Post-SARS tourist arrival recovery patterns: An analysis based on a catastrophe theory

In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ravaged many Asian countries. The outbreak of SARS caused a crisis in the tourism industry in many parts of Asia in that year. The purpose of this study is to examine and to compare the post-SARS recovery patterns of inbound arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and USA in Taiwan. Taking the cusp catastrophe model as its foundation, this study proposes a well-grounded approach to understanding the nature of the recovery processes and to explaining the difference between the recovery patterns displayed by arrivals from Japan and those from Hong Kong and USA. Implications regarding tourism promotion policies are drawn from the analysis.     

Involvement theory in constructing bloggers' intention to purchase travel products

Blogs recently have demonstrated their enormous marketing potential, and more and more travel advertisements are being posted in blogs. In light of this observation, this study aims to provide insights into the structural relationship among travel bloggers' involvement level, the advertising effect from blog messages, and travel bloggers' intention to purchase travel products. A travel blogger's purchase intention model was constructed and empirically tested. A total of 900 questionnaires were distributed to identified travel bloggers; 398 valid responses were returned. The data were examined with Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results demonstrated the positive impact resulting from the ad effect as well as the ad effect on purchase intention, which could be verified in travel blog environments. It also indicated that high-involvement travel bloggers are more likely to form favourable impressions with regard to ads in travel blogs. Travel blogs play a positive role in the processing of ad messages; brand management is essential to business marketers since brand attitude is the most influential factor related to the ad effect on purchase intention. Meanwhile, while ad attitude is not significantly effective concerning purchase intention, it remains essential in forming brand attitudes. Several implications for posting advertisements in travel blogs will be discussed and suggested in this paper.     

我国29个省市区利用外国直接投资的空间效应:1985-2007年

本文借鉴近年来兴起的主流空间统计分析方法,对1985-2007年期间我国29个省市区实际利用外资的空间自相关性进行了研究,并测量了空间集聚效应和空间辐射效应。研究结果表明:自1989年以来,我国29个省市区实际利用外资存在空间自相关性;从空间集聚效应来看,空间集聚逐渐从珠三角、长三角向环渤海地区扩散,从东部沿海地区向中部地区扩散,与我国对外开放的格局基本保持一致;从空间辐射效应来看,具有正向辐射效应的高高集聚型省市区日益集聚在东部和中部地区,具有负向辐射效应的低低集聚型省市区日益集聚在西部地区。     

Interaction between message framing and consumers’ prior subjective knowledge regarding food safety issues

This study analyzed the interaction between message frames and recipients’ prior knowledge. The hypothesis is that less prior consumer knowledge will result in a larger framing effect. That is, if the subjective knowledge of the public is low, then the controversy created by mass media regarding a specific food-related event will be larger. Empirical results show that message frame has an influence on college students’ purchasing intentions. College students showed distinct responses in purchasing intention based on different headlines and different amounts of information within articles. The results further suggest that the framing effect depends not only on message frames, but also on the prior knowledge of the message recipient. Those who have less knowledge have larger variation in their purchase intention when responding to different message frames. This suggests that people with less knowledge are more likely to panic due to mass media reports regarding a food hazard issue. More informed consumers have less dramatic responses to food safety issues compared to less informed people.     

Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China

Using the Chinese stock market data from 1997 to 2013, this paper examines the “Sell in May and Go Away” puzzle first identified by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002). We find strong existence of the Sell in May effect, robust to different regression assumptions, industries, and after controlling for the January or February effect. However, part of the puzzle is subsumed by the seasonal affective disorder effect. We then construct a trading strategy based on this puzzle, and find that it outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy and could resist the market downside risk during large recession periods.     

Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the role of default risk in the momentum effect focusing on data from four developed European stock markets (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom). Using a market‐based measure of default risk, we show that it is not the hidden factor behind this effect. While the loser portfolio is characterized by high default risk, small size, high book‐to‐market and illiquidity, characterization of the winner portfolio is somewhat more complex. Given that the momentum strategy is the return differential between the winners and the losers, factors such as the stock market cycle or the evolution of momentum portfolios against their reference point make momentum profits difficult to forecast.     

民间借贷的组织化效率：山东省首家市级民间融资登记服务中心案例

本文通过对山东省首家市级民间融资登记服务中心的分析后认为,由政府主导的俱乐部性质的组织化管理安排,能够制定有效的外部规则,实现政府与市场的合理互动。其成功的运作,能够提高自发、无序发展的小额民间资本融资对接效率,促进民间融资市场规范化、阳光化发展。在当前民间融资风险频发背景下,具有较强的现实指导意义。     

三重视角下的国有银行股份制改革效果:一个分析框架

国有商业银行股份制改革是转轨时期中国金融市场改革的重中之重,对股改效果的客观评价影响着下一步改革。通过对已有文献的评述,我们发现国有银行问题带有浓厚的历史和制度色彩,不能简单地比照某一个国家的经验来评价股份制改革。为了完整地评价国有银行股份制改革效果,本文从微观、中观和宏观三个层面综合构建了一个分析框架,为分析、发现并解决国有银行股份制改革中的问题提供了可行的研究范式。     

中国对东盟纺织业投资的经济效应分析

中国对东盟纺织服装业的直接投资近年来发展很快。本文从中国对东盟纺织业加强投资的原因分析入手,提出了中国对越南、柬埔寨、印尼、泰国的纺织业投资的路径选择,进而具体分析了投资带来的缓解双方同构性出口竞争压力、提高双方纺织品贸易互补性、促进中国纺织产业结构升级的经济效应。在经济效应分析的基础上．指出中国加强和优化对东盟国家纺织业投资有助于提高中国纺织业整体的核心竞争力。     

数字金融会带来更高的零工工资吗?来自网络兼职招聘大数据的证据

畅通国内国际双循环是推进中国式现代化的实践创新,数字普惠金融作为推动中国经济增长的新动能,探究其对畅通双循环发展的相关机理和效应具有重要意义。利用2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明：数字普惠金融能够通过提升创业活跃度有效推动中国经济实现国内国际双循环发展;时间层面上,数字普惠金融对双循环发展的推动效应呈现指数倍增特征;空间层面上,其推动效应呈现空间异质性,在中西部地区更加突出,在东部地区却并不显著。据此,从完善国家金融体系、推动数字普惠金融创新、提升数实融合水平以及加强金融监管四个方面提出相应的政策建议。