人民币均衡汇率、汇率错位与出口的关系

运用1978～2005年的数据，分别计算了人民币均衡汇率水平和汇率错位程度，并运用E-G两步法、误差修正模型和二元Logit模型对人民币均衡汇率、汇率错位与出口之间的关系进行了实证分析。     

人力资本、物质资本与经济增长——基于中国数据的经验研究

通过测算我国改革开放以来经济发展中的物质资本存量和人力资本存量，并利用现代计量分析方法分析人力资本、物质资本与我国经济增长之间的动态相关关系，建立了三者之间的向量自回归模型以及长期均衡和短期均衡模型。分析结果表明：我国的GDP、物质资本和人力资本之间存在着长期均衡关系；虽然短期内的经济增长仍要依靠物质资本的大量投入，人力资本对经济增长的贡献较小，但从长期来看，人力资本对经济增长的贡献要大于物质资本，而且是经济增长的Granger原因。因此，我国应加大对教育的投资，提高人力资本存量。     

瓦尔拉斯新古典一般均衡体系质疑

通过对瓦尔拉斯一般均衡体系由简单的生产交换经济到扩大的包含资本形成方程在内的经济体系的分析,指出一直标榜为现代主流新古典理论支柱之一的瓦尔拉斯一般均衡体系内部存在着一系列逻辑矛盾,从而表明它描述的只是一种差别利息率下的实物经济一般均衡,而并不是现实资本主义经济关系下为获取统一利润率竞争的货币经济均衡。     

论经济理论中利他的均衡

对于利他行为,人们总是站在新古典经济学"经济人"的角度进行分析.我们认为,在一定的条件下利他行为能够使社会经济体系达到均衡并实现个人效用的最大化.利他主义是实现人类理性均衡的基本条件.     

以银行经营转型促进经济均衡发展

近年来我国经济一直是在一种不均衡的状态下实现快速发展的。以间接融资为主的融资方式，对银行本身乃至整个经济的可持续发展构成潜在威胁。为此，通过银行经营转型，优化储蓄向投资的转化路径，推动储蓄向消费的积极转化，是实现经济均衡发展的重要举措，同时也是银行体系本身可持续发展的需要。     

基于信息熵的山东省入境旅游消费结构演变分析

旅游者的消费结构对一个地区旅游经济的发展有重要意义。通过信息熵的引用，以山东省历年入境旅游者旅游消费结构统计数据为基础，归纳总结了山东省入境旅游者旅游消费特征和演变规律，并对山东省旅游消费结构的发展趋势进行了预测。     

考虑社会责任的异质有限理性制造商产量博弈均衡复杂动力学分析

通过考虑消费者剩余,企业利润中引入承担社会责任参数,建立了具有异质性有限理性的古诺寡头博弈竞争模型,分析利润相关参数对系统博弈均衡稳定性的影响,并进行了数值模拟。研究表明单方有限理性系统比双方有限理性系统稳定。产品成本超过一定阈值应避免产量竞争,可以通过承担社会责任,提升产品价格来增加利润,但当企业承担社会责任增加时,系统稳定性降低。此时降低调整产量的速度,观察竞争对手产量调整速度,避免系统进入混沌状态,失去最优产量优势。     

Optimal Environmental Policy Differentials in Open Economies under Emissions Constraints

Is there a case for preferential treatment of the exposed sector in an economy when compliance to an aggregate emissions constraint induced by an international environmental agreement is mandatory? This question is being debated in many countries in the context of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. We address the issue in a general equilibrium framework and theoretically cover several market structures, including perfect competition, the large country case and oligopoly. We identify the conditions under which preferential treatment of the exposed sector is not warranted from the point of view of maximizing social welfare. In addition, we demonstrate that in the case of oligopoly, instituting a more stringent environmental policy on the exposed sector might be profit-enhancing for this sector. This finding lends theoretical support to a specific interpretation of the Porter hypothesis.     

General equilibrium impact of an energy-saving policy in the public sector

We analyse a disregarded environmental policy instrument: a switch in government expenditure away from energy (or other natural resources) and toward a composite good which includes energy-saving expenditure. We first develop two variants of an analytical general equilibrium model. A composite good is produced with constant returns to scale, and energy is imported or produced domestically with diminishing returns, yielding a differential rent to its owners. The government purchases energy and composite goods from private firms. Such a policy unambiguously increases employment. It also raises private consumption and welfare under two conditions: (i) it is not too costly and (ii) the initial share of the resource is smaller in public spending than in private consumption, or the difference is small enough. We then run numerically a model featuring both importation and domestic production of energy (oil, gas and electricity), for the OECD as a whole. Simulations show that employment, welfare and private consumption rise. We provide magnitudes for different parameter values. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, International Society for Ecological Economics World Congress, CIRED seminar and EUREQua environmental economics seminar. We especially thank Michèle Sadoun and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.