环境分权对低碳发展的异质性影响——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

优化配置生态环境治理权责是实现绿色低碳发展的基础支撑。立足于我国省级面板数据,采用局部性分析视角揭示环境分权对低碳发展的异质性影响。基于莫兰特征向量的空间滤波随机效应模型表明,尽管两者之间非空间异质性不显著,但存在显著的空间异质性,呈现出“东北-西南”方向性差异,即东北方向倾向于加剧效应,而西南方向则表现为抑制效应。该发现回应了全局性分析中存在的“效应抵消”问题,同时也为当前环境治理体制改革提供了更具地域性的思路,有助于避免政策的“一刀切”问题。     

Dynamic and non-neutral productivity effects of foreign ownership: A nonparametric approach

This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high-tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non-Hicks-neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non-neutral productivity implications in developed countries. We propose and implement an econometric framework to estimate both effects using firm-level data from China's manufacturing sector. Our framework extends a nonparametric productivity framework, in which identification is achieved using a firm's first-order conditions and timing assumptions. We find strong evidence of dynamic and non-neutral effects from foreign ownership, with significant differences across investment sources. Investment from OECD sources is found to provide a long-term productivity boost for all but the largest recipients, while that from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan does not raise performance. These findings have implications for China's declining labor share and for the rising domestic value-added content of its high-tech exports.     

Peer effect on dividends and return comovement

This study investigates the stock return comovement of dividend-paying and nonpaying firms induced by peer effects of dividend payout policies. We consider peer effect as a channel that links a firm’s dividend initiation to firms that did not change dividend status. Dividend initiation attracts investors to the industry and puts pressure on peer firms to change their dividend policy, which leads to return comovement between nonpaying peers and paying firms. Using matched peer firms that resemble dividend initiators, we find that return comovement can be induced through an indirect channel without changes in style or category. Excess return comovement for firms without dividends is observed with dividend payers of the market and their industries through peer influence.     

监管信息披露、机构投资者行为与新股发行定价效率

经过三年多的科创板注册制试点后,我国的证券市场进入全面注册制的新时代。新的发行制度带来更充分的信息披露与更多的机构投资者参与,必然会对新股发行的定价效率产生影响。在收集了科创板开板至2020年9月共175家上市公司数据并进行实证分析后发现:监管信息披露增加了市场可信信息,提高了机构投资者参与询价意愿与申购数量,有利于吸引更多的机构投资者参与科创板市场交易。但监管信息披露同时降低了IPO定价效率,这是由于目前询价过程中采取高价去除的密闭平均价格拍卖策略,机构投资者为了避免机会错失而倾向于压低报价,从而导致发行价格下行与抑价率提高。此外,机构投资者行为在监管信息与定价效率之间发挥着重要中介效应。研究结果为发行制度进一步优化工作提供了经验证据和政策参考。     

企业社会责任对盈利质量的影响机理——媒体治理的调节作用

国民经济高质量发展需要高质量企业的助推,高质量的盈利是企业健康发展的基石。企业作为利益相关者资本投入的共生系统,其高质量的盈利依赖于企业对利益相关者的责任履行。现有研究中,关于企业对利益相关者的责任履行能否为自身带来经济回报的问题仍没有得出一致结论,且仅关注盈利数量,缺乏企业社会责任（CSR）对盈利质量的影响研究。针对这两个问题,细分CSR维度、区分企业异质性,研究CSR对盈利质量的影响关系及媒体治理在二者间的调节作用。研究结果表明：（1）对于样本总体,CSR对盈利质量具有显著的正向影响,并且媒体治理在二者间的影响关系中具有显著的正向调节作用,细分到对员工、供应商和消费者、环境的CSR维度,结论依然成立。（2）异质性检验发现：与国有企业相比,非国企CSR总体对盈利质量的正向影响更强,主要体现于对员工、供应商和消费者、环境的CSR维度。与非重污染行业相比,重污染行业CSR总体对盈利质量的正向影响更强,主要体现于对股东、供应商和消费者、社会的CSR维度。该研究结论可为企业的CSR战略决策过程提供理论依据和实践指导。     

基于境外经贸合作区的中国——东盟跨境产业合作对制造业竞争力的影响机理与共生效应研究

境外经贸合作区是中国与东盟国家开展跨境产业合作的重要平台。基于1997-2021 年中国和东盟国家层面的面板数据,将境外经贸合作区的设立作为一项准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,探讨中国—东盟跨境产业合作能否促进制造业竞争力的提高,并从外资流入、市场扩张和技术溢出三个方面对中国—东盟跨境产业合作影响制造业竞争力的中介渠道予以识别。研究发现,经贸合作区这一产业合作模式不仅有利于东盟国家制造业竞争力的提升,还促进了中国制造业竞争力的提高,这表明中国—东盟的产业合作是双方实现制造业共生发展的重要渠道。从机制分析来看,跨境产业合作主要通过市场扩张效应促进东盟国家制造业竞争力的提升。同时,跨境产业合作主要通过市场扩张效应和技术溢出效应促进中国制造业竞争力的提升。基于上述结论,从提升跨境产业合作平台能级,提高外资利用效率,加强双边对话交流,以技术创新赋能合作区发展,增加国内制造业竞争力等方面提出建议。     

Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach

This paper introduces an asymmetric robust weighted least squares (ARLS) approach to improve the forecasting performance of the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility. The ARLS approach down-weights extreme observations to limit the bad influence of outliers on the estimated parameters. Compared with existing robust regression methods, our model further takes into account the asymmetry of outliers using a class of kernel functions. Out-of-sample results show the ARLS approach can generate more accurate forecasts of the S&P 500 index realized volatility in the statistical and economic senses. The model that considers the asymmetry of outliers gains superior performance among various robust regression competitors. The forecasting improvements also hold in other international stock markets. More importantly, the source of the predictive ability of the ARLS model comes from the less biased and more efficient parameter estimation.     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

When income differences hurt or excite: The nonlinear effect of regional inequality on subjective wellbeing

Combining information from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and the European Social Survey, we investigate the relationship between subjective well-being and income inequality using regional inequality indicators and individual data. We assume that inequality aversion and perception of social mobility affect the impact of regional inequality on subjective well-being in opposite directions. We find evidence of an inverse U-shaped effect of inequality, where inequality starts to have a positive effect on subjective well-being that becomes negative with a switch point before the average of the Gini index for the entire sample. The rationale for our nonlinear finding is that Hirschman's tunnel effect (and the positive effect of perceived social mobility) prevails for low levels of inequality, while inequality aversion and negative relative income effects are relatively stronger when inequality is higher. Robustness checks on different sample splits are consistent with the hypothesis of the two drivers.     

Ideological spillovers across the Atlantic? Evidence from Trump's presidential election

Ideological spillovers refer to the modification of an individual's core beliefs after learning about other people's beliefs. We study one specific international ideological spillover, namely, the effect of the unexpected election of a United States (US) president (Donald Trump on the 9^th of November 2016), who openly questioned the so-called ‘core liberal consensus’, on European's core political beliefs. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) around the election event, we show that the Trump presidential election (TPE) gave rise to a ‘backlash effect’. That is, it steered core European beliefs in two specific domains, making Europeans more favourable to (i) globalisation and (ii) international mobility (about 10% change in the overall Likert scale range of the statement that immigrants contribute to a country). Contrasting with the hypotheses of ‘belief contagion’, we do not find evidence that TPE steered illiberal beliefs. Furthermore, TPE improved (deteriorated) the view Europeans had of their own country (the United States).