CALL及其制约因素刍议

当今世界,计算机已被广泛应用于语言教学。计算机辅助语言教学经历了行为主义的计算机辅助语言教学、交际的计算机辅助语言教学和整体的计算机辅助语言教学三个主要阶段。运用计算机辅助语言教学有助于激发学生的学习动机,为学生提供真实的学习材料,促进学生进行更广泛的相互交流活动,提高学生的个体化学习能力,鼓励学生从单一信息源中脱离出来,促进全球化的共识等。但是,计算机辅助语言教学也有其制约因素,文章从财政困难、计算机软件和硬件的可利用性、技术与理论方面的障碍以及技术的接受等四个方面对此进行了阐述。     

工程项目计划管理系统设计与实现

本文通过研究分析工程项目管理的具体运行过程,采用结构化分析方法对工程项目组织机构、业务活动进行了详细的系统分析,建立了工程项目计划管理系统基本数据库,具体实现了工程项目计划管理系统的各功能模块,提出运用计算机辅助决策技术开发工程项目计划管理系统的必要性和可行性.     

基于截尾分布理论预测开放式基金大额赎回量

提出了开放式基金的巨额赎回量和大额赎回量的概念，将复合泊阿松分布和截尾分布理论运用在大额赎回量概率计算之中，得到了计算公式。由于开放式基金流动性风险主要来自于大额赎回量，因此使用截尾分布方法预测未来近期的大额赎回量更合适。推导出了正态分布下大额赎回量的期望和方差计算公式。为基金管理人合理规避这种流动性风险提供了一种预测方法。     

Demand‐side housing policy in Costa Rica: a response to the housing deficit

The purpose of this study was to establish what the housing needs of Costa Rica are and to assess what policies have been implemented to respond to their housing deficit. In order to answer these questions, a combined methodology consisting of primary and secondary data was used. Using open‐ended questions and a topic schedule, face‐to‐face interviews with Costa Rican housing authorities were conducted at the interviewee's work place in Costa Rica in May 2003. The most recent secondary data available in the country was used to compute the housing deficit and to study the effects of demographics on current housing needs. Sources of the secondary data were the Costa Rica Ministry of Housing and Human Settlements, and the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The Costa Rican government has made great progress in reforming the housing finance system in order to meet the housing demand of its citizens. In 2002, Costa Rica had a 75.6% home ownership rate. Yet, even in light of the housing system's current success, many social, economic and political barriers threaten to undermine its accomplishments and the peoples’ ability to obtain safe and affordable housing. The paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of the current housing finance system as well as the government strategies for addressing difficulties.     

基于制约理论的成本管理模式研究

环境的变化要求相应的成本管理模式发生变革。本文首先分析了环境变化对企业成本管理的影响,之后对作业成本法的管理思想的前提假设进行分析,指出它对于现代企业成本管理的局限性及其产生这些局限性的主要原因。最后,在分析制约理论核心原理的基础上,提出了一种基于制约理论的成本管理模式,试图为研究适应现代企业的成本管理模式提供新的思路。     

国有企业“债转股”政策:功能缺陷与制度依赖——项基于国有企业“债转股”政策跟踪调查的研究

伴随着我国经济体制改革向纵深发展,国有企业负债比率过高的问题更加突出显示出来。为了解决这个问题,我国实施了“债转股”政策。本文讨论四个命题:(1)国有企业是负债比率过高还是收益率过低;(2)“债转股”政策究竟是使国有企业“财务解困”还是“体制解困”;(3)“债转股”政策究竟是转移金融风险还是化解金融风险;(4)资产管理公司为国有企业和国有商业银行解困,将来谁为资产管理公司解困。本文认为“债转股”政策设计存在功能缺陷与制度依赖。国有企业“债转股”政策的成功依赖于国有企业(商业银行)现代企业制度的建立与完善。     

企业并购活动中目标企业选择的层次分析评估研究

企业并购是企业进行资本扩张、促进企业间存量资源合理统流动的重要途径。对企业并购中的目标企企的选择、价值评估进行研究，构建我国企业并前过程中目标企业选择的评价指标体系，运用AHP法对目标企业选择进行定量化评估，将有利于企业通过并购后，实现资源的最优配置．保证企业经营机制协调、有效地运行。     

基于改进技术接受模型的ERP系统实施方案研究

为了解决ERP系统实施过程中的诸多管理问题,引入了技术接受模型,分析了其心理学基础并做了改进。在此基础上提出了系统实施的原型方案,为企业顺利实施ERP系统提供新的思路和方法。     

基于Agent的物流配送决策支持系统研究

物流配送是一个涉及多种影响因素的综合性复杂问题。本文探讨了基于Agent(智能体技术)的物流配送决策支持系统设计，在该系统中的智能体模型中引入学习机制，初步建立了一个具有专家系统特点、可以不断进化的物流配送决策支持系统。     

Robustness issues in multilevel regression analysis

A multilevel problem concerns a population with a hierarchical structure. A sample from such a population can be described as a multistage sample. First, a sample of higher level units is drawn (e.g. schools or organizations), and next a sample of the sub‐units from the available units (e.g. pupils in schools or employees in organizations). In such samples, the individual observations are in general not completely independent. Multilevel analysis software accounts for this dependence and in recent years these programs have been widely accepted. Two problems that occur in the practice of multilevel modeling will be discussed. The first problem is the choice of the sample sizes at the different levels. What are sufficient sample sizes for accurate estimation? The second problem is the normality assumption of the level‐2 error distribution. When one wants to conduct tests of significance, the errors need to be normally distributed. What happens when this is not the case? In this paper, simulation studies are used to answer both questions. With respect to the first question, the results show that a small sample size at level two (meaning a sample of 50 or less) leads to biased estimates of the second‐level standard errors. The answer to the second question is that only the standard errors for the random effects at the second level are highly inaccurate if the distributional assumptions concerning the level‐2 errors are not fulfilled. Robust standard errors turn out to be more reliable than the asymptotic standard errors based on maximum likelihood.