Financial Crises as a Phenomenon of Multiple Equilibria and How to Select among Them

When equilibrium is indeterminate (i.e., not unique), applied theory often obtains uniqueness either via ad hoc sunspots or via global games. This paper highlights the relative merits of a third selection mechanism—best-response dynamics (BRD)—in the context of various financial crisis frameworks. For example, in the context of a bank run, selection via BRD is preferred (to ad hoc sunspots) because it provides an explicit coordination narrative and (to global games) because it accounts for the fact that depositors realistically may decide to join or leave a bank's queue upon observing its length.     

Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming

With gradually progressing climate change in the future, the frequency and scale of hot summers like those observed in various places around the world in recent years will undoubtedly increase, giving rise to strong concerns over increased risk of death due to heat stress. Based on this background, we have developed a method to assess future changes in mortality due to heat stress with the entire globe as the target, and performed trial calculations using this method. The purpose of this report is to draw people's attention to the possible severe consequences of climate change by presenting the severest estimates in the uncertainty range due to adaptation/acclimation expected in the future, so as to induce further analysis and discussion on policies and measures. For the trial calculations, future changes in temperature were derived from the results of simulation using an Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model with the highest spatial resolution in the world at the time of the study. Population densities were assumed not to alter in the future. Assuming that no adaptation or acclimation takes place, when the rates of change of excess mortality due to heat stress are examined by country, the results of our calculations show increases of approximately 100% to 1000%. It is confirmed that the burden of climate change impact is quite unequal among countries, at least from the viewpoint of heat stress mortality. When considered together with present population densities, significant increases in excess mortality density can be seen in China, India, and Europe. These regions are characterized by large losses due to climate change in absolute quantitative terms. The need to consider the adoption of adaptation measures is therefore most urgent in these regions.     

Spread component costs and stock trading characteristics in the Spanish Stock Exchange. Two flexible fractional response models

This paper investigates relationships between the spread component costs (adverse selection, order processing and inventory costs) and stock trading characteristics in the Spanish Stock Exchange (SSE), taking into account the random nature of these costs. First, we analyse the statistical properties of estimated spread components in the market, which are obtained by using two statistical models to decompose the bid–ask spread. We then propose a fractional response regression model based on two flexible cross-sectional probability density functions with covariates which accommodate certain aspects of the empirical estimates, such as skewness and bounded distribution. Our model has two main advantages: (i) it can be implemented easily in a maximum likelihood framework; (ii) in contrast to linear regression models, it provides a useful estimate of the statistical significance of the parameters, and predicts costs not only at the conditional mean but also by using quantiles of the estimated conditional distribution. The empirical results corroborate the presence of statistically significant large order processing costs and smaller adverse selection and inventory costs in the SSE. These spread components have a skewed empirical distribution and the proposed fractional regression models represent the behaviour of these costs reasonably well, surpassing the linear regression model in various specification tests.     

满映射Logistic数字混沌序列的产生及性能分析

Logistic映射形式简单,但表现出了复杂的动态性能。以满映射Logistic混沌序列为 对象,讨论了混沌序列数字化的两种方法,推导了数字混沌序列比特位分布概率,计算了截 短数字混沌序列的相关性能。结果表明,在不变分布偶对称的情况下,两种方法得到的数字 化混沌序列都是“0”“1”等概率的,截短序列的自相关函数旁瓣方差和互相关方差均等于 序列长度N的倒数。对数字化Logistic混沌序列进行了数值仿真,所得结果与结论相吻 合;仿真结果还显示,自相关旁瓣和互相关均服从高斯分布。研究结果使得能够从理论上对 一类数字混沌序列的特性进行整体把握,超越了经验性的结论,便于在有关系统中进行应用 分析。     

