INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT – THE EMERGENT PPP EQUITY MARKET

Increasingly governments are looking to private sector actors to invest in infrastructure projects. An emergent mechanism for such investment is the market in PPP equity. This is an aspect of PPPs that has to date had little empirical attention. This paper reports on the size and scope of the market in PPP equity sales within the UK. In the process, the nature of PPP projects and the existing rationales for the policy are critiqued. The paper concludes by laying out a number of potential research agendas focused on PPP equity sales including a call for reassessing theoretical perspectives.     

Conditional conservatism and the limits to earnings management

We examine the impact of conditional conservatism on earnings management. Our findings support the view that conditional conservatism reduces accruals-based earnings management but also triggers a trade-off between accruals and real earnings management. In our main tests we use the passage of SFAS 121 as a plausibly exogenous regulatory change that increased the level of conditional conservatism but did not materially affect earnings management. We find that, after the regulation, treated firms reduce accruals-based earnings management and increase real earnings management, and are less likely to be marginal or habitual beaters of earnings benchmarks. Given the crucial role of earnings for firm valuation and analysis, and that conditionally conservative accounting choices are observable, our results should be of wide interest for investment professionals.     

The autocratic roots of social distrust

This paper presents evidence that autocratic culture adversely affects social trust and political participation. We find that individuals whose ancestors migrated from countries with higher autocracy levels are less likely to trust others and to vote in presidential elections in the U.S. The impact of autocratic culture on trust can last for at least three generations while the impact on voting disappears after one generation. These impacts on trust and voting are also significant across Europe. We further access the robustness of our findings concerning selection into migration and other confounders such as home countries’ economic conditions, human capital stocks, and the strength of family ties.     

PREDICTING STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY WITH INVESTOR SENTIMENT INDICES: A RECONSIDERATION USING A NONPARAMETRIC CAUSALITY‐IN‐QUANTILES TEST

Evidence of monthly stock returns predictability based on popular investor sentiment indices, namely S^BW and S^PLS as introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) and Huang et al. (2015) respectively are mixed. While, linear predictive models show that only S^PLS can predict excess stock returns, nonparametric models (which accounts for misspecification of the linear frameworks due to nonlinearity and regime changes) finds no evidence of predictability based on either of these two indices for not only stock returns, but also its volatility. However, in this paper, we show that when we use a more general nonparametric causality‐in‐quantiles model of Balcilar et al., (forthcoming), in fact, both S^BW and S^PLS can predict stock returns and its volatility, with S^PLS being a relatively stronger predictor of excess returns during bear and bull regimes, and S^BW being a relatively powerful predictor of volatility of excess stock returns, barring the median of the conditional distribution.     

Trade uncertainty,income, and democracy

Existing studies establish a strong correlation between income and democracy. Little, however, is known about whether income shocks driven by non-economic fundamentals matter for political transitions. This study employs trade uncertainty as a non-economic fundamental and examines the effect that trade uncertainty driven income variations have on democratic transitions over the period 1960–2013. We find that higher income fosters democratic transitions, but this effect works mainly for developing than developed countries. Specifically, using trade uncertainty as an instrument, we find that the Polity2 score, a measure of democracy, increases by at least 2.3 points following a 1 percentage point increase in GDP growth. This positive association is robust to exploiting conditional heteroskedasticity for identification, using different time periods, including lagged Polity2 as a regressor, and using alternative measures of GDP and democracy.     

Does inflation kill? Exposure to food inflation and child mortality

Unlike extreme malnutrition shocks, such as famine and drought which grab the attention of the media, international aid organizations and policymakers, malnutrition due to food price hikes are often neglected and their impacts on children are not well known. It is well established that malnutrition during the critical periods of early life – between conception and the first 1000 days after birth – has lasting consequences on health and mortality. In this paper, using a uniquely constructed data from Ethiopia that takes advantage of high-frequency local retail food prices, we examine the impact of early life exposure to food price inflation on child mortality. Following survival events since conception, we estimate the causal impact of exposure to inflation during in-utero and infancy. The results show that exposure to a 10 percent inflation in staple food prices during in-utero decreases the survival of children under the age of five by about 5.4 percent. We also find that the impacts are non-linear depending on the specific month of exposure and substantially vary by observable characteristics and the type of staple food.     

Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

In order to study short‐run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) domestic maize markets within a Global Vector Autoregression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies, and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found significant between‐country market contagion and prompt regional price shock propagation when trade connection exists. Yet, the integration of SSA domestic maize markets within the continent and with global markets remains generally weak. Furthermore, under regular market conditions, most local price series appear to be more responsive to regional neighbors than to global shocks.     

How effective are trading pauses?

Exploiting Nasdaq order book data and difference-in-differences methodology, we identify the distinct effects of trading pause mechanisms introduced on US stock exchanges after May 2010. We show that the mere existence of such a regulation makes market participants behave differently in anticipation of a pause. Pauses enhance price discovery during the break but have adverse effects on price stability and liquidity after the pause. We find that pauses ultimately do not “cool off” markets but cause extra volatility. This implies a regulatory trade-off between the protective role of trading pauses and their adverse effects on market quality.     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

“1+X”制度下职业本科物流专业人才培养模式的转型发展

随着现代物流产业发展对高层次技术技能复合型人才需求的日益增加,“1+X”证书制度下物流管理课程体系建设是职业本科物流管理人才培养模式转型发展的重要支撑。通过分析“1+X”证书制度下物流管理职业本科人才培养的新生态与新动向,在遵循职业本科物流管理课程体系基本原则的基础上,提出“三能兼容+课程融通+横纵双跨”课程体系,以期探究物流管理人才培养转型之路。