湖北省夏玉米适播期分析

[目的]为因地制宜发展夏玉米生产,充分利用当地气候资源特点,尽量避免由于播种期不当导致的产量损失,为湖北省夏玉米种植管理提供理论依据。[方法]利用1981—2010年湖北省76个气象台站逐日气象观测资料和夏玉米历年生育期观测资料,借鉴国内外有关玉米气候适宜度模型相关研究,对参数进行本地化计算,构建气候适宜度模型。根据历年夏玉米播种情况及茬口安排,将夏玉米初播期定为5月11日,以7d为步长计算湖北省76个台站7个不同播期的气候适宜度,分析湖北省夏玉米不同播期温度、降水、日照适宜度及综合气候适宜度时空变化,并结合夏玉米抽雄期高温热害和拔节—抽雄期干旱指标统计不同播期灾害风险,综合确定夏玉米适宜播期。[结果]从气候资源角度来看,鄂西北大部、江汉平原及鄂东北西北部气候条件比较适宜夏玉米生长发育;从气象灾害风险角度来看,湖北省夏玉米播种时间应避开5月中旬,在6月15—22日播种可有效避免夏玉米抽雄吐丝期高温热害和干旱的发生。[结论]综合分析得出中东部大部最适宜播期在6月15—22日,其他大部最适宜播期在5月25—6月8日。     

面向帕累托最优的零售资产优化模型

当前国内银行业受利率市场化和互联网金融崛起挑战，面临利差持续收窄、经营成本上升等风险。零售银行业务因为风险分散、可以提供稳定低成本的资金而逐渐受到重视，银行业纷纷发力零售经营转型。聚焦零售业务常见的客户资产配置场景，提出一种在客户资产配置中可平衡银行和客户的价值分配和优化的方法，以客户价值度量零售客户通过持有银行的金融产品而获得的价值，以关系价值度量零售客户给银行带来的价值，给出客户价值和关系价值处于帕累托最优状态的资产配置方案。结果表明，该优化方案可以在满足客户或银行一方利益的前提下，实现另一方的收益最大化，有助于提升客户满意度，降低零售业务成本收入比，实现银行与客户双赢。     

Key Factors that Influence Consumer Preferences for Natural-Hyped Products

Natural-hyped products are receiving greater attention from and acceptance by consumers worldwide. Environmental factors that foster the demand for natural-hyped products, specifically hemp-based products include the deregulation of the cannabis industry and greater consumer desire for natural foods. Adding to this, the strategic use of stimulant type of cues (e.g., a cannabis leaf) included in product logos, ads, and packaging, seems to create hype associations when evaluating hemp-based products. In this context, this study presents empirical evidence (three experiments and two qualitative studies) that illustrates consumer preference for hemp-based products over ones that do not include hemp as an ingredient (hemp-free). The research focuses on identifying the psychological determinant that orients consumers towards hemp-based products. Findings suggest that the perceived naturalness is the psychological mechanism behind consumers positive evaluation of hemp-based products. Moreover, this study presents evidence that this evaluation is enhanced by the consumer's need for stimulation. Implications of the findings for the role of perceived naturalness and the need for stimulation in marketing strategies are discussed.     

Optimality in an OLG model with nonsmooth preferences

It is a well-known observation that, in the overlapping generations (OLG) model with the complete market, we can judge optimality of an equilibrium allocation by examining the associated equilibrium price. Motivated by recent development in decision theory under ambiguity, this study reexamines the above observation in a stochastic OLG model with convex but not necessarily smooth preferences. It is shown that optimality of an equilibrium allocation depends on the set of possible supporting prices, not necessarily on the associated equilibrium price itself. Therefore, observations of an equilibrium price do not necessarily tell us precise information on optimality of the equilibrium allocation.     

The optimal carbon tax mechanism for managing carbon emissions

Along Pigouvian lines, the carbon tax not only exceeds the carbon emission damage imposed on society, but ignores the potential cost from deliberate carbon abatement, which in turn challenges the stability and optimality of the Pigouvian solution. For correcting these distortions, this paper amends the standard Pigouvian version by using piecewise tax functions to approximate the social damage curve of carbon emissions. An optimal carbon tax mechanism is designed, where the tax is endogenously determined from social welfare maximization. With the help of a modification instrument, the carbon tax corrects emitters’ non-optimal individual decision and the social optimum is implemented efficiently. How to put the carbon tax into practice is examined under both the deterministic and stochastic modeling settings. In both cases, we demonstrate the structure and effectiveness of the carbon tax in detail. Moreover, a flexible adjustment tax scheme is proposed, which may produce the double-dividend effect that reduces carbon emissions and relieves financial burden of carbon abatement simultaneously. These may improve the application of market-based carbon-reducing tools in public management and pollution regulation.     

The use of the Pareto shape parameter as a leading indicator of process safety performance

Metrics addressing process safety incident performance typically focus on frequency and severity statistics. Often, these lagging metrics are not overly sensitive to actual performance, making trending and forecasting difficult. This article presents the results from a statistical study of a large incident dataset where changes in the Pareto shape parameter were observed as a function of time. This approach has been found to give far better insight into process safety performance than traditional incident metrics and readily relates back to concepts such as the “incident triangle” and “layers of protection.” Through the application of this approach, trends within process safety incident performance have been observed earlier, and more accurate forecasting has allowed for the identification of anomalies. In turn, these critical observations have allowed for the better structuring and targeting of process safety programs. Although incident data are generally considered as a lagging indicator, this approach has clearly reduced the lag time associated with this type of data and has given valuable insight into the current status of process safety performance. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 2009     

成本—收益视角下的城镇规模适度性分析——以京津冀城市群、山东城市群和中原城市群为例

研究目的:分析城市群在城镇化进程中的规模特点,对其发展的适度性进行判断。研究方法:基于城镇规模边际成本和边际效益的基本理论,通过三次非线性回归方程建立城镇最佳规模分析模型和城镇发展规模适度性判断模型。研究结果:(1)在成本—收益视角下分析城镇的最佳规模,不能只看取得的经济效益高低或投入成本的大小,要通过城镇经济发展效益扣减成本投入后的盈利效率来判断;(2)城镇规模适度性分析模型在对实际规模与最佳规模的对比分析基础上,再通过城镇规模发展阶段和城镇规模增长趋势对其城镇规模适度性进行判断。研究结论:(1)应严格限制城镇规模大于500 km2的超大城市的发展;(2)应根据具体情况适度发展城镇用地规模在300—400 km2的大城市;(3)应当增强经济的拉动作用,促进城镇用地规模在200 km2以下的中小城镇的发展。     

Destination loyalty and repeat behaviour: an application of optimum stimulation measurement

This paper reports on a study of consumer loyalty in the holiday destination selection process. The study does not define loyalty, but attempts to contribute to an understanding of the concept by applying a psychological measure of variety seeking directly to patterns of holiday destination choice. The measure used is based on the optimum stimulation level (OSL) concept. The guiding proposition in this study was that tourists with a high need for variety would display a varied pattern in their vacation destination selection and this assumption is modestly supported by the empirical findings. The results suggest that further experimentation with the OSL would be fruitful when combined with attitudinal measures and with precisely defined sets of tourist behaviours. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.