一种码元宽度部分重叠的chirp-rate调制高效传输方法

chirp-rate调制是线性调频扩谱通信的一种调制样式,具有很强的抗多径和抗多普勒频移 能力。为进一步提升chirp-rate调制码元传输的带宽利用效率,提出了一种码元宽度部 分重叠的chirp-rate调制高效传输方法。然后,推导了其带宽效率提高倍数。接下来,基 于分数阶Fourier域解调而推导了单个码元宽度内不同调制信号的分数阶傅里叶谱对正确解 调的影响,并据此导出了部分重叠传输模式下的带宽效率提高倍数最大值的解析表达。最后 ,通过仿真分析验证了上述理论推导的正确性。     

当前世界经济危机与20世纪30年代经济大萧条的比较分析

当前世界经济危机与20世纪30年代经济大萧条是世界经济史上最严重的两次经济危机。这两次危机尽管发生的时代背景不同,但是仍具有诸多可比性,通过比较分析能够得出一些有益的启示。两次危机具有危机前＂虚假＂繁荣、经济泡沫化、危机的国际传导机理以及相似性的对策之争四个方面的共同特征,但是两次危机在诱因和根源上呈现不同特征。因此,应对当前世界经济危机不宜照搬传统的＂新政＂,而应采取新的对策思维与措施。     

Implementing Experiential Action Learning in International Management Education: The Global Business Strategic (GLOBUSTRAT) Consulting Program

This paper discusses the theoretical foundations and implementation challenges and outcomes of a unique “hands‐on” global consulting program that is integrated into an international EMBA program for mid‐career and senior American and European managers. It details the challenges for the integration of experiential action learning, double‐loop learning, service learning, and tacit learning into global management education and discusses the value of such integration for the EMBA‐participant's learning experience. The lessons learned from the implementation of the use of integrated global consulting based on an experiential action learning model on EMBA education are discussed. The andragogical model of education used should be a useful guide for designing and implementing experiential action learning based MBA/EMBA programs.     

杜甫诗歌在越南的接受与传播

梳理了20世纪以前和20世纪至今两个阶段杜诗引进越南院校课堂的历史,探讨越南高等院校在教材、参考资料、课程以及学位论文中所选讲和研究杜诗的情况,分析越南初中、高中学校在教科书和参考资料中所选杜甫《茅屋为秋风所破歌》和《秋兴其一》的讲授方式,指出杜诗在中国诗歌史上的崇高地位、杜诗的精神与越南人民生活体验的契合、越南科举制度对诗歌创作的推动,是杜诗在越南影响深远的原因。     

基于全球视角的武汉光电子产业竞争力提升研究

作为中国第一个国家级光电子产业基地,武汉“中国光谷”经过十多年的发展形成了较强的影响力。面对国内外新的区域竞争压力,如何实现与国际光电子市场同步发展,提高国际市场知名度与占有率,将武汉“中国光谷”打造成享誉世界的东方“硅谷”,成为武汉光电子产业界面临的重要课题。本文基于全球视角分析了武汉光电子产业的发展现状．从能量光电子、信息光电子、消费光电子三大领域剖析了武汉光电子产业发展过程中存在的问题,借鉴美国、日本和台湾等地的成功发展模式,探索了武汉光电子产业国际竞争力提升的路径。     

金融危机成因的比较分析——以1997及2007年金融危机为例

1997年金融危机发生在金融、经济、制度全面落后的外围国家,而2007年金融危机则发生在金融、经济、制度高度发达的中心国家,但两者都是由世界经济体系的薄弱环节断裂导致的,都是对制度模式、经济失衡和国际货币体系的一种调整。两次金融危机成因的共同点在于金融监管缺位、金融市场体系不完善、金融机构治理结构存在缺陷、相对较低的居民收入、过度的国家干预、全球经济失衡、美元本位的国际货币体系和流动性泛滥、技术创新衰竭和市场经济进行周期性调整。两次危机成因的不同点包括引发两次金融危机的直接诱因、震源、技术创新衰竭具体类型、具体制度模式不同。