基于数据挖掘的上市公司财务舞弊识别研究

国内上市公司财务舞弊呈恶性发展之势,要推进证券市场的预警与监管,对上市公司财务舞弊行为的识别就变得意义重大。以148个财务舞弊上市公司和配对的非舞弊上市公司为样本,运用神经网络建立了上市公司财务舞弊识别模型。此模型对训练样本和测试样本的识别正确率分别达到74.58%和70%,能有效的识别出上市公司财务舞弊与否。结果表明,该模型可以用于上市公司财务舞弊行为识别,对有舞弊动机的上市公司起到威慑作用。     

苏里格气田苏54区块气水分布特征分析

在地层水化学分析、气水层的识别的基础上,对苏里格气田苏54区块气水的分布特征及分布规律开展深入研究。区块东部基本不产水,其余区域均有地层水的存在,并且在一定程度上具有连片分布的特征。2012年在东部筛选不产水的区域集中,Ⅰ+Ⅱ类井比例达到72.0%,平均无阻流量10.6×104m3/d,2口水平井试气均达百万方,开发效果良好。     

美国石油学会(API)管道标识标准先进性研究

管道标识有助于公众确认管道位置和规避潜在风险。针对管道标识设置原则较为简略、管道标识制作样式不一致、管道标识警示作用没有充分发挥等问题,梳理评价了管道标识国内标准。介绍了API RP 1109-2010《液体石油管道设施标识推荐做法》,该标准技术先进性表现在管道标识定义,管道标识类型多样化;管道标识设置合理且具有灵活性,兼顾与其他管道保护措施的协调性;空中巡检牌设置原则和设计样式等。通过借鉴API RP 1109-2010先进理念,对于提升我国管道管理维护技术水平具有重要意义。     

岩屑图像录井技术在海拉尔盆地的应用

为提高海拉尔盆地油气水层识别和岩性识别能力,进行了岩屑图像录井技术现场试验。阐述了岩屑图像录井技术的技术原理和特点,并对试验过程中的技术应用效果进行了总结分析,同时进行了经济效益初步评价,为岩屑图像录井技术在海拉尔盆地的推广应用提供可靠依据。     

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism*

We analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary‐policy transmission mechanism in the US, using a structural vector autoregressive model. If we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. Following a contractionary monetary‐policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is more gradual. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role than house prices. As a consequence, house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation.     

半波脉冲原理电缆识别仪的研制

文中介绍了由作者设计的一种新型电缆识别仪,可以在多条并行电缆中准确判断出所要进行施工或维修的停运电缆。文中对识别仪的原理进行了说明,并且给出了实验结果。     

视频智能监控检测道路拥挤度方法

近年来，视频监控系统已经广泛应用于道路交通管控中。本文通过检测移动物体的图像序列估算交通拥挤度。该算法是通过拥挤度估算模型计算单位时间内检测移动物体数量，得到实时的交通信息。本文应用MATLAB实现了这一估算方法，并在实际道路测试验证了该计算方法的可靠性。     

Event History Data and Making a History out of Cross-Sectional Data

At the turn of 20th century social scientists have built up a large stock of cross-sectional data-sets to study social change. However, scholars more and more collect event history data containing the exact timing of events. Comparing the (dis)advantages event history data are to be preferred. However, for research on value change the event history approach is inapplicable, since it is not possible to ask the timing of a value change retrospectively. I will illustrate that value change (i.e. cohort differences) can be studied adequately with cross-sectional data, if information about the historical context is added. For this purpose I test Inglehart's value change thesis.Interestingly, there are also topics in which cross-sectional data-sets are unnecessarily being used. Using research on secularization as an example, I show that the event-history approach can be used to answer the question whether the decreasing number of religious people concerns a cohort-effect. However, whatever data-set is being used, to study cohort differences, one should always give a theoretical answer to the key-question: what exactly makes cohorts different     

Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods

This article conducts an in-depth investigation into building a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and analysing the Malaysian monetary policy. Considerable attention is paid to: (i) the selection of foreign, policy and target variables; (ii) establish identifying restrictions and improve the estimates of impulse response functions; (iii) assess the importance of intermediate channels in transmitting monetary policy mechanism; and (iv) the way in which the 1997 Asian financial crisis affected the working of monetary policy. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy to study because, following this crisis, the government imposed capital and exchange rate control measures. The overall results suggest that the crisis and the subsequent major shift in the exchange rate regime have significantly affected the Malaysian ‘Black Box’. In the pre-crisis period, domestic variables appear to be more vulnerable to foreign monetary shocks. Further, the exchange rate played a significant role in transmitting the interest rate shocks, whereas credit and asset prices helped to propagate the money shock. In the post-crisis period however, asset prices play a more domineering role in intensifying the effects of both interest rate and money shocks on output, and the economy was insulated from foreign shocks.     

注册会计师从事司法会计鉴定业务的制度构建

注册会计师从事司法会计鉴定业务需要理论和制度的支撑。明确司法会计鉴定的概念和价值是构建注册会计师从事司法会计鉴定业务制度的理论前提。司法会计鉴定人必须具备注册会计师资格,鉴定主体是注册会计师而不是会计师事务所。鉴定启动制度应该保障诉讼权利的实现。鉴定人的诉讼地位与普通证人同等,鉴定人出庭作证、接受询问和交叉询问,是保证司法会计鉴定结论正确的有效途径。