. After examining properties of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Mining Index returns, we propose two extreme value models to fit its negative tail with a higher degree of accuracy. The generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD) is fitted using the block maxima approach, while the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) is fitted using the peaks‐over‐threshold method. Numerical assessment of value‐at‐risk (VaR) estimates indicates that both GEVD and GPD increasingly outperform the normal distribution as we move further into the lower tail. In addition, GEVD produces lower estimates relative to that of the historical VaR, and GPD provides slightly more conservative estimates for adequate capitalisation.     

ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

We examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.     

革命老区工业化、城乡差距与金融发展相关关系实证分析——以达州市为例

文章首先利用单位根检验分析了工业化、城乡差距和金融发展三个变量的平稳性。基于平稳性的结果建立了VAR模型。并在VAR模型的基础上,用脉冲响应检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验,对金融发展、工业化和城乡差距的相关关系和动态影响进行实证分析。结果发现,达州市的金融发展对工业化的促进作用表现为弱化趋势,仅在短期内能抑制城乡差距的扩大,在远期内这种抑制作用不能超长持久,因此,在革命老区,加大金融支持力度,提高金融信贷效率,对推动工业化的路径优化,抑制城乡差距扩大意义重大。     

转型经济体的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应

在总结巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应理论和相关研究成果的基础上,通过时间序列折线图的初步直观描述,再运用面板数据协整检验方法,对12个高增长的转型经济体样本期间的实际汇率与相对人均产出序列是否存在协整关系进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,样本期实际汇率与相对人均产出之间的协整关系成立。这表明,实现经济转型后的高增长转型经济体的实际汇率与相对人均产出之间存在着稳定的内在关联关系,其实际汇率基本变动趋势可由相对生产率的变动所解释。     

体育高考加试的应对策略

体育高考加试的重要性日见突出.为了应对这一节,高三体育教师必须采取合适的协调措施,预先解决突发状况的应对问题,并制定有效的学习策略.不权如此,还要引导学生做好相应的心理准备、训练学准备,等等.多管齐下,为体育高考加试的顺利完成打下扎实的基础.