0907号热带风暴“天鹅”预报服务经验分析

受热带风暴＂天鹅＂的影响,广西北海市出现了连续几天的降雨和海面强风。文章详述了北海市气象局应对热带风暴＂天鹅＂的具体预报及服务工作,为相关气象预报工作提供经验借鉴。     

浅谈数字化变电站中的光电互感器

对数字化变电站中光电互感器的工作原理、结构上的特点和优点进行简单分析,同时阐述光电互感器的应用对电能计量方面的影响。     

“ASP动态网页设计技术”项目教学法的研究与实践

项目教学法是师生通过共同实施一个完整的项目而进行的教学活动,整个教学过程中既体现教师的主导作用又发挥学生的主观能动性,充分展示现代高职教育"以实践动手能力为奉"的教学目的。本文对项目教学法与传统的教学法相比较,介绍了项目教学法,并结合实践教学,以项目为中心对ASP动态网页设计技术课程教学进行了详细的教学设计。以整体的项目为例,通过确定项目任务、项目实施方案和项目验收及综合评价过程,阐述项目教学法在ASP动态网页设计技术课程设计中的具体应用。     

信息系统的网络安全管理与维护

任何信息系统正常稳定的运行都离不开工作人员及时的维护和管理,除了对硬件设施的管理,软件的管理更为突出重要。现在信息网络基本遍及了社会生活的各个系统和部门,其安全性是不能忽视的,因此,文章对网络设备的维护和软件管理做了简要介绍。     

结合全双工与协作干扰的无线网状网物理层安全策略

针对无线网状网中缺少窃听者先验知识不利场景中的安全连接问题,提出了一种结合全双工和协作干扰技术的物理层安全策略。利用全双工通信中的自干扰消除技术和协作干扰技术,提出的安全策略可有效劣化位于信息传播范围内包括潜伏在接收节点附近窃听者的接收性能。为保证信息的安全传输给出了协作干扰节点的选择方法,基于随机几何等数学方法导出了选定路径的安全连接概率表达式。性能分析和仿真结果表明,所提方法与仅基于全双工或协作干扰技术的方法相比,其安全性能有较大提升。     

Labour market effects of retraining for the unemployed: the role of occupations

We analyse the impact of retraining for unemployed low-skilled job-seekers in Germany. This extensive training programme leads to a formal vocational degree, which is often required to access certain professions. Applying statistical matching methods, we find that on average, after a period with large lock-in effects, retraining strongly increases the employment probability of participants, especially women. We add to the literature by estimating the employment effects for different occupations for which participants are trained. Our results show that there are substantial differences depending on the occupation. As the composition of trained occupations differs for men and women, segregation could be a driver of higher employment effects for women. However, comparisons of men and women trained for the same occupations reveal that even after controlling for segregation, women profit more from retraining. While caseworkers are instructed to choose professions with high labour demand, other aspects, such as working conditions, preferences and aptitudes of participants, should be crucial in the choice of a suitable occupation. An individual assessment of the suitability of an occupation could therefore improve the overall effectiveness of the programme.     

Costs and effectiveness of fingolimod versus alemtuzumab in the treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK: re-treatment,discount, and disutility

Objective: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with disease modifying therapies (DMTs) who continue to experience disease activity may be considered for escalation therapies such as fingolimod, or may be considered for alemtuzumab. Previous economic modeling used Markov models; applying one alternative technique, discrete event simulation (DES) modeling, allows re-treatment and long-term adverse events (AEs) to be included in the analysis.

Methods: A DES was adapted to model relapse-triggered re-treatment with alemtuzumab and the effect of including ongoing quality-adjusted life year (QALY) decrements for AEs that extend beyond previous 1-year Markov cycles. As the price to the NHS of fingolimod in the UK is unknown, due to a confidential patient access scheme (PAS), a variety of possible discounts were tested. The interaction of re-treatment assumptions for alemtuzumab with the possible discounts for fingolimod was tested to determine which DMT resulted in lower lifetime costs. The lifetime QALY results were derived from modeled treatment effect and short- and long-term AEs.

Results: Most permutations of fingolimod PAS discount and alemtuzumab re-treatment rate resulted in fingolimod being less costly than alemtuzumab. As the percentage of patients who are re-treated with alemtuzumab due to experiencing a relapse approaches 100% of those who relapse whilst on treatment, the discount required for fingolimod to be less costly drops below 5%. Consideration of treatment effect alone found alemtuzumab generated 0.2 more QALYs/patient; the inclusion of AEs up to a duration of 1 year reduced this advantage to only 0.14 QALYs/patient. Modeling AEs with a lifetime QALY decrement found that both DMTs generated very similar QALYs with the difference only 0.04 QALYs/patient.

Conclusions: When the model captured alemtuzumab re-treatment and long-term AE decrements, it was found that fingolimod is cost-effective compared to alemtuzumab, assuming application of only a modest level of confidential PAS discount.     

层次分析在业主预测风险中的应用

在工程建设中,业主面临的索赔主要来自承包商,造成索赔的原因有很多种。本文分析了各种可能导致索赔发生的风险因素并应用层次分析法加以量化,然后根据量化的结果对各因素进行风险大小排序;根据排序结果找出主要的风险因素,进而达到对索赔风险进行预测和力求加大主动控制的目的。     

‘It Doesn't Matter How Big or Small You Are…There's a Position For You’: Body Image Among Female Tackle Football Players

The purpose of this study was explore the body image experiences of women who play tackle football. Data included semi-structured interviews with 15 players on a women's tackle football team in Western Canada. Data were analyzed thematically and objectification theory was used to interpret the findings. Themes that emerged included: a) improved body image through physical change, appreciation of function over appearance and shifting ideals of beauty; b) importance of a social atmosphere that celebrated diverse bodies; and c) negotiation of body image on and off the field. Research has documented a connection between body image and physically active leisure, but much about the nature of the relationship is still unclear. The findings of this study provide insight into elements of physically active leisure (e.g., social atmosphere or nature of the activity) which can be used to promote positive body image, health, and wellness in leisure settings.     

Factors Influencing the Physically Active Leisure of Children and Youth: A Qualitative Study

A phenomenological framework guided data collection and analysis of the prevalent influences on attitudes and behaviors of elementary, junior, and secondary school students towards their physically active leisure. Twenty-two students participated in individual in-depth interviews. Parental influence and outdoor play effected choice and level of physically active leisure for elementary students. Opportunities for organized and non-structured physically active leisure and friends were significant for junior students. Academic responsibilities and organized physically active leisure were influential for secondary students. Common threads were parental influence and the belief that the students were too old to start new activities. These findings highlight the importance of providing opportunities in safe environments for children and youth to participate in a variety of structured and non-structured forms of physically active leisure.