我国第三方物流业的市场绩效分析

随着物流业在世界范围内的蓬勃发展,对物流的研究成为理论界的一个热点,发达国家的实践表明,物流业正日益成为全球一个新的经济增长点,文章从产业经济学角度研究我国第三方物流的市场行为,从产业资源配置效率、产业规模结构效率和产值利润率等方面分析第三方物流业的市场效率。     

基于供应链的零售企业水平一体化边界分析

零售企业水平一体化扩张有无边界？或决定零售企业水平一体化扩张的因素是什么？本文通过研究认为，零售企业水平一体化扩张的经济性来源主要在于共同管理的经济性；而共同管理经济性的获得在于供应链管理；基于供应链管理之上形成的扩张支撑力是决定零售企业水平一体化边界的关键因素。     

山东省城镇居民文化消费分析

文化的发展对提高民族素质、促进经济发展起着重要作用。山东省城镇居民的文化消费情况,是要利用两类计量经济学模型来分析居民的文化消费意愿以及影响因素。研究结果表明,山东省城镇居民对文化生活十分重视,而居民收入对文化消费的影响是巨大的。     

Can the HM-test be brought to an end?

A significant change seen in the new regulatory framework for communications markets regards issues of market delineation. Relevant markets according to the new regulatory framework should be defined in accordance with competition law methodology/principles, most notably the so-called Hypothetical Monopolist Test (HM-test). Our discussion points to the conceptual and practical difficulties associated with evaluating the effects of a 5–10% price increase on the costs and therefore on the profitability of a hypothetical monopolist. Applying our analysis to fixed retail voice telephony markets we show that, in the presence of scale economies, final results crucially depend on assumptions about the cost function, in particular the relation of variable to fixed costs and the resulting (competitive) margin. The latter, in turn, will depend on the time horizon that is deemed to be relevant for market delineation purposes. Overall quantitative techniques applied to carry out the HM-test rigorously on empirical grounds are highly sensible to those assumptions a priori even if one assumes that (empirical) estimates of elasticities can be derived reasonably.*The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of RTR or TKK.     

中国黄金期货保证金水平——基于非正态分布下的研究

中国目前静态的期货保证金水平只是一个经验数字,对价格波动并不敏感,大部分时间投资者资金被过度占用,当市场波动剧烈时又不能覆盖足够的风险。本文研究了基于非正态分布下黄金期货保证金水平,利用广义极值分布和广义帕累托分布来拟合尾部风险。结果显示:黄金期货存在尖峰厚尾现象,在考虑流动性风险后,现有的保证金水平有下调空间,应设定为4.38%,当风险加大时应提高到5.15%。     

我国人工林木材深加工利用技术现状及发展趋势

随着我国木材工业由应用天然林资源向应用人工林资源的历史转变,必须加强人工林深加工及高效利用技术的研究。本文在分析国内外人工林木材深加工技术现状基础上,提出了我国人工林加工工业存在的问题,预测了今后十年人工林深加工及高效利用技术的发展趋势。     

建立会计信息观控模型的构想

本文以泛系理论和信息理论为基础,提出建立会计信息观控模型的构想,通过该模型对会计信息的量 化分析和观控,按照比较收益导向为企业经营活动的趋优化发展提供决策依据。     

邮电通信业市场势力测度及对行业发展影响的实证分析

测度市场势力是监控垄断行业滥用市场势力和反垄断的前提,价格—边际成本差额(即勒纳指数)测度法是广泛认可的市场势力测度方法,但由于边际成本的不可获得性,实际上难以直接应用。本文以广受关注的邮电通信业为例解决了这一难题:基于行业数据特征,通过适当变换替代了经济学难以度量的边际成本和实物量,得到了一种能直接计算勒纳指数的方法,该方法适合于观察中长期市场势力,计量分析中明显优于使用价格—平均成本替代价格—边际成本的功效。基于测度结果,实证了市场势力、技术进步(考虑动态效率)、市场结构变化对行业发展的影响。研究发现,技术进步对行业增长有大的贡献,但市场势力产生了负效应,电信业市场结构调整没有达到业务分拆的初衷。上述研究方法和结论对政府制定垄断行业价格成本监审办法和反垄断立法有借鉴意义。     

The Moral Hazard Play: A Review of The Chastening: Inside the Crisis that Rocked the Global Financial System and Humbled the IMF

We estimate the influence of trade preferences granted by Argentina on the origin of its imports. We try to identify if changes in Argentina's trade policy toward a set of countries had a differential effect, depending on whether goods were already traded, or on the contrary, if tariff changes affected mostly imports of new goods. We distinguish between the effects of changing tariffs and changing trade preferences. The econometric evidence shows that the effect of changes in tariff preferences on the probability of Argentina importing from other Asociación Latinoamericana de Integración (ALADI) members has been rather small, with most of the effect being explained by changes in tariff rates levied on imports from these countries. This result is stronger in the case of imports from Brazil.